Kennedy's seat to turn Republican

[DanS]

I've been following this race casually for a little while. Who would have thought that Obama's signature health care legislation would hang by the now-tenuous thread of the Dems keeping Senator Kennedy's seat? This only one year after the Dems surfed a large wave into office.

Coakley must be a really lame candidate. And it demonstrates that you can make up any deficit in no time in a political campaign.

[Drake Tungsten]

Way to jinx it...

[DanS]

I never thought that Brown would win it. Still very skeptical. I'm just amazed that it is even a close race.

[DinoDoc]

I thought it stopped being his seat when he dropped dead.

[Kuciwalker]

re: Kennedy's seat to turn Republican

You ****er SHUT THE **** UP until it happens you have to assume it won't happen OR IT WON'T.

[DanS]

No, zombie Senator Kennedy is now casting votes.

[Drake Tungsten]

I never thought that Brown would win it. Still very skeptical. I'm just amazed that it is even a close race.

I remain convinced that Coakley will win and will continue to be until proven otherwise.

[Kuciwalker]

Good man.

[DanS]

Damn, y'all are as superstitious as a pack of grandmas. If it's any consolation to you, the Dems can pass this without 60, if necessary. It will just be more fun for the spectators.

[DinoDoc]

Oh I think if this is even close, it knocks a few of the wobbly Senators and Reps up for reelection for a loop given the fact he seems to be running an anti-Obamacare campaign.

[Drake Tungsten]

If it's any consolation to you, the Dems can pass this without 60, if necessary.

Not easily. The House would have to pass the Senate bill unchanged (including the tax on Cadillac plans that they already had to alter to get union support) to avoid another cloture vote in the Senate.

The more realistic way to pass healthcare reform if Brown wins is, in my opinion, the Dems allowing Kirk to continue to vote for Massachusetts until Brown is certified, in spite of past Senate precedent.

Brown isn't going to win, however, so all of this is just pointless speculation.

[DaShi]

He's going to win.

[Drake Tungsten]

DaShi is wrong, as usual. There's no way a Republican is going to win Ted Kennedy's seat.

[DanS]

As I understand it, the bill could be considered as a budget reconciliation bill and therefore the House would not be required to pass the Senate bill unchanged.

[Drake Tungsten]

As I understand it, the bill could be considered as a reconciliation bill and therefore changes could be made without requiring the House to pass the Senate bill unchanged.

No; only certain portions of the bill can be passed via reconciliation. If the House doesn't pass the Senate bill unchanged and they decide to use reconciliation, the Dems will have to go back to the drawing board to figure out which parts of healthcare reform can be passed via reconciliation and which will still have to be subject to cloture. It would complicate matters significantly and would increase the risk of moderate Dems jumping ship, which is why I personally don't feel reconciliation is a serious option.