Another Round Begins in The Middle East

[onodera]

Originally posted by Traianvs


Let's not forget the west thwarted a successful emergence of Congolese democracy and governance by murdering Lumumba.

It's also ironic that essential world powers like the US are not in favour of strong action of the UNSC in North-Kivu. Just putting the ball back into your court

But Lumumba was a communist, and communists cannot be democratically elected, this is impossible, therefore we had to save the democracy and kill him! Why is Kirkpatrick Doctrine so hard for you to understand?

:frownod:

[Traianvs]

News reports talk of Egyptian ambulances near the southern Gaza border waiting in vain for Palestinian wounded. Apparently Hamas refuses to let these people be treated outside of Gaza. This appears to be in tune with the analysis made elsewhere in this thread. On the other hand, Egypt has closed its borders in agreement with Israel. Sort of an ambiguous situation. EDIT: Hamas wants the border to be opened to everyone, not only the wounded, meaning it's a political demand. Egypt can't allow that on the basis of the agreement between the EU, PLA and Israel.

That said, I heard on the radio today that Barak announced the airstrikes were only the beginning of Israel's retribution. Clearly Barak is capitalizing on his current success by holding a hold a 'Total War'. In light of the coming elections it doesn't come much as a surprise. From antipathy to hero in no time: it's a good scenario from his perspective.

He's probably planning on holding a ground offensive, considering journalists were barred from several so called forbidden military zones around Gaza, and the accumulation of Israeli armour close by.

[Ramo]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov


I'll disregard the nonsense regarding likud. I have no idea what you are talking about and that is topic for a different thread anyhow.

I was talking about a likely repeat of the Lebanon War. Kadima tries to do something dumb, then Likud benefits. The figure within Likud whom I was referring to is Feiglin.

http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_rebel_prince

The end game is to
a) severely reduce Hamas' military capability to pose a threat on Israeli forces

Its conventional capabilities. The kinds of capabilities that enable a political entity to act as a state, rather than a terrorist group.

b) change Hamas' perception that they can continue shelling Israel daily with little serious consequences.

And Hamas can point to the Israeli siege that continued despite the supposed truce. Which is arguably more serious, measured by the magnitude of human suffering, than a handful of rockets that didn't actually lead to a single Israeli fatality until this extremely disproportionate response.

c) get a cease fire from a weakened Hamas that is reminded of it's force ratio to ours.

At the price of getting plenty of civilians killed, their families and friends radicalized, and yourselves more diplomatically isolated. Yeah, nice job on that.

You used to think you were a smart kid, not a delusioned one.

Hamas was having none of that recognizing Israel and that was among the main reasons which made them kidnap Gilad Shalit - to move the public spotlight away from the uncomfortable political dialogue.

The Prisoners' Document was not that far from recognition. It defined the borders of a Pal state as pre-'67. But it was dismissed as a nonstarter by Olmert.

Isolation of Gaza has been an abysmal failure. What gives you confidence in continuing this policy?

The way to undermine the militant wing in Hamas is to engage the political wing.

[Felch]

Originally posted by Traianvs
It's also ironic that essential world powers like the US are not in favour of strong action of the UNSC in North-Kivu. Just putting the ball back into your court

So Belgium is big and important enough to rape a nation for a few generations, but the US has to fix what you guys broke? What's the matter, did your balls drop off?

[snoopy369]

Felch, clearly the answer to that question is yes, almost a century ago. They never recovered from the ****ing the Germans gave them in 1914...

[Felch]

Originally posted by Ramo
And Hamas can point to the Israeli siege that continued despite the supposed truce. Which is arguably more serious, measured by the magnitude of human suffering, than a handful of rockets that didn't actually lead to a single Israeli fatality until this extremely disproportionate response.

So if your house gets shot up by some random drive-by, but nobody dies, it's not such a big deal? Just vandalism, maybe an unlawful discharge of a firearm in city limits, or something like that?

Remember that if Arabs actually had jobs like everybody else in the world, the siege wouldn't work. They'd sell goods and services through the Egyptian boundary, and Israel would be the only loser for isolating itself from productive economic activity.

Unfortunately for the Arabs, they're allergic to holding down a job. Ever bought a tool made in Syria, a toy made in Yemen, or a piece of software written by a Saudi? Of course not. They're too busy beating their wives and blaming the Jews for all their problems.

[Felch]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Felch, clearly the answer to that question is yes, almost a century ago. They never recovered from the ****ing the Germans gave them in 1914...

