Christine O'Donnell Defeats Mike Castle

[Ben Kenobi]

Congratulations on losing a guy who'd vote with the party 87% of the time to one who will vote with them, what, 10%? If that?

Cap and trade, and Obamacare. Only the two biggest bills of the year, and he sided with the democrats.

[Ben Kenobi]

And choosing between Coons and O'Donnell is like choosing between orange juice and hemlock

Sure, and that's the point. Why would someone vote for Castle over Coons?

[Ben Kenobi]

You are a moron, and your political acumen is that of a diseased snail.

Seeing as you've declined my challenge, I take that to mean that you respect my opinion sufficiently not to call me out.

Oh you rascally liar you. Obama is at ~45 approval and ~45% disapproval right now

Which is low for less than 2 years into a presidency, Boris. Ras has him at about 41 percent approval.

That's hardly "extremely unpopular" when you consider Bush's approval was ~30% in November 2006 when the Republicans lost control of Congress.

6 years after he was elected.

Several polls have shown Angle trailing as well. At any rate, yes, up only 2 points and under 50% against a relatively unpopular incumbent in an anti-incumbent year is definitely struggling. She should be up 10 points over him.

Over the incumbant Senate Majority leader?

I didn't say he wouldn't win, nimrod--just that it will be harder than it would have been for Murkowski.

So, he wins, you don't get extra points for running up the score. This isn't the BCS. Enough said.

Take the Rasmussen polling (a Republican-leaning pollster anyway): Murkowski was up 32 points over McAdams, but Miller was up only 6 when they polled after the primary.

Republican leaning = polls likely voters. His models are consistantly more accurate. She was up by a similar amount over Joe Miller and how did that work out eh?

Murkowski is also still toying with the idea of running as a 3rd party candidate in the general. If she's on the ballot, Miller's chances of winning will plummet severely.

As a write-in candidate? Seriously? You really believe that she'd have an impact? She lost, she's done. Miller should win the general without too much difficulty.

If you don't think that quotes of that kind from the NRSC against O'Donnell and the fact that they won't give her any financial support won't make a difference in the election, then you're delusional.

The same NRSC that *****ed and moaned about underfunding? She didn't have any funding here, they funded her opponent who was also quite wealthy, and O'Donnell still won by 6. They don't have the power to do much anymore.

and how did Scott Brown turn out for the teabagger set, hmm? They wanted to hang him in effigy for voting with the Democrats!

The point is he won. So can O'Donnell in an equally blue state. The seat is open, she isn't facing an incumbent.

[Ben Kenobi]

Dino, thanks for making that point for me. I expected Boris to challenge the point and then bring up Cap and Trade.

[Boris Godunov]

Cap and trade, and Obamacare. Only the two biggest bills of the year, and he sided with the democrats.

Castle didn't vote for the Healthcare bill, you unbelievable ******.

[Ben Kenobi]

Castle didn't vote for the Healthcare bill, you unbelievable ******.

He did vote for Cap and trade which is totally unacceptable. Looking forward to seeing O'Donnell win.

How does it feel to agree with Rove?

[Boris Godunov]

Seeing as you've declined my challenge, I take that to mean that you respect my opinion sufficiently not to call me out.

No, I don't respect you opinion, you're just too ****ing stupid to understand the point being made.

I've beaten you on every single political bet we've made. You were the one who was so idiotic you thought McCain would carry 40 states in a landslide.

Which is low for less than 2 years into a presidency, Boris. Ras has him at about 41 percent approval.

How so? Care to guess how many other presidents had such "low" approval ratings at this point in their Presidency and still went on to win re-election? Reagan and Clinton are two names that immediately come to mind. You can't weasel out of this: your claim of Obama being "extremely unpopular" is garbage. He's hit 50% in Gallup just a week or so ago. That's not nearly "extremely unpopular."

6 years after he was elected.

So? Are you saying that means a president will necessarily be unpopular by then? Care to compare the year 6 numbers to Clinton? Bush was genuinely "extremely unpopular. "

Over the incumbant Senate Majority leader?

Over any senator who is unpopular in his own state, you idiot. His being majority leader is irrelevant. Remember Tom Daschle? Majority leader status means squat in this context. A competent Republican would be beating Reid by 10 points now. Look at how badly his son is doing in the Governor's race.

So, he wins, you don't get extra points for running up the score. This isn't the BCS. Enough said.

Being up 6 points isn't the final number, moron. The plain fact that anyone can see is that Murkowski had much, much more of a chance of beating McAdams than Miller does, especially if Murkowski runs as 3rd party.

Republican leaning = polls likely voters. His models are consistantly more accurate. She was up by a similar amount over Joe Miller and how did that work out eh?

Party primaries != general elections. You simply cannot correlate the results of partisan primaries and the November contests. Nominating extremists leads to alienating the electorate.

As a write-in candidate? Seriously? You really believe that she'd have an impact? She lost, she's done. Miller should win the general without too much difficulty.

Murkowski has been in talks to run on the Libertarian Party ticket. Discounting her popularity and name recognition is foolish of you, but I'd expect nothing less. Her approval rating statewide was positive, it was only the crazy Republicans who didn't like her. The bitter primary also substantially alienated her voters from Miller, and there has been no "coming together" attempt whatsoever.

The same NRSC that *****ed and moaned about underfunding? She didn't have any funding here, they funded her opponent who was also quite wealthy, and O'Donnell still won by 6. They don't have the power to do much anymore.

Again, you're bat**** delusional if you don't think the NRSC sitting this election out won't have an effect. The DNSC will be putting millions of dollars into this race and she will not be able to match it.

