Anarchy in the Iran

[Sirotnikov]

http://news.gooya.com/columnists/archives/089473.php

Some reformist Iranians want more western involvement

[Riesstiu IV]

Yeah, maybe Iranians living in the US but I'm sure the vast majority don't. BTW that German lady looks like a huge bltch.

[Sirotnikov]

Do you have any information regarding the affiliation and place of living of gooya.com contributors, or are you repeating a gut feeling?

A source I don't know the validity of, claims that there have been lots of arguments in Iranian parliament about this:

From huffington post, quoting a supposed translation from this site: http://www.etemaad.ir/Released/88-03-28/150.htm

Yesterday a couple of the members of the Iranian parliament started asking question regarding the plainclothes security forces who have been beating the protesters in Iran.


Apparently, Abutorabi (Parliament secretary) questioned the connections of the plainclothes security forces who had earlier storm Tehran University's dorms and killed and injured students. Abutorabi claims that those individuals have been identified and says: "Why do plainclothes individuals without permission from the government get to storm the dorms?"

Then Ansari, a member of the parliament took the floor and talked about the "fact finding" committee and the fact that everyone in that comity is an Ahmadinejad supporter and therefore questioned the legitimacy of the committee.

After Ansari, Abutorabi took the floor again and continued questioning the plainclothes security forces once again. At this point Hosseinian, Koochakzadeh, and resaee, the three biggest supporters of Ahmadinejad in the parliament, started a verbal argument which ended with a number of physical fights. As a result a number of pro and anti Ahmadinejad members of the parliament join the fight and start slapping and pushing each other.

In the end, the anti Ahmadinejad block claims that they will expose the identities of those behind the plainclothes security forces.

Keep in mind that the pro and anti Ahmadinejad blocks belong to the same political party! I think the government is starting to crack up from the inside.

[Darius871]

Hopefully the CIA would have the technology to rerout or conceal their calls.
Though I wouldn't put anything beyond idiocy.

I'd assumed the Crawford (Bush's ranch) thing was a joke at HalfLotus' expense...

[Sirotnikov]

I'd assumed the Crawford (Bush's ranch) thing was a joke at HalfLotus' expense...

bah

[Zevico]

A journalist reports that she heard 'Death to Khameini" during a protest near her house. A few of these protests may be directed at the regime itself.

See:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1245184872959&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

[Zevico]

I think that cartoon overstates the influence the US, et al may directly exert in Iran.

Condemnations won't do much to pressure an international pariah state to change its policies.

Condemnations might do any of the following three:
(1) Provide moral comfort to anti-Ahmadenijad Iranians (and Westerners, as a result);
(2) Convince less knowledgeable Iranians that the protests are a Western plot;
(3) Both.

Refusing to condemn the violence or rigging might do any of the following:
(4) Undermine confidence in the West;
(5) Keep the West 'uninvolved', and maintain its reputation among the less knowledgeable Iranians as a result [see (2) above];
(6) Both.

These are really just a few of the variables involved in this decision. There is no telling which is the 'better' decision, I think, in that the outcome of either decision cannot be measured precisely at this point in time. Personally I would prefer vocal opposition to human rights violations. As to the elections themselves, I would prefer that the Americans made it clear that they are, in the scheme of things, not so important whilst the Iranians still have a Supreme Leader who exerts actual control over their people and country.

[Theben]

Khamenei put his foot down:

Iran's top leader warns of protest crackdown

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran's supreme leader sternly warned Friday of a crackdown if protesters continue their massive street rallies, escalating the government's showdown with demonstrators demanding a new presidential election.

In his first response to a week of protests of the disputed election, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said opposition leaders "will be held accountable for all the violence, bloodshed and rioting" if they do not halt the rallies.

Khamenei also said the balloting had not been rigged, and he sided with hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, offering no concessions to the opposition. He effectively ruled out any chance for a new vote, lauding the June 12 election as an expression of the people's will.

"Some of our enemies in different parts of the world intended to depict this absolute victory, this definitive victory, as a doubtful victory," Khamenei said at a Friday prayer service at Tehran University attended by tens of thousands of people. "It is your victory. They cannot manipulate it."

The speech created a stark choice for candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and his supporters: Drop their demands for a new vote or take to the streets again in blatant defiance of the man endowed with virtually limitless powers under Iran's constitution.

Pro-Mousavi Web sites had no immediate reaction to Khamenei's warning. They did not announce changes in plans for a march at 4 p.m. Saturday from Revolution Square to Freedom Square, site of a massive rally Monday that ended with fatal clashes between protesters and a pro-government militia.