Considering how worthless they are in Afghanistan, the Germans never recovered from what we did to them in '45.

The question is, how does Israel do to Hamas what Germany did to Belgium, and we did to the Germans? Clearly there's historical precedence for violence breaking a nation's will.

[TCO]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov


I'll disregard the nonsense regarding likud. I have no idea what you are talking about and that is topic for a different thread anyhow.

The end game is to
a) severely reduce Hamas' military capability to pose a threat on Israeli forces
b) change Hamas' perception that they can continue shelling Israel daily with little serious consequences.
c) get a cease fire from a weakened Hamas that is reminded of it's force ratio to ours.

The strategic reasoning for this operation is solid


Mind you, I don't think we are doing it perfectly. Far from it.

Personally, I think we should have publicly declared a cessation of war this morning, and waited for the Hamas response, with a severe retribution prepared for the worst case.

I think we won't have the guts to seriously clean house, which leads to the conclusion the management of this operation as a continuous one is not smart.

Anytime that the conflict is declared active, but that is between peeks of military attack is time that we are losing initiative and appearance of might. As long as we haven't physically confronted the Hamas forces, we now only stand humiliation by crappy yet agile Hamas rockets.

I fear we don't have the guts to respond seriously enough to the Hamas response, and now we stand only to dilute the success of the first 2 days.



You used to think you were a smart kid, not a delusioned one.

Hamas was having none of that recognizing Israel and that was among the main reasons which made them kidnap Gilad Shalit - to move the public spotlight away from the uncomfortable political dialogue.

The Gaza leadership was doing everything it can to publically present a positive attitude while infact rejecting each and every point in that agreement.

There was even a huge rift between Gaza and Syrian leaderships regarding the severity in which the clauses regarding Israel should be condemned.

And it's not like clauses regarding the unity government were going anywhere.

Really good analyses. For what it's worth, perhaps you should continue or even escalate the bombing. At least it keeps the initiative. US almost stopped Kosovo/Serbia bombing campaign, but than we were surprised when Slobo buckled. FWIW, I don't think you'll ever have the world more behind you. And you need to exploit that more than the Pals, who win by delay. Thus the argument against a bombing pause.

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Hamas coup?! Didn't Hamas win a majority of the seats in parliament? And Fatah's leadership was unwilling to hand over the reigns.

I'm used to people missing small events, but this was a huge event that completely changed the nature of the PA.

You are welcome to educate yourself:
Hamas coup in Gaza – Volume 13, Issue 5 – June 2007
Hamas "coup" is serious blow to creation of Palestinian state, former U.N. Mideast envoy says
Britain condemns Hamas 'coup d'etat' in Gaza

As for:

humanitarian and commercial aid were not completely ceased

All you need to do is click on the link, which has the UN's RWA saying it cannot get medical supplies to people in Gaza due to Isreal's blockade.

I believe them far, far more than I believe you.

It is sad that you do. You also misunderstand / misquote.

Never does the spokesman say the blockade ceased all humanitarian aid. He says that there are supplies that UNRWA was unable to deliver. This is quite obvious due to the security problems in operating the crossing under fire.

Nowhere does he say that there was no humanitarian aid at all.

Infact let me quote you another article it took me a second to find:
Washington Post, December 2007

But since the rocket attacks from Gaza began -- killing a total of 13 Israeli citizens since the start of the most recent Palestinian uprising in September 2000 -- the frequent closure of crossings to Israel has choked the export-reliant Palestinian economy.

Hamas, which won parliamentary elections in January 2006, trounced the U.S.-backed Fatah movement in Gaza in June. The violent takeover, which Hamas swiftly consolidated politically and culturally, cemented the strip's isolation.

The political divide is widening between the West Bank, where the U.S.-backed administration of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah is in control, and Hamas-run Gaza. The two regions were once envisioned as the twin territories of a Palestinian state.

Now rolling blackouts have begun across the strip, partly because the Palestinian Authority refused for days last week to pay the Israeli company that supplies fuel to Gaza. The strip was receiving only about 24,000 gallons of diesel fuel a day, the lifeblood of the private-sector economy. Before June, the strip received nearly 80,000 gallons of diesel a day.

The Authority has paid its bills, but Israel has limited daily diesel deliveries to Gaza to about 50,000 gallons, some of which is used by the Hamas government and security forces. In addition, Israel sends 80,000 gallons a month directly to the U.N. agency for refugees to ensure that its operation continues.

