UK Election Poll

[Krill]

Prisoners Dilemma.

[notyoueither]

We're well into head 'splodin territory according to the Beeb.

[notyoueither]

Strange thing mentioned on the CBC. Any CW citizen can vote if they live in the UK?

[Krill]

I think the Cons have it as a minority, with about 315 seats.

[flipside]

Overall picture is really still not clear.
It is frankly, a bit of a mess.
It will be a Conservative "win" in a hung parliament.
However, Lab+Lib votes are unlikely to reach the 326 seats combined to force a minority government.
And the Conservatives will be unable to reach 326 with just the N.Irish vote in parties like the DUP/UUP to form a minority government.

Which really does open things up.

It is going to come down to a handful of seats and the deals post election. Con with Lib/SNP/Plaid Cymru deals are very difficult ideologically so it may come down to the 1 or 2 Indies or the N.Irish vote if they get close.

[Krill]

Worst possible outcome for LD I think.

[flipside]

Very difficult to say that atm.

If Lab+Lib is 326 seats+, then it may be good for them as they can use that as leverage for pr voting and have a large say in governance.
If Con+DUP is 326+ than it is bad for them as they have no say moving forward.

If it's inbetween, which it probably will be, it gets very interesting as any Lib/Con deal is extremely difficult.

[flipside]

Just seen latest predictions.

Conservatives 306.
DUP will be 8 or so.

That's quite a bit short.

Lab+Lib is 315 or so as well.

Which could mean some kind of ****ed up Lab/Lib/ SNP/ N.Irish SDLP/Alliance government.

It is kinda fecked up

[Krill]

Taking bets on how long it lasts?

[flipside]

Nah, it's screwed.

The main thing that I'm concerned with it being this close and trading based will be a possible downwriting of British credit rating.

I'd have rathered 330 either way than what might happen. Insecurity and uncertainty are the killers on the market here with what might happen.

You could end up with 2 blocks on 322 or so each with guys like Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru having deciding votes, who will vote based on regional incentives.

[notyoueither]

Ohh, a Green. There goes the neighbourhood.

[notyoueither]

With about 20% of the seats to go, and the Tories in a comfortable majority, why is there still a lot of talk about hung parliament?

It's 263 Tory to 241 Lab/LD ATM.

By this time we'd have a Tory majority declared. Are there strange ridings to come?

[notyoueither]

Oh, I see. There are 27 others. Thoise are on BBC World, but not on the bbc.co.uk page I have been on.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

The BNP got absolutely stuffed in Barking. Funny.

[notyoueither]

Who are the DUP?