"We are all feel a little angry, worried and disappointed after the speech," said one Mousavi supporter, responding by e-mail to The Associated Press.

"We are waiting for Mousavi's reaction. He is our hope to protect our votes," added the Tehran resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of government retaliation.

Monday's demonstration was followed by three consecutive days of protest that have posed the greatest challenge to Iran's Islamic ruling system since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought it to power.

So far, the government has not stopped the protests with force despite an official ban on them. But Khamenei opened the door for harsher measures.

"It must be determined at the ballot box what the people want and what they don't want, not in the streets," he said. "I call on all to put an end to this method."

And Khamenei added, according to Press TV, Iranian state television's English-language channel: "Extremism in the country, any extremist move, will fan another extremist move. If the political elite want to ignore the law or break the law then they are taking wrong measures, which are harmful, and they will be held accountable for all the violence, bloodshed and rioting."

He accused foreign media and Western countries of trying to create a political rift and stir up chaos in Iran. Iranian leaders often blame foreign "enemies" for plots against the country, but Khamenei's comments suggest Iran could remain cool to expanding dialogue with the West and the offer of opening talks with Washington.

The House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly Friday to condemn Tehran's crackdown on demonstrators and the government's interference with Internet and cell phone communications.

The resolution was the strongest message yet to Iran from the U.S. government and was initiated by Republicans as a veiled criticism of President Barack Obama, who has taken a cautious line on the election dispute, expressing sympathy with protesters but avoiding condemnation of the Islamic government.

He said Tuesday that opposition to Ahmadinejad represented "a questioning of the kinds of antagonistic postures towards the international community that have taken place in the past, and that there are people who want to see greater openness and greater debate and want to see greater democracy."

Khamenei reacted strongly, saying Obama's statements contradicted the president's stated goal of opening dialogue with Iran and the conciliatory tone of other recent American messages.

"The U.S. president said 'We were waiting for a day like this to see people on the street,'" Khamenei said. "They write to us and say they respect the Islamic Republic and then they make comments like this. ... Which one should we believe?

Khamenei remained staunch in his defense of Ahmadinejad, saying his views were closer to the president's than to those of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful patron of Mousavi.

Ahmadinejad watched the sermon from the front row and conservative candidate Mohsen Rezaei could be seen in the audience.

State television did not show Mousavi in the crowd of thousands, which spilled out of the open-sided campus pavilion and filled surrounding streets.

Iran's Arabic-language state TV channel said before the service that Mousavi, Rezaei and reformist candidate Mahdi Karroubi would attend. Karroubi confirmed that but it was not clear from broadcasts of the sermon if he or Rafsanjani were in fact there.

Khamenei said the 11 million votes that separated Ahmadinejad from his top opponent, Mousavi, were proof that fraud did not occur.

"If the difference was 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million, well, one may say fraud could have happened. But how can one rig 11 million votes?" Khamenei asked.

Khamenei said Iran would not see a second revolution like those that transformed the countries of the former Soviet Union and pointed a finger at the U.S., Britain and what he called Iran's other enemies.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and other European Union leaders expressed dismay over the threat of a crackdown. The British Foreign Office told Iran's charge d'affairs in London that Khamenei's comments were "unacceptable and had no basis in fact," a spokesman said on condition of anonymity in line with policy.

The Foreign Office summoned the Iranian ambassador but said that in the end, the more junior diplomat attended the meeting with political director Mark Lyall Grant.

In Switzerland, Iranian Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi said Iran should hold a new election observed by international monitors, adding that more than 500 people have been arrested since the balloting. Her human rights office in Iran was raided last year, its files confiscated and several members subsequently arrested.

Khamenei's address was his first since hundreds of thousands of Mousavi supporters flooded the streets, evoking the revolution that ended Iran's U.S.-backed monarchy. On Thursday, supporters dressed in black and green marched in downtown Tehran in a somber, candlelit show of mourning for those killed in clashes since the election.

Khamenei said the street protests would not have any impact.

"Some may imagine that street action will create political leverage against the system and force the authorities to give in to threats. No, this is wrong," he said.

The supreme leader left open a small window for a legal challenge to the vote. He reiterated that he has ordered the Guardian Council, an unelected body of 12 clerics and Islamic law experts close to the supreme leader, to investigate voter fraud claims.

The council has said it was prepared to conduct a limited recount of ballots at sites where candidates claim irregularities.

Ahmadinejad has appeared to take the growing opposition more seriously in recent days, backtracking Thursday on his dismissal of the protesters as "dust" and sore losers.

The crowds in Tehran and elsewhere have been able to organize despite a government clampdown on the Internet and cell phones. The government has blocked certain Web sites, such as BBC Farsi, Facebook, Twitter and several pro-Mousavi sites that are vital conduits for Iranians to tell the world about protests and violence.

