Is the organic food movement the most anti-science social movement out there?

[Japher]

observational data - FACT!

I can believe it, even Walmart only carries organic crap

[Ecofarm]

From 2002:

The U.S. organic food industry crossed a threshold in 2000: for the first time, more organic food was purchased in conventional supermarkets than in any other venue.

Growth in retail sales has equaled 20 percent or more annually since 1990.

Organic products are now available in nearly 20,000 natural foods stores, and are sold in 73 percent of all conventional grocery stores.

According to the most recent USDA estimates, U.S. certified organic cropland doubled between 1992 and 1997, to 1.3 million acres.

The new U.S. Department of Agriculture standards for organic food, slated to be fully implemented by October 2002, are expected to facilitate further growth in the organic foods industry.

Fresh produce is the top-selling organic category, followed by nondairy beverages, breads and grains, packaged foods (frozen and dried prepared foods, baby food, soups, and desserts), and dairy products. During the 1990s, organic dairy was the most rapidly growing segment, with sales up over 500 percent between 1994 and 1999.

Nine USDA agencies have expanded research, regulatory, and other programs on organic agriculture.

The main regulatory program is the creation, implementation, and administration of the USDA organic standard. Other programs include crop insurance for organic farmers, information provision, and promotion of organic exports.

USDA also funds projects for international market development and for natural resource conservation. Funding is also extended to projects assisting adoption of organic practices and exploration of new farming systems, methods, and educational opportunities.

USDA research includes agronomic studies on soil management, biological control of pests and weeds, livestock issues, and post-harvest fruit treatment. Economic research focuses on tracking growth in the organic sector, demand for organic products, and organic farmers’ risk management strategies.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aib777/aib777.pdf

The recession took a bite out of it, but until then we see similar expansion throughout the 2000s.

[giblets]

Ahh, okay, you're just bad at math and reading.

[Ecofarm]

Notice the word "like". And notice the 500% market expansion of organic milk from '94-'97.

The overal global market did ~10-20% per year in the 2000s, though I've seen higher numbers for specific segments.

U.S. sales of organic food and beverages have grown from $1 billion in 1990 to an estimated $20 billion in 2007, and are projected to reach nearly $23 billion in 2008. Organic food sales are anticipated to increase an average of 18 percent each year from 2007 to 2010.
Source: 2007 OTA Manufacturer Survey


Representing approximately 2.8 percent of overall food and beverage sales in 2006, this continues to be a fast growing sector, growing 20.9 percent in 2006.
Source: 2007 OTA Manufacturer Survey


Organic non-food sales grew 26 percent in 2006.
Source: 2007 OTA Manufacturer Survey


Total U.S. organic sales, including food and non-food products, were $17.7 billion in 2006, up 21 percent from 2005. They are estimated to have reached $21.2 billion in 2007, and are projected to surpass $25 billion in 2008.
Source: 2007 OTA Manufacturer Survey


Mass market grocery stores represent the largest single distribution channel, accounting for 38 percent of organic food sales in 2006. This is up from a 35 percent share of total sales in 2005. The natural food channel is still strong. The sales of larger grocery natural food stores combined with smaller independent natural food stores and chains accounts for 44 percent of organic food and beverage sales. Mass merchandisers and club stores, food service, internet/mail order and farmers’ markets represent 8 percent, 4 percent, 2.2 percent, and 2 percent of organic food sales, respectively.
Source: 2007 OTA Manufacturer Survey


Nearly 30.4 million hectares were managed organically by more than 700,000 farms in 138 countries in 2006, according to The World of Organic Agriculture: Statistics & Emerging Trends 2008 report released in February 2008 by the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM), The Foundation Ecology & Agriculture (SÖL), and the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL). That figure represents 0.65 percent of the total agricultural land of the countries covered by the survey. As in previous years, Australia led with the most organic land (12.3 million hectares), followed by China (2.3 million hectares) and Argentina (2.2 million hectares). The United States was fourth, with 1.6 million hectares in 2005 (latest available statistics). The ten countries with the most organic land represented a combined total of nearly 24 million hectares, more than three quarters of the world’s organic land. Other countries in the top ten were Italy, Uruguay, Spain, Brazil, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Based on distribution by continent, Oceania led with 42 percent of organic area, followed by Europe (24 percent), Latin America (16 percent), Asia (20 percent), North America (7 percent), and Africa (1 percent). However, according to the report summary, the proportion of organically managed land to conventionally managed is highest in countries in Europe.
Source: The World of Organic Agriculture: Statistics & Emerging Trends 2008


Global demand for organic products continues to grow, with sales increasing by over $5 billion a year, according to The World of Organic Agriculture: Statistics & Emerging Trends 2008. It cited Organic Monitor estimates that international sales reached $38.6 billion dollars in 2006, double that in 2000. The most important import markets for organic products continue to be the European Union, the United States, and Japan.
Source: The World of Organic Agriculture: Statistics & Emerging Trends 2008


New research from The Natural Marketing Institute (NMI) released in 2008 reveals that consumers are increasingly incorporating organic into their lifestyles. Total household penetration across six product categories has risen from 57 percent in 2006 to 59 percent in 2007. The research also showed that the number of core users has increased from 16 percent in 2006 to 18 percent in 2007
Source: http://www.nmisolutions.com/


According to the National Restaurant Association’s 2007 Restaurant Industry Forecast, chefs ranked organic food as third on a list of the top 20 items for 2007. Also, more than half of fine-dining operators who serve organic food anticipated these items would represent a larger portion of sales in 2007. In addition, casual- and family-dining operators expected organic items to represent a larger proportion of their sales in 2007.
Source: National Restaurant Association’s 2007 Restaurant Industry Forecast

http://www.ota.com/organic/mt/business.html

Look at the bold. Using 1990 as a baseline ($1b) to 2007, it increases 1 billion per year - or 100% of the base.

