Pointless referendum on Scottish independance set for 2014

[Imran Siddiqui]

Furthermore, territorial waters are 200 miles from coastline... in every seaward direction, leading to massive overlap. In addition, as pointed out by kentonio, if the Shetlands and Orkneys decide to stay with the UK, their territorial waters would completely overlap with Scotland.

[C0ckney]

Except that that also assumes that Shetland/Orkneys etc want to join an independant Scotland, something which is far from certain. How about the Borders? Do they get parcelled off to Scotland, regardless of the peoples wishes? There seems to be an assumption that 'self determination' only applies to a country that has only really existed on paper for the last 300 years. If they keep pushing this, there are likely to be some very unpleasant surprises waiting for them along the road to independence.

the land border between england and scotland is set by the treaty of york.

as i understand, there isn't a mechanism for the orkneys or shetland to leave scotland. perhaps they'd have to organise their own independence movement.

[Imran Siddiqui]

The Treaty of York also stated the Scottish King would pledge his fealty to the King of England. Which was broken a few centuries afterwards .

[kentonio]

the land border between england and scotland is set by the treaty of york.

So the Act of Union is something that can just be discarded, but the Treaty of York removes peoples right to self determination for all time?

as i understand, there isn't a mechanism for the orkneys or shetland to leave scotland. perhaps they'd have to organise their own independence movement.

There have already been low level discussions about whether they want to remain with the UK or even rejoin Norway or just go independent of course if they don't want to join the Scots. If the SNP are going to run around shouting about freedom and self determination, then they can hardly deny that to anyone else, right?

[C0ckney]

Furthermore, territorial waters are 200 miles from coastline... in every seaward direction, leading to massive overlap. In addition, as pointed out by kentonio, if the Shetlands and Orkneys decide to stay with the UK, their territorial waters would completely overlap with Scotland.

as i understand, if the orkneys and shetland were to become part of the england, they would be defined as an enclave, which means that they would be restricted to a 12 mile boundary for territorial waters.

however there are other potential scenarios, such as them becoming a crown dependency (similar to the isle of man) or independent, which could lead to all sorts of interesting consequences. although i don't think any of those are seriously going to happen.

[C0ckney]

So the Act of Union is something that can just be discarded, but the Treaty of York removes peoples right to self determination for all time?

the act of union would only be discarded even if it the democratically expressed wish of the scottish people to do so.

what do you mean by self-determination? what exactly are you proposing, that independence is decided town by town, village by village, street by street?

There have already been low level discussions about whether they want to remain with the UK or even rejoin Norway or just go independent of course if they don't want to join the Scots. If the SNP are going to run around shouting about freedom and self determination, then they can hardly deny that to anyone else, right?

i think it's highly unlikely that any of those scenarios will come to pass.

[Imran Siddiqui]

IIRC, international law on exclusive economic zone territorial waters simply extends 200 miles from borders - regardless of their status. It is why the US has the largest maritime economic zone in the world (by a good deal) and France is 2nd.

[MikeH]

well territorial waters are the subject of international treaties, and under those, scotland would get the lion's shares of the oil and gas.

as mike says there might be some negotiation about oil revenues to take account of capital investment or some such. i think though, that the default assumption should be that scotland gets the oil and gas in its territorial waters.

But the companies who actually own the rigs have signed deals with the UK government at the moment. Who knows what the terms of those deals are and whether/how they can move if broken?

[C0ckney]

i'll have to check, it's been a while since i looked into this.

x-post: responding to imran.

[Imran Siddiqui]

i'll have to check, it's been a while since i looked into this.

x-post: responding to imran.

I think you are confusing the soveriegn territorial waters with the exclusive economic zone.

[kentonio]

as i understand, if the orkneys and shetland were to become part of the england, they would be defined as an enclave, which means that they would be restricted to a 12 mile boundary for territorial waters.

however there are other potential scenarios, such as them becoming a crown dependency (similar to the isle of man) or independent, which could lead to all sorts of interesting consequences. although i don't think any of those are seriously going to happen.

Why not? No-one seriously thought Scotland was going to get a referendum on independance until a few years ago either. There's a lot of these little issues bubbling under the surface that haven't been thought all the way through.

the act of union would only be discarded even if it the democratically expressed wish of the scottish people to do so.

True, what about if Orkney decides it wants to be part of the UK? After all it was actually Norwegian until 500 years ago.

what do you mean by self-determination? what exactly are you proposing, that independence is decided town by town, village by village, street by street?

Nope, I'm saying that when you open a can of worms by insisting on peoples right to self determination, then you're opening yourself up to be asked the same questions. It may sounds unlikely or implausible, but there are people in Orkney and Shetlands and the Borders asking these questions right now.

i think it's highly unlikely that any of those scenarios will come to pass.

You may be surprised. It's already something that's been discussed by the Lords and by Shetland MP's in the recent past.

[C0ckney]

But the companies who actually own the rigs have signed deals with the UK government at the moment. Who knows what the terms of those deals are and whether/how they can move if broken?

that's certainly something that would come up in any negotiations.

i would imagine that there must be some mechanism, in event of the UK no longer controlling those waters, to cancel the contracts or have a similar arrangement with the new scottish government. presumably this would include some compensation for the UK government. as you say though, it's rather unclear exactly what would happen.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Also, I believe on the issue of breaking up of a country due to self-determination, international law on this subject indicates that the remnant county must approve the seperation as well - this came up during the question of Quebec leaving Canada.

[kentonio]

Technically probably, but the long standing thing here has been that if a majority want to leave, we're not going to try and force them to stay. Same policy we have with Northern Ireland.

[MikeH]

And be happy with the terms.

Anyway, comes back to this - any economic predictions based on getting 100% of oil and gas revenues are dicey.