Text messaging, a primary source of spreading information in Tehran, has not been working since last week, and cell phone service in Tehran is frequently down. The government also has barred foreign news organizations from reporting on Tehran's streets.

The BBC said it was employing two new satellites to help circumvent Iranian jamming of its Persian-language service.

Google said it was launching a Persian-to-English translation service and Facebook said Iranian users could now use a Persian version of its site as a way of easing communication to the outside world.

I love it that they blame the 'Western media' when they block their own media from telling its side, because of course they had nothing to hide. Even better on MSNBC's Rachel Maddow show last night they showed that several cities had higher voter turnouts than their populations.

[BeBMan]

More of the usual Iran is teh roxors, no need to protest, it's all the evil guys from outside who are to blame:

Iran's supreme leader has issued a stern warning that protests against the country's disputed presidential election results must end.

In his first public remarks after days of protests, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the outcome had to be decided at the ballot box, not on the street.

He said political leaders would be blamed for any violence.

Demonstrators calling for a new election earlier vowed to stage fresh protests on Saturday.

But the governor of Tehran province, Morteza Tamadon, has said no permission has been given for such a rally and he hoped it would not be held.

Chants of support

Addressing huge crowds at Tehran University, the ayatollah voiced support for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, saying the president's views on foreign affairs and social issues were close to his.

LATEST FROM TEHRAN

Marcus George

Very robust words indeed from the Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Khamenei said the election results are fine and there's no way that any vote rigging could have happened in this nation.

That would be treacherous, he said. He has effectively endorsed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's landslide win. He said it just isn't possible to have vote rigging here.

In the meantime, he has told Western nations "keep your nose out of our business, these are domestic affairs you are meddling in and you are responsible for the allegations of vote rigging to begin with".

Mr Ahmadinejad was among the thousands of people who packed the campus and surrounding streets, punctuating the ayatollah's speech with chants.

Responding to allegations of electoral fraud, the ayatollah insisted the Islamic Republic would not cheat.

"There is 11 million votes difference," the ayatollah said. "How can one rig 11 million votes?"

He appealed to candidates who had doubts about the election result to pursue any challenges through legal avenues.

BBC Tehran correspondent Jon Leyne says that Ayatollah Khamenei appears to have staked everything on this election result and Mr Ahmadinejad.

It all points to heavy crackdowns if the protests continue, our correspondent says.

UK summons

In his highly anticipated address after Friday prayers, the ayatollah said despite differences of opinion among the presidential candidates, they were all trustworthy and loyal to the Islamic Republic.

He said the election was a "political earthquake" for Iran's enemies - singling out Britain as "the most evil of them" - whom he accused of trying to foment unrest in the country.

"Some of our enemies in different parts of the world intended to depict this absolute victory, this definitive victory, as a doubtful victory," the supreme leader said.


Some of our enemies... intended to depict this absolute victory, this definitive victory, as a doubtful victory
Ayatollah Khamenei

Profile: Ayatollah Khamenei
Protest at 'evil UK' comment
Iran's internet dilemma
Khamenei speech: Iran reaction

The UK government summoned the Iranian ambassador to protest against the ayatollah's remarks, although the embassy sent a more junior diplomat in his place.

In Washington, the House of Representatives voted 405-1 for a statement supporting democratic and fair elections, condemning the violence and the Iranian government's "suppression of independent electronic communications through interference with the internet and cell phones."

Although it has no practical impact, it was seen as the strongest message yet from the US government, where President Barack Obama has said he does not want to be seen to be "meddling".

Amnesty International said it was "extremely disturbed" by the speech, saying that it indicated the "authorities' readiness to launch violent crackdowns if people continue to protest".

Amnesty says its reports suggest that up to 10 protesters have been killed in clashes with security forces and plain-clothed militias.

It was revising its earlier report of 15 dead but said that at least four students were still unaccounted for after an attack on a Tehran University dormitory.

Iran has seen repeated opposition rallies since the presidential result was declared last Saturday.

More than 100,000 people took to the streets of Tehran on Thursday in a "day of mourning" for eight protesters killed in the capital on Monday by members of the pro-government Basij volunteer militia.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay has expressed concern at the number of arrests of opposition supporters and urged the government to rein in the militias.

Defeated candidates

The official results gave Mr Ahmadinejad 63% of the vote against 34% for his main election rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Defeated candidate Mehdi Karroubi has joined calls for the election to be declared void.

In an open letter to the electoral authorities, he wrote: "By deciding fairly to cancel the election and hold it again, you would be accepting the nation's will and guaranteeing the permanence of the system."

