Final Predictions for U.S. Elections

[Boris Godunov]

The previous election prediction thread is a good record of where we thought things were months ago, but this is specifically for last-minute predictions that go to a further degree of accuracy. It's also to predict the outcome in Congress.

PRESIDENT

Obama: 52.3% 364 Electoral Votes
McCain: 45.5% 174 Electoral Votes

EDIT: Map imbed not working. Damn.

U.S. SENATE

Democratic Pick-ups: 8

AK - Begich (D) defeats Stevens (R)
CO - Udall (D) defeats Schaffer (R)
NC - Hagen (D) defeats Dole (R)
MN - Franken (D) defeats Coleman (R) - tightest race of the night
NH - Shaheen (D) defeats Sununu (R)
NM - Udall (D) defeats Pierce (R)
OR - Merkley (D) defeats Smith (R)
VA - Warner (D) defeats Gilmore (R)

Republican Pick-ups: 0

KY - McConnell (R) defeats Lunsford (D)
MS - Wicker (R) defeats Musgrove (D)
LA - Landrieu (D) defeats Kennedy (R)

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

The Democrats will pick up a net gain of 27 house seats, bringing their majority to 99 seats, 262-173.

The only Democrats to lose their seats will be Mahoney in FL-16, Lampson in TX-22 and Kanjorski in PA-11. They also might lose Shea-Porter's seat in NH-01.

MISC.

California voters reject Proposition 8 (amendment banning same-sex marriages) 52-48.

[KrazyHorse]

In general agreement with your predictions, mod one important difference:

Obama loses MO, brings him down to 353 (given likely map configuration I'm assuming you're predicting MO for Obama, not IN)

[KrazyHorse]

Also, I think that the popular vote will be within 5%. 51.5-47 Obama

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
In general agreement with your predictions, mod one important difference:

Obama loses MO, brings him down to 353 (given likely map configuration I'm assuming you're predicting MO for Obama, not IN)

Correct.

I'm giving Obama the edge in MO because of a few factors: The large AA population in St. Louis, the proximity to his home state and the fact that he overperformed his polling there in the Democratic primary and squeaked out a win over Clinton. But it will be a very close state.

Indiana will also be a dead heat, but I think it's Republican history is too much to overcome, so it will barely go for McCain.

[KrazyHorse]

I think you're underestimating white Republican dislike for the idea of a black President, driving up their turnout. Please note that I'm not claiming that all or even most need colour as a reason to vote against Obama.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Presidential Election: 338-200 Obama

Obama wins the Kerry states and NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA, FL

Senate: Dems pick up NH, VA, NC, NM, CO, OR, AK

House: Dems gain 22.

[KrazyHorse]

Also, just noticed that the NM Dem Sen candidate is also named Udall.

Had me confused for a few seconds.

[Guynemer]

I think you're both a little overly optimistic. Obama 306-232 (picking up IA, CO, NM, OH, VA), popular vote 51-48ish. I think the turnout will be slightly down on the West Coast late, since the election will be in hand, driving down Obama's popular vote total.

I'm thinking 7 pickups in the Senate (Coleman will eke out the win in MN), and 28 in the House.


I will perform some thread necromancy on the original thread.

[rah]

A nice weather day across the country traditionally bodes well for the democrats. McCain catches no breaks.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Also, just noticed that the NM Dem Sen candidate is also named Udall.

Had me confused for a few seconds.

They're cousins.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Guynemer
I think the turnout will be slightly down on the West Coast late, since the election will be in hand, driving down Obama's popular vote total.

I don't think that will effect the Democrats nearly as much as it will the Republicans. Look at 1980.

Given that Democrats have a 2-1 enthusiasm gap going into this election, I say they're much more likely to remain at the polls even if the outcome of the election is a forgone conclusion at that point.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Guynemer
I think you're both a little overly optimistic. Obama 306-232 (picking up IA, CO, NM, OH, VA),

This is easily within the realm of possibility, though I think granting FL, NC and NV straight up to McCain is as pessimistic as Boris' guess that Obama will run the table (mod IN) is optimistic.

If you take out OH from your Obama pickups then it's pretty much the best McCain could reasonably hope for, while if you add IN into Boris' guess it's pretty much the best that Obama could reasonably hope for.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
If you take out OH from your Obama pickups then it's pretty much the best McCain could reasonably hope for, while if you add IN into Boris' guess it's pretty much the best that Obama could reasonably hope for.

I disagree on the latter, as I think Obama can reasonably hope for GA, ND and MT as well. Not probable perhaps, but definitely possible, depending on the turnout.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Presidential Election: 338-200 Obama

This is the guess I was close to making. NC will be very close, but I think a huge black turnout will put Obama over the top here.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


I disagree on the latter, as I think Obama can reasonably hope for GA, ND and MT as well

Perhaps "reasonable" as in "beyond a reasonable doubt", but not something that would even be in my mind as a candidate (other than to prove I could come really close in those states and thus increase my perceived mandate).