The Last Election Thread

[Boris Godunov]

Here are the final tracking polls so far:

Poll              Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV 

Research 2000:   51 (51)    45 (44)    3         LV  Final 
Reuters/Zogby:   51 (50)    44 (44)    2.9       LV  Final 
USAToday/Gallup: 53 (52)    42 (45)    2         LV  Final 
Gallup:          53 (52)    42 (43)    2         LV  Final
NBC/WSJ:         51 (52)    43 (42)    3.1       LV  Final 
Rasmussen:       52 (51)    46 (46)    2         LV  Final  
Diageo/Hotline:  50 (50)    45 (45)    3.4       LV  Final??

Obama is at 50% or more in all of them, and his margin is outside the MoE in all of them.

The overall trend from Pollster.com:

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


*cough* Post #302.

Also, I think his Weekend Update was hilarious! "The Double Maverick",

FFS John, GET OFF THE DAMNED TELEPROMPTER!!!!1 That was so unnatural that I felt sorry for the guy.

The "Sad Grandpa" was pretty good though, reminds me of that "Not ready...yet" commercial they ran after Obama's informercial.

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Here are the final tracking polls so far:

Poll              Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV 

Research 2000:   51 (51)    45 (44)    3         LV  Final 
Reuters/Zogby:   51 (50)    44 (44)    2.9       LV  Final 
USAToday/Gallup: 53 (52)    42 (45)    2         LV  Final 
Gallup:          53 (52)    42 (43)    2         LV  Final
NBC/WSJ:         51 (52)    43 (42)    3.1       LV  Final 
Rasmussen:       52 (51)    46 (46)    2         LV  Final  
Diageo/Hotline:  50 (50)    45 (45)    3.4       LV  Final??

Obama is at 50% or more in all of them, and his margin is outside the MoE in all of them.

Actually you are wrong about the margin of error because it applies to both candidates not the difference between the 2.

Take your bottom one Diageo/Hotline. Obama has 5o% - McCain 45 resulting in a 5 pt lead with a MoE of 3.5%.

What that means is Obama could be as low as (50-3.5) 46.5. McCain could be as high as (45+3.5) 48.5. So in that poll Obama could win by as much as 12% or lose by as much as 2%.

So in all actuality in your bottom and top reference McCain is within the margin of error for winning the popular vote. But that in reality is immaterial.

Assuming you believe polls taken a few days ago are still accurate. Assuming you believe MoE estimates, which as I have pointed out earlier are sometimes incompatable. The true picture would be taking the 51 separate elections and examining the MoE for each state.

Please don't take this post to mean that I am saying McCain is going to win. Just correcting your statement about Margin of Error.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


True, but revoking said privilege because they criticise you completely destroys the whole point of freedom of speech. Yeah, they are gonna criticise you and make fun of you, it's a fact of life. Obama needs a thicker skin.

Fox News' Major Garrett Defends Obama Against "Fox & Friends" In Leaked E-Mail

Fox News correspondent Major Garrett shot back in defense of Barack Obama against the network's morning show's effort to suggest that he has ignored Fox News throughout the campaign. In an internal email obtained by the Huffington Post, Garrett — who has been Fox News' correspondent following the Obama campaign — took issue with a planned "Fox & Friends" segment about whether Obama will try to control the media, using "KICKED REPORTERS OFF PLANE, IGNORE FNC, BIDEN FL AV INTVIEW" as "examples he's already done."

"May I point out Obama has done 5 interviews with me and one with Chris Wallace, one with Brit Hume and one with Bill O'Reilly," Garrett replied-all to a "Fox & Friends" producer's email. "That's 8 interviews. Would I like more? Yes. Would Chris Wallace? Yes. Would Brit and O'Reilly like more? Of course."

The e-mail, which went to a significant portion of Fox News staff, continued, comparing Obama's eight interviews with Fox News to the five Hillary Clinton gave the network.

"Just a note to add some real numbers and a grain of context," Garrett said. "Apologies if I left out any other big interview of Obama [or] Clinton on our network."

The planned guest, Media Research Center president Brent Bozell, did appear but the segment was retooled to discuss the media coverage of Obama's remarks on the coal industry.

Read the full e-mail below:

-----Original Message-----
From: Garrett, Major
Sent: Sunday, November 02, 2008 9:23 PM
To: [redacted]
Subject: Re: F & F Guests, November 3, 2008

In the context of the 6:15 am B Block "IGNORE FNC" segment, may I point out Obama has done 5 interviews with me and one with Chris Wallace, one with Brit Hume and one with Bill O'Reilly. That's 8 interviews. Would I like more? Yes. Would Chris Wallace? Yes. Would Brit and O'Reilly like more? Of course.

But it's still 8 interviews with FNC in this campaign. By comparison, my count is the Hillary Clinton did 5 FNC interviews with FNC during the campaign: 3 with me, one with Chris Wallace and one with O'Reilly. This does not count morning round-robins done during the primaries as those tend not to have any selectivity to them.