Lerner, the Israeli military liaison, said this week that he would contact the International Committee of the Red Cross to make sure hearing-aid batteries would be allowed through the crossings.

A spokeswoman for the Atfaluna Society said none had been received so far.

The restrictions have also hampered the society's vocational programs, which use well-equipped wood shops, weaving looms and pottery studios. Thread for traditional Palestinian embroidery, wood for painted boxes and pottery glazes mostly remain on the far side of the backlogged Israeli border crossings.

"We may have enough for another month," said Mohamed al-Sharif, 36, who supervises the classes. "Then we will run out again."

Trucks carrying tobacco and coffee usually have low priority in the lines backed up at the crossings. Israeli military officials say they try to push 60 to 70 trucks through a day, despite frequent rocket and small-arms attacks.

In the meantime, Gazans improvise. "We've bought 20 tons of coffee from every store here we could find," said Riyadh Haigar, owner of the popular Delice Coffee Shop. "Maybe it'll last a month. Then we close the doors."

One of the major reasons for closures is this:

http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/2008/05/22/africa/OUKWD-UK-PALESTINIANS-ISRAEL-VIOLENCE.php

GAZA: A truck laden with four tonnes of explosives blew up near an Israeli border crossing with the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip on Thursday but only the suicide bomber was killed in the blast heard 30 km (18 miles) away.

Here's another article from a year ago explaining reality to people like you:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/MAC827477.htm

It is not enough, U.N. officials say, warning of a looming "humanitarian crisis". The Israeli army says its doing what it can while facing attack from bombs and mortars on the frontier.

Israeli troops manning a land, sea and air cordon around the 45-km (30-mile) strip of Mediterranean coast have orders not to speak to Hamas members, whose group seeks to defeat Israel.

"Now there is nobody on the Palestinian side who is trying to coordinate with us. We are not talking with Hamas," said Colonel Nir Press, who runs frontier posts on the Israeli side.

"We're waiting until someone comes to us and coordinates," Press added, saying most of those who worked on the Gaza side were from Hamas's rival faction and are no longer in contact.

That had forced the closure of the complex, major crossing points at Erez, for people, and the Karni freight terminal. Egypt has also closed its crossing with Gaza, at Rafah.

CRISIS

However, aid groups, private merchants and the military are coming up with what Press calls "creative solutions" to ensuring the 1.5 million Gazans do not starve for the time being.

"We're very pleased with the initiative that the army have shown," said U.N. spokesman Christopher Gunness.

But the United Nations and other aid groups say Gaza, from which Israel pulled out two years ago, does face grave economic problems in time if its meagre trade outlets remain sealed. They want Karni, which can handle 300 trucks a day, reopened quickly.

"There aren't enough supplies going into Gaza to stave off a humanitarian crisis," Gunness said on Friday, estimating only about half of a required 175 truckloads were getting across.

For its part, the Israeli army says it is limited by attacks on its efforts. A previously little used crossing at Kerem Shalom, in the south, now handles 20 or more trucks a day -- but was closed on Monday after a bomb was planted there overnight.

"You open Kerem Shalom for the people and what do they send us? They send us bombs," Press said at the crossing on Wednesday -- shortly after mortars also hit close to his own office.

"If someone wants a humanitarian crisis, it's up to them not us," he added. "We're really trying to help the people in Gaza."

At Kerem Shalom, Israeli trucks are offloaded onto secure shuttle vehicles that ferry them over the border to be picked up by Palestinian merchants. No Palestinian officials are involved.

At another of the improvised operations on Wednesday, the Sufa crossing, 79 Israeli trucks were moving in a dusty roar through the frontier fence into a sealed off field guarded by troops. Once they had left their loads, the Israelis would pull back, close the gate and trucks from Gaza would move in.

FLOWERS

Among supplies were two refrigerated trucks of carnation plants -- by autumn, growers will hope to export the flowers.

On Thursday, another element was added with a shipment of 500 tonnes of wheat along a 200-metre cross-border conveyer belt near the Karni terminal. It was previously used to move gravel.

That operation, the Israeli military said, required contact with Palestinian "contractors" on the Gaza side. A senior Hamas security official in Gaza City told Reuters that Hamas was ready to work to restore trade and traffic -- including, if Israel wished, having non-Hamas border officials get back to work.

Such partners will be necessary, Press said, if Israel is to reopen fully the complex operations at Karni and Erez.