The point is he won. So can O'Donnell in an equally blue state. The seat is open, she isn't facing an incumbent.

Scott Brown won because he ran as a moderate in the General Election, and Coakley ran a terrible "campaign." Brown had the party's backing all along and showed in both the election and in his Senate voting he is not a genuine teabagger--he even snubbed their big rally with Palin in Boston.

O'Donnell will NOT run as a moderate in the General--she is an ideological candidate, and she's not going to tack to center. She will go down just like Alan Keyes did.

I know Delaware--I grew up on the Delmarva peninsula. O'Donnell is not going to win, not by a longshot. I notice you didn't offer me a bet on that outcome, chicken****!

[Boris Godunov]

He did vote for Cap and trade which is totally unacceptable. Looking forward to seeing O'Donnell win.

Delawarians don't care about Cap and Trade votes. Only ideological nitwit Republicans do. O'Donnell will go down hard. Sacrificing a Senate seat--and therefore any chance at controlling the Senate--over a Cap and Trade vote is the height of political stupidity. No surprise you approve!

How does it feel to agree with Rove?

Who cares what Rove thinks either way? If he thinks O'Donnell can't win, then he's right and is at least being smarter than when he claimed to have "THE math" in 2006. Rove is certainly smarter than *you.*

[Ben Kenobi]

I've beaten you on every single political bet we've made. You were the one who was so idiotic you thought McCain would carry 40 states in a landslide.

The point being that Miller will likely win AK. You haven't contested the statement, ergo I can't be completely out to lunch. Yes, I did take that bet, I try to stake a postion to the right of Attilla the hun.

How so? Care to guess how many other presidents had such "low" approval ratings at this point in their Presidency and still went on to win re-election? Reagan and Clinton are two names that immediately come to mind.

There are others as well. Wilson and Truman are the others I believe. None, besides Reagan were considered peculiarly strong. Perhaps Obama is the next Reagan, but Reagan had a hostile congress. Obama's had supermajorities. The situations are very different.

You can't weasel out of this: your claim of Obama being "extremely unpopular" is garbage. He's hit 50% in Gallup just a week or so ago.

I find it hilarious that 50 percent approval is considered evidence that he is popular. How the mighty have fallen.

So? Are you saying that means a president will necessarily be unpopular by then? Care to compare the year 6 numbers to Clinton? Bush was genuinely "extremely unpopular. "

Clinton over the course of his presidency was one of the least popular presidents. Bush was not. Bush never dipped below 50 until well into his second term.

Over any senator who is unpopular in his own state, you idiot. His being majority leader is irrelevant.

Really.

Remember Tom Daschle? Majority leader status means squat in this context. A competent Republican would be beating Reid by 10 points now. Look at how badly his son is doing in the Governor's race.

Incumbancy is a powerful force. You can't seriously argue that because his son is doing worse than he that Angle is a weak candidate.

Murkowski had much, much more of a chance of beating McAdams than Miller does, especially if Murkowski runs as 3rd party.

Except that she can't run as 3rd party. But then I'm just ignorant. She's done. As for Murkowski, that was then, this is now.

Party primaries != general elections. You simply cannot correlate the results of partisan primaries and the November contests. Nominating extremists leads to alienating the electorate.

Give the populatiry of Palin in AK, I'd say that Miller fits right in with the electorate. AK is not DE.

Again, you're bat**** delusional if you don't think the NRSC sitting this election out won't have an effect. The DNSC will be putting millions of dollars into this race and she will not be able to match it.

The NRSC sued the tea party to keep her from getting funds. Elephants have long memories. The difference bdetween the evil party and the stupid party is that you never see the evil party with these issues.

Scott Brown won because he ran as a moderate in the General Election, and Coakley ran a terrible "campaign." Brown had the party's backing all along and showed in both the election and in his Senate voting he is not a genuine teabagger--he even snubbed their big rally with Palin in Boston.

I see nothing to indicate that the DE Dem is in the range of excellent campaigners. O'Donnell has proven that she is an excellent campaigner. She won by a much larger margin than Miller.

O'Donnell will NOT run as a moderate in the General--she is an ideological candidate, and she's not going to tack to center. She will go down just like Alan Keyes did.

Maybe so, but that chapter has not yet been written.

I know Delaware--I grew up on the Delmarva peninsula. O'Donnell is not going to win, not by a longshot. I notice you didn't offer me a bet on that outcome, chicken****!

Well given as you've declined the bet I did make, I see no point. DE + AK to the GOP in November? You willing to take that one on? If both go Dem, then you win, both to GOP, I win, else it's a push. Deal?

[Thoth]

She's really nice, and 10 years ago I'd hit it

okay, I'd still hit it but I'd need viagra

Yuck. I'd have to be pretty drunk before I'd hit that.

[giblets]

No, I don't respect you opinion, you're just too ****ing stupid to understand the point being made.

I've beaten you on every single political bet we've made. You were the one who was so idiotic you thought McCain would carry 40 states in a landslide.

Wow.

[DinoDoc]

Blah blah whatever dude. See Nate Silver's post. His model says her win halves their chances of taking back the Senate.

Whoa, you mean with went from probably wasn't going to happen to probably isn't going to happen? Horror!

[dannubis]

For the love of everything you hold dear, STOP QUOTING BEN!

[ZEE]

.

[Kuciwalker]

Whoa, you mean with went from probably wasn't going to happen to probably isn't going to happen? Horror!

30% -> 15% sucks hard, dude.