The Last Election Thread

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Mrs Snuggles
It's Minnesota, not Arizona, but I'd like to see the brainless twit Michele Bachmann ousted as well.

That said, Elwyn Tinklenberg? That hardly sounds like a real person's name.

I at first thought it was Tinkleberg, which made me giggle.

[Ramo]

Originally posted by Mrs Snuggles
It's Minnesota, not Arizona, but I'd like to see the brainless twit Michele Bachmann ousted as well.

That said, Elwyn Tinklenberg? That hardly sounds like a real person's name.

'Course, if you shorten it to El Tinklenberg (as, I think, is his preference) it goes from a LOTR fanatic to Mexican wrestling and/or porn. A pretty versatile name, all things considered...

[Rufus T. Firefly]

My top-5 wish list for election day:

1. Obama beats McCain
2. Franken beats Coleman in MN
3. Tinklenberg beats Bachmann in MN
4. Merkely beats Smith in OR
5. F*cking, F*CKING Mitch McConnell goes down. I can't even remember who's running against him, but I don't care. I just want that bastard gone. I know it's a long shot, but a boy can dream.

[KrazyHorse]

Re: Re: The Last Election Thread

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
If they call Virginia for Obama, it's probably over

Probably? Kerry states+IA+VA = 272

[KrazyHorse]

Kerry states + IA has Obama at 259. In none of those states does Obama lead by less than 10 points. Forget ****ing PA. O's up by 12 or so.

VA is his best shot to win it all with 13 EV and Obama up by 8. Or he can pull the CO (9 EV, Obama up by ~6) plus NM (5 EV, Obama up by ~9) combo. If Obama wins NV he's almost certainly also won CO and NM, so it's not important. Meanwhile, if he takes one of the tighter states (OH, FL, MO, NC, IN) it's a blowout.

The only reason to stay up is if McCain takes VA by some miracle.

[KrazyHorse]

The other way to put it is that to win, McCain has to win every state in which polling has him down by 8 or less. This would give him a 274-264 win, and is also known as the Dubya2000 special.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
My top-5 wish list for election day:

1. Obama beats McCain
2. Franken beats Coleman in MN
3. Tinklenberg beats Bachmann in MN
4. Merkely beats Smith in OR
5. F*cking, F*CKING Mitch McConnell goes down. I can't even remember who's running against him, but I don't care. I just want that bastard gone. I know it's a long shot, but a boy can dream.

1 & 4 are very likely (Merkley was up 7 pts in the latest poll, 49-42).

2 is more probable than not, since Franken has been polling ahead of Coleman consistently--if by a small margin--for weeks now. He'll also have Obama's coattails in state that will go blue by a wide margin.

3 looks good, as recent polls showed Tinklenberg ahead thanks to Bachmann's McCarthyism on Hardball.

5 is about 50/50. Lunsford has done a good job, but KY is a pretty red state and I don't think Obama will help him much here. Personally, I'd rather see Chambliss in GA go down than McConnell.

[Lancer]

BBC just said that most people who say they are undecided are actually McCain voters who don't want to say so. Dumb, but hey. I wonder too how many who want to be seen as cool and with it and saying they'll vote Obama are actually McCain voters.

[Zkribbler]

LINK: Peruvian shamen back Obama

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Lancer
BBC just said that most people who say they are undecided are actually McCain voters who don't want to say so. Dumb, but hey. I wonder too how many who want to be seen as cool and with it and saying they'll vote Obama are actually McCain voters.

I'd be curious to see where the BBC pulled that from, because it sounds like it's from somebody's ass.
The polling says differently:

Kohut's conclusion, as reported this morning on the Politico, was almost identical: "undecided voters [are] likely to split about equally between McCain and Obama." Which means that if Kohut and Franklin are correct Obama will beat McCain 52 percent to 46 percent on Nov.4--unless McCain can begin to pry some support away from his opponent. As Kohut put it, "there is likely no hidden life raft in the undecided vote for John McCain."

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/30/is-mccain-on-the-comeback-trail.aspx

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Re: Re: Re: The Last Election Thread

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Probably? Kerry states+IA+VA = 272

Right you are. The VA+1 formula in my head is a remnant of the time when Obama's lead in NH looked shaky; I keep forgetting that it now looks like a lock.

So, yeah, Lancer, KH is right: if they call VA for Obama, the show's over.

[Lancer]

Good to know, thanks guys.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Mrs Snuggles

And you, GePap, for going to the same school as I did...

We're closet nuclear proliferationists, because the University helped make the first atomic bombs.

The horror! We're actually responsible for Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Three Mile, and whatever city gets nuked by imaginary Islamist terrorists!

Oh, and we're responsible for Pinochet.

And the **** John Ashcroft pulled.

This, on top of being anti-Israel, thanks to the likes of Mearsheimer and Khalidi.

Gepap is a fellow Maroon???? How did I not know this?

[Zkribbler]

BTW: CNN is now showing North Dakota and Montana within the margin of error.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
BTW: CNN is now showing North Dakota and Montana within the margin of error.

Actually, the three polls conducted in ND in October show Obama either tied with or ahead of McCain, but between the MoE and teh high number of undecideds, you can't really read much into that.