Movement of people out of Gaza has virtually halted after Israel let a few hundred leave just after the Hamas takeover.

You're welcome to educate yourself more regarding realities of Hamas rule in Gaza.

And don't be silly, as soon as Hamas won the general elections, Israel (as well as the rest of the Western world) was saber rattling. The only inaccuracies and lies I see are coming from you and Eli.

You haven't got a clue what's happening there.
The Hamas take-over and defacto breaking down of the PA is the biggest news to hit Gaza since the Israeli pullout, and you are utterly ignorant of facts.

I suggest you read up before you embarrass yourself more.

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by dannubis
So, how many civilians will be sacrificed to achieve wathever goal this time ?

Murderers

I don't know.

Depends how many palestinians Hamas are willing to sacrifice on the alter of provocation against Israel.

As soon as they're done, we'll stop.

[TCO]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

As for:

humanitarian and commercial aid were not completely ceased

All you need to do is click on the link, which has the UN's RWA saying it cannot get medical supplies to people in Gaza due to Isreal's blockade.

I believe them far, far more than I believe you.

Read, the whole exhibit, counselor. Lower down he agrees that they had "complete blocking" at later times.

Sheesh, these Emory kids.

[TCO]

Originally posted by dannubis
So, how many civilians will be sacrificed to achieve wathever goal this time ?

Murderers

Are you making a parady of an Old Europe liberal?

[TCO]

Siro: You still owe me an answer. Chop, chop. Any minute they could be calling you up to man a tank.

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by Ramo
I was talking about a likely repeat of the Lebanon War. Kadima tries to do something dumb, then Likud benefits. The figure within Likud whom I was referring to is Feiglin.

http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_rebel_prince

Feiglin is in no way a prominent Likud figure.
He's an odd bird, that forces his way into Likkud despite his views being unpopular in the leadership and the Likkud electorate.

Feiglin knows he has no chance to get a serious spot in a fringe right wing group, so he abuses the lax party registration rules to register tons of his own supporters as "Likud" members thereby getting a spot in Likud and then hopefully winning votes via the general Likud electorate.

I'm not sure amount of votes he got in Likud would get him in the Knesset had he ran in his own party. This political trick is the only reason for his Likud ticket.

[quote]
Its conventional capabilities. The kinds of capabilities that enable a political entity to act as a state, rather than a terrorist group.[/qoute]
I'm not sure how that relates to what I said.
Hamas police bases are used to plan and launch attacks against Israel.
Hamas operatives store munitions and rockets in their homes' basements.

And Hamas can point to the Israeli siege that continued despite the supposed truce. Which is arguably more serious, measured by the magnitude of human suffering, than a handful of rockets that didn't actually lead to a single Israeli fatality until this extremely disproportionate response.

The Israeli response takes into account Hamas's intentions and volume of rockets fired - not the technical savviness or lack of it, of Hamas engineers.
Are you suggesting we let more missiles drop and respond only when they learn to aim better?

At the price of getting plenty of civilians killed, their families and friends radicalized, and yourselves more diplomatically isolated. Yeah, nice job on that.

Yadda Yadda radicalized.
That argument doesn't work.
Anyone who can be radicalized is radicalized already.

Hamas have single handedly turn huge civilian areas into effective military storehouses or bases for operations.

According to the geneva convention, such activity completely annuls any special status a protected civilian area receives, and military action against military targets in this area is perfectly legal and moral.

The Prisoners' Document was not that far from recognition. It defined the borders of a Pal state as pre-'67. But it was dismissed as a nonstarter by Olmert.

This is a joke.
The prisoner's document, and documents far less out-reaching that it were absolutely dismissed by Hamas leadership.

Isolation of Gaza has been an abysmal failure. What gives you confidence in continuing this policy?

I don't think Gaza Isolation is doing good for anyone.
I'd be happy if we lift it as much as security allows, once attacks cease.

The way to undermine the militant wing in Hamas is to engage the political wing.

What a joke.
Hamas does not have wings.
It has a structure in which there is a political leadership that oversees a military organization (Aziz Al-Kassam brigades, and now several police forces).
The military organization is subject to political leadership decisions and every order regarding military action is authorized by the political leadership.

I tell you this on very good ground.

[TCO]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov

I don't know.

Depends how many palestinians Hamas are willing to sacrifice on the alter of provocation against Israel.

As soon as they're done, we'll stop.

Keep going for a while. Need to drive the lesson home.