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Final Predictions for U.S. Elections

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  • #31
    Obama 381
    McCain 157
    I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
    - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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    • #32
      Originally posted by VJ
      Well yeah obviously, DC goes Democratic with over 15 points.

      It's too small to notice in the map. I originally had drawn the map with Democrats as color red.
      It's not too small to be noticed on the map, otherwise I would not have seen it.
      A lot of Republicans are not racist, but a lot of racists are Republican.

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      • #33
        I basically agree with Boris.

        Obama: 53, 364 (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+NV+VA+NC+OH+FL+MO)
        McCain: 45, 174

        8 Senate pickups, In descending margin: VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, OR, NC, and a narrow win in MN. GA goes to a runoff, resolved in December (and Chambliss holds it).

        I'll say 32 House pickups, since 101 is a nice number. Likely losing Dem incumbents: Mahoney, Lampson, and Kanjorski.

        CA Prop 8 loses by 3%.
        "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
        -Bokonon

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Ramo
          ...

          CA Prop 8 loses by 3%.
          And indeed there will be time To wonder, "Do I dare?" and, "Do I dare?". t s eliot

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          • #35
            Obama - 291
            McCain - 247 (McCain squeaks out Florida and Ohio)

            Whats really scary is if gets those 2 and somehow squeaks out Virginia and Colorado it would be a 269-269 tie.

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            • #36
              Deity Dude, then we do the whole race again, right?

              I want Hillary next time.
              Long time member @ Apolyton
              Civilization player since the dawn of time

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              • #37
                Originally posted by KrazyHorse
                In general agreement with your predictions, mod one important difference:

                Obama loses MO, brings him down to 353 (given likely map configuration I'm assuming you're predicting MO for Obama, not IN)
                FYI, Nate @ 538 says the same.
                Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                • #38
                  McCain fends Obama off in Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida, as well as all the ones that are redder than that.

                  Obama 327, McCain 211.

                  Popular vote: Obama 51.5%, McCain 47.0%.

                  Senate: Coleman defeats Franken. None of the other Senate races appear to be close.
                  "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                  Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

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                  • #39
                    Obama 367 McCain 171
                    Last edited by The Emperor Fabulous; November 4, 2008, 15:24.
                    "I predict your ignore will rival Ben's" - Ecofarm
                    ^ The Poly equivalent of:
                    "I hope you can see this 'cause I'm [flipping you off] as hard as I can" - Ignignokt the Mooninite

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                    • #40

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Lancer
                        Deity Dude, then we do the whole race again, right?

                        I want Hillary next time.
                        The House of Reps would choose the President. Since the House is Democrat-controlled they would take Obama.

                        The Senate, if Lieberman voted with the Republicans, would tie again at 50-50, so Cheney, the Vice President (who breaks ties in the Senate) would vote Palin.

                        Then you would have Obama - Palin. Assuming the Senate would be that partisan and not just rubberstamp the Obama ticket.

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Deity Dude


                          The House of Reps would choose the President. Since the House is Democrat-controlled they would take Obama.

                          The Senate, if Lieberman voted with the Republicans, would tie again at 50-50, so Cheney, the Vice President (who breaks ties in the Senate) would vote Palin.

                          Then you would have Obama - Palin. Assuming the Senate would be that partisan and not just rubberstamp the Obama ticket.
                          Nope, the VP does not get to cast a tie-breaking vote in this situation. That's only for legislation.
                          Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Boris Godunov


                            Nope, the VP does not get to cast a tie-breaking vote in this situation. That's only for legislation.
                            Where did you get that from. I am not saying you are wrong I have just never heard that and when I looked it up I couldn't find that provision.

                            The only thing I could find in the Constitution was this:

                            The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote unless they be equally divided.
                            [U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 3, clause 4]

                            which says nothing about legislative issues only.

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Deity Dude
                              Where did you get that from. I am not saying you are wrong I have just never heard that and when I looked it up I couldn't find that provision.
                              Well, at best it's unclear:

                              NPR Political Editor Ken Rudin answers your questions. This week: What would happen in case of a dreaded tie vote in the Electoral College.


                              (The Senate does have a role; it chooses the vice president. Each senator gets one vote. Would Vice President Cheney be allowed to break a 50-50 tie? That's probably unlikely. A tie vote -- God help us -- would no doubt lead to the Supreme Court deciding.
                              Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                              • #45
                                By the way, it's the INCOMING Congress which gets to select the Prez and VP if there's an EC tie. Since the Dems are about to pick up a whole bunch of Senate seats, Lieberman cannot force a tie. As far as I know, this also means that the incumbent VP has no say, because he is President of the OUTGOING Senate.
                                12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                                Stadtluft Macht Frei
                                Killing it is the new killing it
                                Ultima Ratio Regum

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