The Guardian Council - Iran's main electoral authority - has invited Mr Mousavi, Mr Karroubi and the other defeated candidate to discuss their objections on Saturday.

Looks like Khamenei wants to support Ahmadinejad at all costs. I hope this doesn't end in blood for the demonstrators...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8108661.stm

[BeBMan]

Theben

[Theben]

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

[Ramo]

These are really just a few of the variables involved in this decision. There is no telling which is the 'better' decision, I think, in that the outcome of either decision cannot be measured precisely at this point in time.

There is a pretty clear way to measure the expected return associated with these actions: look at what the Iranians are generally doing. The only argument that the regime has is that the demonstrators are foreign plants, meanwhile the reformists explicitly are appropriating symbolism associated with the Islamic revolution (green to represent Islam as their badge, Allahu Akbar as their slogan, etc.) - a revolution that was against a regime that the US had pivotal roles in creating and preserving. I think Obama's call is the right one, while a large subset of Republicans (i.e. that McCain fella) are acting irresponsibly. Association with us is most definitely not a positive in Iran. There's a case to be made that Obama personally may have some moral authority among a large number of Iranians, but not amongst that folks that need to be swayed immediately - the guys with the guns (i.e. the military, police, and even parts of the revolutionary guard). A more effective source for moral authority would be, i.e. the UN.

But I do agree with the thrust of what you're saying. Clearly call out human rights abuses, without taking sides in the election dispute. I think that's the basic consensus in the leadership here and the UK. Going further than that would be a bad idea (unless the circumstances change in certain ways).

[Ramo]

But it is amusing that guys like Wolfy and Kagan have such a great belief in the power of Obama's rhetoric. After calling him the Obamessiah for the past couple years, maybe they're starting to believe it.

[Ramo]

Interesting piece from Steve Clemons:

As of yesterday the options facing the country were well summarised by Simon Tisdall and Ellie Rose in The Guardian:

1 - Happy ending

To widespread surprise, the hardline Guardian Council conducts a thorough recount of votes, as ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and decides, amid much embarrassment, that there should be a new election. Mir Hossein Mousavi wins. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accepts defeat. Pro-democracy demonstrators celebrate triumph of "green revolution". New government responds positively to US invitation to "unclench fist" and open talks on nuclear issue.

2 - Damp squib

The partial recount ordered by the Supreme Leader concludes Ahmadinejad won a clear victory, although by a narrower margin. Despite lingering suspicions of foul play, the opposition is forced to accept the verdict amid a continuing nationwide crackdown on dissent and warnings that further disorder will be dealt with harshly. Ahmadinejad, in bad odour with the Supreme Leader for provoking demonstrators, moderates his line on policy issues. Mousavi vows to fight again.

3 - Confrontation

The Guardian Council's partial vote recount and investigation into electoral fraud are rejected by the opposition. Demonstrations spread and intensify, with ever greater numbers of Iranians taking to the streets calling for the resignation of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. Security forces respond with increasing force, arresting thousands and closing down media coverage, texting networks, websites and Twitter. Purge of reformist leaders, intellectuals, students and journalists continues. Leaderless demos gradually peter out, leaving resentment. Ahmadinejad steps up anti-western rhetoric. Resumed protests at a later date considered highly likely.

4 - A second revolution

An insider cabal of senior clerical and establishment conservatives challenges Khamenei and forces his resignation after a vote in the Assembly of Experts. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani is elected in his stead and orders an investigation into the actions of Ahmadinejad and other senior members of the regime. Hardliners rally round the president while reformists demand new elections. Amid growing instability, Iran's unique Islamic/secular system of governance appears in danger of collapse".

As of Mr. Khameneni's speech today it seems that (1) above is no longer an option. For everything that Mousavi has publically announced option (2) also seems unlikely.

Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.

Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected.

The Basiji's are not.

These are not the students in the dorms, they're the street young -- they know the ways better than most thugs - and these young, a surprising number of them girls, are becoming more agile in their ways as each night passes on.

Also, with $10K every local police station lock can be broken and guns taken out...the police too are crowd friendly...for sure put a gun in their hands and these young become a serious counter-balance to the Basij...call them 10% of 18-22 year olds - that makes circa 10 million around the country versus max 4 million Basijis.

For all I've seen, discussed and observed on the ground I wouldn't dismiss option (4) too easily.

[Kuciwalker]

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.

Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected.

The Basiji's are not.

These are not the students in the dorms, they're the street young -- they know the ways better than most thugs - and these young, a surprising number of them girls, are becoming more agile in their ways as each night passes on.

Could someone translate this into English?