Christine O'Donnell Defeats Mike Castle

[giblets]

Anyway, any of you brave, brave, men willing to take an even up bet that the dims will win AK + DE, let's get to it.

Okay.

[MRT144]

Apparently you don't like poll numbers. There's a huge backlash against what the Democrats are trying to do. Most people aren't socialist losers like you Apolytoners.

Citation needed.

[DriXnaK]

Pick any poll number you want from any news organization you want and it will show Republicans leading as a whole on virtually every issue. Even the liberal media is at a loss as to how to skew the poll to make it look better for the Democrats. That's when you know it's really bad.

[MRT144]

Pick any poll number you want from any news organization you want and it will show Republicans leading as a whole on virtually every issue. Even the liberal media is at a loss as to how to skew the poll to make it look better for the Democrats. That's when you know it's really bad.

You fail.

[Elok]

Apparently you don't like poll numbers. There's a huge backlash against what the Democrats are trying to do. Most people aren't socialist losers like you Apolytoners.

You're still less interesting and witty than Mobius.

[DriXnaK]

Says the skill-less English major.

[Elok]

I didn't say anything about job skills, I said you're boring.

[Ben Kenobi]

Okay.

Great. Gribbler, if the Dims take AK and DE, you win. If the Republicans take AK and DE I win. Anything else is a push.

What terms do you want? Avatars for a month or so?

[Ben Kenobi]

Considering you were the idiot who said O'Connell winning would be good for the GOP and claiming she could win the seat, all Boris is asking is for you to put your money where your mouth is.

Intrade has it at 5:1 odds. I'll take 5:1 odds on Boris for that one bet, take it or leave it.

[Boris Godunov]

As a write-in Candidate? Unless she's the second coming of Jesse Helms, it ain't happening. She's done. Stick a fork in her. She's lost her bid for running as an independent simply by choosing to stay and fight for the republican nomination, unlike Crist who dropped out.

Yet again you're a dolt who can't comprehend a simple argument. I said nothing about her actually winning. You do know what it means to be a spoiler, right?

I go with likely voters. Rather than all adults or all registered voters which consistantly overstates support for the dims.

Rasmussen isn't the only poll that uses likely voters.

I schooled you on this issue before, but you never learn, which is why your political "predictions" have always been so abysmal. Relying on one pollster is stupid, relying on the average of all pollsters is much more accurate.

Again, the difference is that Reagan had a hostile congress. Obama's had pliant supermajorities. Huge, huge difference in the situations.

BZZZZT incorrect.

First of all, Obama does not have a "supermajority" in either chamber right now. Quit using words when you don't know what they mean.

Second of all, Reagan had a Senate majority for the first 6 years of his Presidency. You seem to not realize that Bob Dole was the Senate Majority Leader for most of the 1980s. What party was he in again? During the first two years, Reagan had the most compliant House of Representatives of his presidency, thanks to a large contingent of Southern Democrats who supported him. The 1981-1983 Congress was by no means hostile to him--it was, in fact, the friendliest Congress he ever had, and it was during the first two years of his Presidency that most of the legislation of his Presidency got passed. After 1982, it was pretty much gridlock. During this time his approval did exactly what Obama's has done, sunk to the mid-40s.

Similarly, Clinton also had his friendliest Congress his first two years in office, which is also when his approval was at its lowest. So if there is any correlation between Congressional control and presidential popularity in recent history, it is that it is most common for a president's popularity to decline if his party also controls congress.

Once again, you're completely ignorant of the actual facts and just make up whatever **** you feel like.

Yes, Reagan was unpopular, but he brought it back up once the economy recovered. Obama's got nothing like that looking forward for him.

The thing is, your powers of prediction are so obviously awful, why should anyone take this seriously? You've got no clue how the economy even works, much less have any idea what it will be like in two years. Even economic experts admit they don't know that. You, definitely NOT an expert, are just bloviating.

Hardly. Wilson was far more unpopular. As was Nixon.

There weren't approval polls like there are today for Wilson, so that's a claim you can't prove. But if you're going to put Bush in the company of Nixon, be my guest.

Eh, history will show that Bush was unfairly maligned. Lincoln was extremely unpopular and yet history has gone on to show that he was one of the better presidents.

Well Lincoln was certainly unpopular in the South, yes. But in the North, he won re-election with 55% of the vote. Hardly unpopular, now is it? More to the point, Lincoln certainly was very popular following his death. He never had to have his reputation "rescued" like you think will happen to Bush, he was immediately an American legend.

Keep making **** up, Ben... we know it's what you love to do!

Then wake up and stop drinking the koolaid.

That's pretty funny from someone who is a Palinophile.

What "kool-aid" am I drinking when I fully acknowledge that Obama's approval ratings are at a low point and if the election were this year, he'd likely lose? That's not very kool-aid drinking to me.

Contrast this with you, who thought Bush would win in landslide in 2004 and McCain in a landslide in 2008. Who's been drinking what again?

Again, not the point. The point is that no matter how much she raises, Reid will have access to more. But then, Senate Majority lead is irrelevant to an additional incumbancy advantage.

Because Reid, as Senate Majority leader has substantially more influence.

33% approval rating, Ben. You can't get around that, no matter how much you weasel. Angle is such a bad candidate, she's deadlocked in the polls with a guy with a 33% approval rating. She shouldn't even need money to be far ahead of him. Do you think those ~20% of voters who disapprove of Reid but won't vote for Angle are swayed by his incumbency? Really? That's ****ing stupid. The problem is that Angle is a ****ty candidate, and a lot of people will hold their nose and vote for Reid over the lunatic.

And you'll have to explain to me how for you it's perfectly logical that a "good" candidate like Angle is deadlocked in the polls with an incumbent who has 33% approval rating, but feel certain an incumbent President with a significantly higher approval rating is doomed. You are incapable of making a logically consistent argument.

I certainly am not scared to bet on Delaware at all.

Yes you obviously are, because you devised this absurd DE/AK "Push" thing as your safeguard against losing outright. As I've said, many times, I've never claimed McAdams would win AK, so why would I bet on it?

The fact that I bet when I believe the odds are in my favor is smart. I mean, duh. Unlike you, I don't think my willingness to make bets on something is in anyway a reflection on my political acumen. My ability to make bets that I consistently win is what does that.

So will it be Delaware Senate, straight up, or are you surrendering? Man up or shut up.

[Boris Godunov]

I'm the coward and yet I bet that McCain would win 2/3rds of the college and 2/3rds of the states? Right.

That wasn't bravery, that was just outright stupidity, and we all know you're brimming with that.

I'm not claiming to be brave, just smart about betting. But that doesn't mean you're not a coward for your weaseling on the bet. You only want AK in it to save you from certain defeat.

So again: Delaware Senate, man up or shut up. What will it be... are you chicken?

[Al B. Sure!]

Who is this Drixnak?

And why is this even a thread with 4 pages? Do yall really care that much about a Delaware Senate race? Delaware?

[Boris Godunov]

The Senate race isn't really relevant anymore, it's just another chance to beat BK into the dirt for his retardedness.

[DriXnaK]

I don't think it gets much more boring than an English major. Talk about wasting your life.

[Imran Siddiqui]

And why is this even a thread with 4 pages? Do yall really care that much about a Delaware Senate race? Delaware?

Well it does broader implications, especially with the future of the GOP.