[giblets]

Notice the word "like". And notice the 100% market expansion of organic milk from '94-'97.

500% increase in five years (it says 94 to 99) is ~43% a year, silly.

U.S. sales of organic food and beverages have grown from $1 billion in 1990 to an estimated $20 billion in 2007

a little over 19% a year. though if you take inflation into account, it's more like 16% a year

[Fake Boris]

Nice that Drake finally made some points about the imprecise nature of a term several days after everyone posting in the latest agriculture threads made them in anticipation.

[Ecofarm]

Fine, I'm "bad" at math (actually, I'm good at it but it bores me). I was not trying to be precise. I use excel for my calculations.


But you can see the trend. It's huge.


From 1 billion in 1990 to 20 billion in 2007. What percent increase is that per year?

[Fake Boris]

It's called FOOTBALL but you can THROW IT.

[giblets]

[q=Ecofarm]From 1 billion in 1990 to 20 billion in 2007. What percent increase is that per year? [/q]

a little over 19% a year. though if you take inflation into account, it's more like 16% a year

[Ecofarm]

Ok, so I was using a bit of artistic-license with the exact numbers; however, we can accept that the trend is truly impressive.

Let's also note this:

criticism from scientists that organic farming is environmentally unsound and incapable of feeding the world population.[9] Among these critics are Norman Borlaug, father of the "green revolution," and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, who asserts that organic farming practices can at most feed 4 billion people, after expanding cropland dramatically and destroying ecosystems in the process.[10] Michael Pollan, author of The Omnivore's Dilemma, responds to this by pointing out that the average yield of world agriculture is substantially lower than modern sustainable farming yields. Bringing average world yields up to modern organic levels could increase the worlds food supply by 50 % [16].

A 2007 study [17] compiling research from 293 different comparisons into a single study to assess the overall efficiency of the two agricultural systems has concluded that

...organic methods could produce enough food on a global per capita basis to sustain the current human population, and potentially an even larger population, without increasing the agricultural land base. (from the abstract)

The researchers also found that while in developed countries, organic systems on average produce 92% of the yield produced by conventional agriculture, organic systems produce 80% more than conventional farms in developing countries, because the materials needed for organic farming are more accessible than synthetic farming materials to farmers in some poor countries. On the other hand, communities that lack sufficient manure to replenish soils would struggle with organic farming, and the soil would degrade rapidly

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organic_food#Environmental_impact

And here's wiki on the economics:

World organic food sales jumped from US $23 billion in 2002[67] to $52 billion in 2008.[68]
The world organic market has been growing by 20% a year since the early 1990s, with future growth estimates ranging from 10%–50% annually depending on the country.

Of course one can ignore all of that and go with a single quote from arguably the most biased source, uttered decades ago... if one is an idiot.

[giblets]

I guess you're right about promoting organic farming in developing countries. (but not always, I wouldn't be surprised if there are cases where a conventional method is better)

[Ecofarm]

Why not here? We're fat and don't really sell any food to developing countries anyway (China notwithstanding).


Actually, our (illegal, via WTO) subsidies to conventional agriculture to the tune of a $6 billion US farm bill hurts those countries alot. Hell, just the fact that we have a huge and illegal farm bill (which is destroying the markets in the developing world) should tell you that our agriculture is unsustainable.


Why should we have unsustainable agriculture? We have used 50% of our biggest aquifer in the mid-west. We have destroyed 90% of our wetlands. And we subsidize this unsustainable destruction to the tune of billions of tax-payer dollars. Much (perhaps most) of our oil goes to agriculture - it's making us dependant on the middle east for food. Eating meat causes more CO2 than driving an SUV, largely because of the methods.


It's time to stop the madness.

[giblets]

Why not here? We're fat and don't really sell any food to developing countries anyway (China notwithstanding).

I don't see what's so great about organic food, in terms of health effects.

Actually, our (illegal, via WTO) subsidies to conventional agriculture to the tune of a $6 billion US farm bill hurts those countries alot.

Hell, just the fact that we have a huge and illegal farm bill (which is destroying the markets in the developing world) should tell you that our agriculture is unsustainable.

I'd like to get rid of agricultural subsidies. However IMO they're a sign of the power of lobbying, not a sign that the system is unsustainable.

We have used 50% of our biggest aquifer in the mid-west. We have destroyed 90% of our wetlands.

Organic farms wouldn't use aquifers or destroy wetlands?

[Ecofarm]

I don't see what's so great about organic food, in terms of health effects.

Granted, most of the health benefits are to ecology, thus indirectly to us. As far as personal health goes, there is little (but measurable) difference between organic and conventional plants; however, when it comes to animal products there are more considerable personal health benefits. For example, organic eggs have 70% less cholesterol than conventional eggs. Not to mention trace antibiotics hormones.

Perhaps even more important, however, is the resource conservation (especially water and biodiversity) and movement away from oil-based food production.

I'd like to get rid of agricultural subsidies. However IMO they're a sign of the power of lobbying, not a sign that the system is unsustainable.

I think subsidies are a sign of unsustainable practices. We should let the market decide.

[giblets]

For example, organic eggs have 70% less cholesterol than conventional eggs.

the bad kind?

Not to mention trace antibiotics hormones.

Why are trace antibiotics and hormones a problem?

Perhaps even more important, however, is the resource conservation (especially water and biodiversity) and movement away from oil-based food production.

let the market decide if we should use oil :P

not sure how organic farming needs less water