It's somewhat amusing to see Apple throw away market leadership now, just like it did in the 80s

[KrazyHorse]

More people decide not to buy AAPL stock than decide to buy it.

1) This is not true
2) Even if it was true, it would have almost nothing to do with anything. The people who are closest to the market (and who are paid for their supposed skill in beating it) have all manner of means of expressing a downside view

[Kuciwalker]

You put farrrrr too much faith in the collective wisdom of millions of idiots.

You are putting all of your faith in the wisdom of one idiot...

[Asher]

1) This is not true

Serious question -- how do you know?

Anecdotally, it's very much true for me.

[Asher]

You are putting all of your faith in the wisdom of one idiot...

I trust myself over an American referendum any day.

[KrazyHorse]

Here's the problem: Does the market get things wrong sometimes? Yes or no?

I am saying the market is getting this wrong.

It doesn't have anything to do with the EMH.

What you're saying is that your judgment on this is better than the aggregated judgment of millions of participants. That belief is in direct contradiction to the EMH. That has nothing to do with the fact (required by the EMH!) that some investments will underperform others.

Here is the strong version of the EMH (which is unlikely to be exactly true, but which as I said earlier justifies my mockery of you here):

Repeated trials of an individual's ability to provide returns superior to the broad market will yield a distribution which is indistinguishable from noise

[KrazyHorse]

Serious question -- how do you know?

Anecdotally, it's very much true for me.

No, it's probably not.

[Asher]

What you're saying is that your judgment on this is better than the aggregated judgment of millions of participants. That belief is in direct contradiction to the EMH. That has nothing to do with the fact (required by the EMH!) that some investments will underperform others.

Yes. It can happen.

I also do not buy Justin Bieber CDs, as I view my judgment as better than the judgment of millions of Bieber fans.

[KrazyHorse]

I trust myself over an American referendum any day.

It's almost as though you don't understand why democratic elections and the capital markets are completely different.

[MRT144]

What you're saying is that your judgment on this is better than the aggregated judgment of millions of participants. That belief is in direct contradiction to the EMH. That has nothing to do with the fact (required by the EMH!) that some investments will underperform others.

Here is the strong version of the EMH (which is unlikely to be exactly true, but which as I said earlier justifies my mockery of you here):

Repeated trials of an individual's ability to provide returns superior to the broad market will yield a distribution which is indistinguishable from noise

Nothing like mistaking alpha for insight.

[KrazyHorse]

Yes. It can happen

Ex post yes. Ex ante no.

Sorry, I'll take the word of hundreds of billions of dollars over your zero.

[-Jrabbit]

I am struck by similarity of this discussion to one from a couple years back, when AAPL was IIRC approaching $200/share. Well, except we don't have Agathon.

So really, it's Agathon's fault that this thread has degenerated into stock market blather.

[Asher]

Ex post yes. Ex ante no.

Sorry, I'll take the word of hundreds of billions of dollars over your zero.

Stocks go down all the time from being overvalued. All the time. AAPL will be no different.

Your blind faith in the EMH is actually pretty creepy. It's borderline religion.

[Asher]

I am struck by similarity of this discussion to one from a couple years back, when AAPL was IIRC approaching $200/share. Well, except we don't have Agathon.

So really, it's Agathon's fault that this thread has degenerated into stock market blather.

I was right then, too. It peaked at $200 and tanked shortly after I had said it was overvalued. I guess I got lucky.

Though now people will argue years later it's up well past $200 again so I guess I was wrong, even though it went way down.

[MRT144]

What markets and conditions does EMH fall apart in?

[Asher]

What markets and conditions does EMH fall apart in?

There are always a bunch of excuses every time it happens.

"The government meddled!!!"
"Speculators, damned speculators "