Just a note to add some real numbers and a grain of context. Apologies if I left out any other big interview of Obama of Clinton on our network.

MG
Major Garrett
Fox News

----- Original Message -----
From: [redacted]
To: [redacted]
Sent: Sun Nov 02 19:59:31 2008
Subject: F & F Guests, November 3, 2008

FOX & FRIENDS GUESTS FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2008 - 1 DAY UNTIL THE
ELECTION!
*** 5AM START!!!! ***

5:00 (A-BLOCK) COLD OPEN // QUICK TEASE

// News HEADLINES // TALKING POINTS

[...]

----------------------
6:15 (B-BLOCK) - 2 STORIES ((ANCHOR))

& BRENT BOZELL- WILL OBAMA TRY TO CONTROL THE MEDIA? EXAMPLES HE'S
ALREADY DONE- KICKED REPORTERS OFF PLANE, IGNORE FNC, BIDEN FL AV
INTVIEW, ((DC BUREAU))

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/fox-news-major-garrett-de_n_140503.html

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Alaska, per Hays Research:

Question 1

If the election for United States President and Vice President were held today and the candidates were: John McCain and Sarah Palin, or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, for whom would you vote?

McCain/Palin 46.6%
Obama/Biden 43.9%

and

Question 2

Thinking about Sarah Palin, would you say your opinion of her has changed since she was named the Vice Presidential candidate on August 29th?

(IF YES) Has the change been positive or negative?
Yes, positive 11.3%
Yes, negative 37.0%
No change 49.1%

http://www.haysresearch.com/OC110208.htm

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Deity Dude


Actually you are wrong about the margin of error because it applies to both candidates not the difference between the 2.

This is true, and is rarely if ever made clear (my guess is that the people reporting the poll numbers don't understand this).

[chequita guevara]

Re: The Last Election Thread

You lied.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Pollster.com - Senate Races

Alaska
Begich (D) 49.0
Stevens (R-inc) 45.2

Georgia
Chambliss (R-inc) 47.1
Martin (D) 44.3

Kentucky
McConnell (R-inc) 47.5 (Senate Minority Leader)
Lunsford (D) 44.4

Minnesota
Franken (D) 39.5
Coleman (R-inc) 37.6
Barkley (I) 14.5

Mississippi-B
Wicker (R-inc) 49.4
Musgrove (D) 44.4

New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) 49.0
Sununu (R-inc) 41.3

North Carolina
Hagen (D) 48.2
Dole (R-Inc) 43.8
Cole (L) 3.2

Oregon
Merkley (D) 47.2
Smith (R-inc) 41.3

Virginia (R), Louisiana (D), Colorado (R) and New Mexico (R) all have the Democrat polling at least +10. Maine and Texas, at least +10 for the Republican incumbents.

I predict Dems gain VA, CO, NM, AK, OR, NC, and NH, leaving them two shy (w/Lieberman) of 60.

[Boris Godunov]

Franken will win in MN. A late-breaking Coleman scandal has been in the news there over the weekend, and the latest poll had Franken pulling ahead a little. Also, he will probably pick up a good amount of Barkley voters. They are heavily anti-Coleman, and the closeness of the Senate race will prompt many to throw the lever for Franken instead.

And also, Obama will win the state handily, so he should have some coattails.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I predict Dems gain VA, CO, NM, AK, OR, NC, and NH, leaving them two shy (w/Lieberman) of 60.

One, of course, wonders what Reid is going to do with Lieberman then.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

I predict Dems gain VA, CO, NM, AK, OR, NC, and NH, leaving them two shy (w/Lieberman) of 60.

One, of course, wonders what Reid is going to do with Lieberman then.

He will lose his committee chair, but I don't think they'll boot him from the caucus.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


He will lose his committee chair, but I don't think they'll boot him from the caucus.

He could boot himself from the caucus, but I doubt he will - who wants to leave the majority? More likely, he may try to hold his vote over Reid's head should the dems get to 60.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by The Emperor Fabulous
He could boot himself from the caucus, but I doubt he will - who wants to leave the majority? More likely, he may try to hold his vote over Reid's head should the dems get to 60.

If the Dems are short 2-3 votes of 60 without Lieberman, he really won't have much to hold over Reid. And the Democrats are VERY mad at hims for supporting McCain. I don't see any way he keeps his chairmanship.

Lieberman has already been engaged in weaseling to walk it back from his McCain love. He's seen the writing on the wall and knows he's on the brink of irrelevance in the Senate, so he's been out there talking about how much he respects Obama, etc.

He's such a douche.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

I have to confess, I don't know which I want to see more: a filibuster-proof Dem majority or Lieberman humiliated.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
I have to confess, I don't know which I want to see more: a filibuster-proof Dem majority or Lieberman humiliated.

If we're lucky, we'll get both.