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Originally posted by Lancer
But if Obama wins Virginia and McCain wins Pensy, any way McCain wins then?
But if Obama wins Virginia and McCain wins Pensy, any way McCain wins then?
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He would most certainly need Florida then out of the early return states.*"Winning is still the goal, and we cannot win if we lose (gawd, that was brilliant - you can quote me on that if you want. And con - I don't want to see that in your sig."- Beta -
Originally posted by Lancer
But if Obama wins Virginia and McCain wins Pensy, any way McCain wins then?
If Obama wins VA but McCain wins PA, McCain still has to win battlegrounds OH, FL, NC, MO, IN, and NV to win the election. Assuming Obama wins IA, NM and CO, he would only have to pick off one of those 6 states to win even if McCain somehow takes PA.Obama can feasibly win without Pennsylvania, if he wins all Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, VA and NV. That's 270-268 for Obama. His odds look very good in all five of those states.Tutto nel mondo è burlaComment
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If you want to visualize:
So if McCain wins PA, he's still got to find 86 EVs to get to 270. Obama needs only 5.
EDIT: Ok, the embed doesn't show the scenario I created at the LA Times website. Curses!Last edited by Boris Godunov; October 30, 2008, 16:06.Tutto nel mondo è burlaComment
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Oregon is up for grabs? In my dreams.Long time member @ Apolyton
Civilization player since the dawn of timeComment
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The Polls, 4 Days To Go
Where's that tightening people are talking about? I mean, its ridiculous how Obama is running away with the EV count. It only seems like its tightening because people in states that were already going for McCain are coming home for McCain.I just can't help but laugh at those of you who think McCain will get +300 EVs.
He would have to keep (stats are from Pollster.net):
Updated 10/30/08 [10/13/08] (Original 9/30/08)
NEW MEXICO - O +7.2 [O +6.2] (O +6.2)
IOWA - O +11.7 [O +11.4] (O +9.8)
FLORIDA - O +2.6 [O +5.6] (M +2.1)
OHIO - O +6.3 [O +4.2] (M +2.9)
COLORADO - O +6.5 [O +6.3] (O +3)
INDIANA - M +0.5 [M +2.5] (M +2.5)
NORTH CAROLINA - O +2.5 [O +0.7] (M +1.2)
VIRGINIA - O +7.8 [O +3.1] (M +0.4)
NEVADA - O +5.9 [O +2.1] (M +1.8)
Then, he'd have to take:
MINNESOTA - O +11.3 [O +4.7] (O +3.2)
NEW HAMPSHIRE - O +11 [O +5.3] (Tie)
or
PENNSYLVANIA - O +10.7 [O +9.8] (O +3.3)
or
MICHIGAN - O +16.7 [O +6.6] (O +4.3)
UPDATE: Plus, these new "swing" states (some for future trend lines):
GEORGIA - M +2.6 [M +7.5]
MISSOURI - O +1.7 [M +1.7]
MONTANA - M +3.4 [M +7.7]
NORTH DAKOTA - O +3.6 [M +11.1] LOOK AT THAT!
And maybe?
ARIZONA - M +6.1
MISSISSIPPI - M +8
SOUTH DAKOTA - M +7.5
He could still get +300 and lose NM and IA if he picked up NH AND two other Kerry states. But come on, its like a 15% chance Obama won't keep all the Kerry states and not pick up Iowa, the state that made his campaign.
McCain could win, but he won't get over 300."I predict your ignore will rival Ben's" - Ecofarm
^ The Poly equivalent of:
"I hope you can see this 'cause I'm [flipping you off] as hard as I can" - Ignignokt the MooniniteComment
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No, it's an outdated scenario. The embed isn't working right.Originally posted by Lancer
Oregon is up for grabs? In my dreams.
The last OR poll had Obama +19.
Tutto nel mondo è burlaComment
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Here's Bill-O's Map of tossups
Oh Noes! Obama's behind!"I predict your ignore will rival Ben's" - Ecofarm
^ The Poly equivalent of:
"I hope you can see this 'cause I'm [flipping you off] as hard as I can" - Ignignokt the MooniniteComment
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Hey, why isn't anyone talking about the McCain camps new manufactured "issue," that Obama was friendly with Rashid Khalidi? I mean, this is one that strikes home for me, having met professor Khalidi myself...I guess I can be controversial as well
On a side note, the magnificent and awesome stupidy of this latest line of attack truly staggers me...If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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I'm amused at how Khalidi's pretty much saying, "WTF? Why should I have to defend Obama for my views?"B♭3Comment
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It doesn't matter what happened; the point is I saw the word Obama in the same sentence as some guy with a terrst-sounding name and that worries me.
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You are.Originally posted by GePap
Hey, why isn't anyone talking about the McCain camps new manufactured "issue," that Obama was friendly with Rashid Khalidi? I mean, this is one that strikes home for me, having met professor Khalidi myself...I guess I can be controversial as well
I would vote against you for president
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McCain is actually adding steroids to this argument.Originally posted by GePap
Hey, why isn't anyone talking about the McCain camps new manufactured "issue," that Obama was friendly with Rashid Khalidi? I mean, this is one that strikes home for me, having met professor Khalidi myself...I guess I can be controversial as well
On a side note, the magnificent and awesome stupidy of this latest line of attack truly staggers me...
The L.A. Times, because of a confidentiality agreement, won't produce videotapes of a function that both Obama and Khalidi attended. McCain is claiming that this is a double standard because if he'd had been at a function with a right-wing extremist, the Times would release that video tape.
It's very surreal to hear a double-standard argument made between an event which took place and one that McCain just make up.
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Well, to be fair, Khalidi is pro-Palestinian. And he does pal around with Palestinians.B♭3Comment
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