The Last Election Thread

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Well, as Boris pointed out, it's 8 points, not 6. But also, the earlier spreads had larger numbers of undecideds included. My speculation, based on absolutely nothing except my gut, is that undecideds will break for McCain about 2-to-1; if that's so, any poll that had a large number of undecided voters included should narrow in favor of McCain.

Another thing to point out is that in order for McCain to win Pennsylvania, Obama would have to underperform Kerry in the cities and suburban areas by a significant margin. Anyone who think that's going to happen is indeed deluded.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Winston
Go McCain!!

Once the results are in, you, Ben Kenobi and I will be laughing all the way to the White House / church / tobacconist.

Please, please, PLEASE be around tonight.

[FrostyBoy]

Even if McCain secured all of the remaining states, he.. in the words of Singaporeans... cannot make it.

But for some reason, it's still scary to think that a decent president could be this close to a reality.

[RGBVideo]

well, looking at the polling data, mccain needs to outperform his polling numbers by around 4 percentage points nationwide in order to win electoral college

given that the democratic base is excited (--> higher turnout leading to more votes than polls predict) and the republican base is depressed (--> lower turnout leading to less votes than polls predict), the opposite seems likely

mccain's campaign iniatives have been extremely uninspiring during the past few weeks considering he's running a national campaign in a nation of 300 million people

i presume he's praying for bradley effect to take hold and was thus campaigning in places like Maine a few weeks ago, but the empirical evidence of this year (the democratic primary) doesn't show any indication of that happening.

i think obama will win the popular vote with around 54%/45%, and electoral vote with around 360/178.

again the guy with the weakest cv wins. oh well. here's to hoping that two of your most corrupt senators, stevens and coleman, are voted out this year

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by VJ
well, looking at the polling data, mccain needs to outperform his polling numbers by around 4 percentage points nationwide in order to win electoral college

No.

[RGBVideo]

weren't i supposed to be on your ignore list?

[KrazyHorse]

Right now my ignore list is empty. I might have let you off.

[Donegeal]

Well, ****!

I honestly didn't know who I was going to vote for even while walking up to the poll. That has never happened to me before.

I did the dirty deed. I voted for Obama, but I'm VERY concerned about it.

I am very worried that he'll want to "talk" if something happens. Something like another major terrorist attack or an aggressive invasion of another country. He better not want to hear them say "Oh, so sorry. Please forgive us." and then do nothing about it. Kick first, then see what they have to say.

The ONLY reason why I voted for him, was because of Powell; and he had better keep his promise that he will give him a place in his cabnet.

[RGBVideo]

Well then.

Let's take http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ as source.

The averages of state-wide polls (discounting Zogby, which has a bad track record in predicting results) released during the last week or so show that Obama is leading with around ≤ 4 percentage points in the following states:

CO (4)
VA (4)
NV (4)
OH (3)
NC (1)
FL (1)

Ergo, if McCain gains around 4 percentage points or more nationally, he ends up with > 270 EVs.

What's wrong with this logic?

[Darius871]

Originally posted by VJ
Well then.

Let's take http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ as source.

The averages of state-wide polls (discounting Zogby, which has a bad track record in predicting results) released during the last week or so show that Obama is leading with around ≤ 4 percentage points in the following states:

CO (4)
VA (4)
NV (4)
OH (3)
NC (1)
FL (1)

Ergo, if McCain gains around 4 percentage points or more nationally, he ends up with > 270 EVs.

What's wrong with this logic?

I'm not sure if that state polling data's accurate, but the map math would technically work if it is:

[KrazyHorse]

a) Your numbers are not those of 538. That site has the prediction of margin of 5 in CO, 6 in VA (and snapsot polling averages slightly greater than this)

b) The national popular vote numbers will tend to move more than the close state poll numbers. Most of the movement will come from states whose result is a foregone conclusion and whose turnout is therefore unpredictable

Since McCain needs to win ALL states in which he within 6 (and there are no other states within reach....despite dreams of winning PA) he must move the baseline MORE than 6, in general.

[KrazyHorse]

By the way, from my estimates that is by far the most likely McCain map.

I agree what he needs to do in terms of states, but think you are underestimating the national movement he needs to accomplish this.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Donegeal
The ONLY reason why I voted for him, was because of Powell; and he had better keep his promise that he will give him a place in his cabnet.

Obama NEVER promised that he'd put Powell in his cabinet. He said he'd listen to his advice.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Donegeal
I am very worried that he'll want to "talk" if something happens.

I truly doubt that any recent major candidate for President would not, for instance, have invaded Afghanistan almost immediately following Sept. 11.

There was very little public debate in Canada (far more reticent to use force as a country than your candidates are) regarding our obligation to go into Afghanistan with you, and we were not even the ones attacked. There is much more debate now as to whether to pull out or not (for the record I would like our boys to stay there as long as it takes).

He would probably not have invaded Iraq, but hopefully you agree that this would have been a good idea. I think that there is far too much concern in the US that a lack of aggressive tone means a lack of will.

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
b) The national popular vote numbers will tend to move more than the close state poll numbers. Most of the movement will come from states whose result is a foregone conclusion and whose turnout is therefore unpredictable

uhhhh

if we make the theoretical hypothesis that all states move 4%, then a randomly picked invididual state does indeed move 4%. is this what you are disputing? if not, what is?

a) Your numbers are not those of 538. That site has the prediction of margin of 5 in CO, 6 in VA (and snapsot polling averages slightly greater than this)

I used the direct poll sources offered on the right column of the page and calculated the avg on my head.

so yeah, "around" 4%