Pointless referendum on Scottish independance set for 2014

[MikeH]

SNPs model for how they are going to be brilliant financially are mostly based on what Ireland did. Er... Oh.

[kentonio]

There should be some rule that if a referendum fails then it shouldn't be allowed back on the ballot for at least another 25 years.

The understanding is that if it fails it's off the table for a generation.

...Which means it actually doesn't really look better now than in twenty years for anyone thinking with some kind of long term focus since it's presumably permanent, or at least supposed to be a lasting separation.

Permanent.

as the figures imply, the UK is currently borrowing a lot of money to cover the difference between its tax revenues and expenditure. presumably an independent scotland would do the same. if this were not possible, they would have to find more revenue or spend less.

This is where the nationalists start getting very optimistic, they assume they can just borrow at the same level as the UK yet don't have a clear answer for things like the currency they would be linked to, what their debt rating would be etc.

as i have already said, the economic case for an independent scotland looks much better now than it will in 20 years.

Which is scary, because it looks pretty bloody awful right now. The sad thing is that the nationalists truly seem to believe their own bull****. They're running around telling everyone that after the oil they'll just become 100% energy independant from renewables, with so much excess that they'll make a fortune selling energy to the continent.

[kentonio]

Oh and the defence thing really pisses me off. The nukes are based in Scotland at the largest floating structure in Europe. The SNP insist that the nukes would have to go, yet when questions are raised about their contribution to moving this vast facility, they start going 'oh why should we have to pay!?' blah blah. They also envisage a tiny defense force, not being in NATO etc, but presumably just being guaranteed safety because they're next to the UK. Typical SNP, they don't want to have to pay for any contribution to independance, they don't want to have to deal with any of the hard realities of being a seperate country, they just want all the good bits and to pretend the rest will magically just solve itself. If they do vote for independance I think the Scots are going to get a very, very sharp wakeup call when they realise that the rest of the UK is going to start fighting for the best deal for the rest of us.

[Felch]

Scotland would be guaranteed defense the same way the rest of the world is; by the USA. Don't get it twisted, Kenny, nobody fears England with your one planeless carrier.

[MikeH]

There's also no guarantee they'll get 100% of oil tax revenue.

[kentonio]

Scotland would be guaranteed defense the same way the rest of the world is; by the USA. Don't get it twisted, Kenny, nobody fears England with your one planeless carrier.

Britain are capable of standing up against any small/medium size aggressor and have treaties in place against larger enemies. As part of those we can contribute a decent size force of our own. Europe doesn't need you any more, feel free to shove your oversized military up your asses.

[kentonio]

There's also no guarantee they'll get 100% of oil tax revenue.

This is very true.

[MikeH]

In England we're probably slightly better off in the future if they leave. Financially at the moment it's not much different. I'm sure their best and brightest will still come and work down here because they'll still have no jobs, and the oil is running out so they won't be a net drain on the economy.

Oh and their health is absolutely appalling and getting worse so will save us NHS money too.

[Dr Strangelove]

We go through the same thing with Puerto Rico every decade or so.

[MikeH]

They aren't quite as poor and unhealthy as the scots...

[Imran Siddiqui]

There's also no guarantee they'll get 100% of oil tax revenue.

This is the key. Scotland seems to be operating under the assumption that they get all that oil revenue. That's a silly assumption to make.

[MikeH]

And it's incredibly short termist, and relying on that a fluctuation in oil prices could ruin them.

It's ludicrous economically.

[C0ckney]

well territorial waters are the subject of international treaties, and under those, scotland would get the lion's shares of the oil and gas.

as mike says there might be some negotiation about oil revenues to take account of capital investment or some such. i think though, that the default assumption should be that scotland gets the oil and gas in its territorial waters.

[kentonio]

Except that that also assumes that Shetland/Orkneys etc want to join an independant Scotland, something which is far from certain. How about the Borders? Do they get parcelled off to Scotland, regardless of the peoples wishes? There seems to be an assumption that 'self determination' only applies to a country that has only really existed on paper for the last 300 years. If they keep pushing this, there are likely to be some very unpleasant surprises waiting for them along the road to independence.

[giblets]

Good point, you can **** up Scotland the way you ****ed up Ireland.