It's somewhat amusing to see Apple throw away market leadership now, just like it did in the 80s

[Kuciwalker]

If you predict the sun will go supernova tomorrow, and then aliens happen to show up and destroy the sun, you would not have been "right" in any useful sense.

[KrazyHorse]

Stocks go down all the time from being overvalued. All the time. AAPL will be no different.

Your blind faith in the EMH is actually pretty creepy. It's borderline religion.

What the **** do you not understand about this? STOCKS DECLINING IN VALUE IS NOT AN INDICTMENT OF THE EMH.

[Kuciwalker]

Stocks go down all the time from being overvalued. All the time. AAPL will be no different.

Your blind faith in the EMH is actually pretty creepy. It's borderline religion.

We have both cited actual empirical tests of the EMH, while you have cited nothing.

[KrazyHorse]

I was right then, too. It peaked at $200 and tanked shortly after I had said it was overvalued. I guess I got lucky.

Though now people will argue years later it's up well past $200 again so I guess I was wrong, even though it went way down.

Jesus Christ, I love watching confirmation bias at work.

[KrazyHorse]

The sad thing is that Asher's denial of the EMH is just about as sophisticated as that of anybody's

[Kuciwalker]

What markets and conditions does EMH fall apart in?

When search/transaction costs are high, it is much easier for prices to diverge from their 'correct' values.

[Asher]

What the **** do you not understand about this? STOCKS DECLINING IN VALUE IS NOT AN INDICTMENT OF THE EMH.

What don't you understand? I never said it was an indictment of the EMH. Just that stocks DO decline in value under the EMH. I just happen to think AAPL will do just that once their growth stalls.

I get that you and Kuci thinks it's categorically impossible to predict the market because THE MARKET KNOWS ALL, but I just did. Just like Wezil can't predict when people die, but he tries his damnedest.

[Asher]

The sad thing is that Asher's denial of the EMH is just about as sophisticated as that of anybody's

I don't DENY the EMH. I just think there's a far larger human component than you guys seem to. I think the human component is what leads us to the bubbles. I think AAPL is a bubble.

You and Kuci repeatedly assert anyone who doesn't swear to the strong hypothesis of EMH to the letter is denying it. That's the creepy part.

[Al B. Sure!]

What the hell? How did this thread get so long?

Well, I'd just like to point out that since Asher posted this thread on the 15th, AAPL has fallen 5.88%

Maybe we all should've listened to Asher and shorted AAPL

[Asher]

What the hell? How did this thread get so long?

Well, I'd just like to point out that since Asher posted this thread on the 15th, AAPL has fallen 5.88%

Maybe we all should've listened to Asher and shorted AAPL

It'll go back up.

Once Steve Jobs keels over (which honestly is probably within a year or two, as morbid as it sounds), that's when the crash will occur. AAPL basically has a built in expiration date...

[Kuciwalker]

Please explain. Why isn't it possible for the stock to reach a point where all of its owners are stupid fanboys?

Sorry, I didn't see this post way back at the beginning and Jaguar just pointed it out to me. The answer is that short sales exist.

[Aeson]

Does EMH even apply to situations where there is no definitive buy or sell date or predicted extent of the price movement? Just wondering, since Asher hasn't mentioned any of that other than the unknown Steve Jobs' expiration date and the undefined "rude awakening". (Which even if Apple's stock went up at that time would probably still accurately depict the effect on Apple fan boys unless Steve Jobs ascends to the heavens on a ray of light.)

[Lorizael]

Robert Picardo

[Wezil]

Once Steve Jobs keels over (which honestly is probably within a year or two, as morbid as it sounds), that's when the crash will occur. AAPL basically has a built in expiration date...

The Dead Pool says it will be sooner.

[Asher]

His cancer has a five-year survival rate of 50%, he's never looked healthy since and he's had a bunch of medical problems related to it as well. Now he took an abrupt leave for medical purposes, but still retains some degree of control (possibly because he knows he'll never be back at full health).

I wouldn't be completely surprised if he died within the year. I also wouldn't be completely surprised if the board knew about this and did not say anything, which is exactly what happened with his cancer diagnosis in the first place.

But I'm sure the millions of average investors have already considered all of this.