Krazyhorse US election bet

[Lul Thyme]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Anyone else want to call me a coward for declining to accept a bet that they think is crazy in KH's favour?

And you call me a hypocrite.

The whole point of a bet is that people disagree on what the real odds of something are.

People that think the 5:1 bet is crazy in his favour are simply stating something about what they think the real odds are.

This would only make them hypocrites if they also stated that they think the odds of McCain winning are much higher than this (ring any bells?).

They don't really want you to take the bet to KH, they are just (correctly) pointing out that by refusing to do so, you are also stating something about what YOU think the real odds are.

Basically, they are saying they are on KH's side (up to a margin of error) of this particular bet and, by refusing to take it, you are saying you agree with them and KH (again up to a margin of error), which contradicts your earlier claimed believed odds.

Who the hypocrite is in this case is rather clear.

I'm not advocating you to take the bet or calling you a coward, by the way. I'm simply saying that your refusal to take this 5:1 bet shows that either you consider these odds not very advantageous to you (which, as I said earlier, contradicts what you've said before) or you're just not into betting for money.

[Lazerus]

This is one angry thread

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by notyoueither


I'll take that.

I'd put $5 on McCain at 10 to 1.

That is what I view the odds to be, that means I won't bet on that.

JM

[RGBVideo]

So now we know what the honest perceptions of these two posters are about the results of the next presidential election.

KH thinks that the victory of Obama is at least 5 times more probable than the victory of McCain.

Ben Kenobi thinks the victory of Obama is a bit less than 20 times more probable than the victory of McCain.

gj on being honest, BK

[Impaler[WrG]]

An alternative way of doing these bets would be to bet dollar-for-dollar on an Electoral College vote spread as in done for sports scores. Thus both parties expose themselves to the same risk rather then the enormous $2000 to win $100 silliness.

The current 538 prediction is 348.4 for Obama so that natural lets you split between 348/349, if Obama get 348 or fewer ECV the McCain better wins, 349 or more and the Obama voter wins.

[Boris Godunov]

It's a moot point, KH isn't going to bet. And I don't think anyone could blame him, given BK's behavior.

I have learned the following, however:

1. BK thinks he's a master negotiator because instead of winning an easy (according to his faith in McCain's impending victory) $100 or even $2,000, he's now going to win $0.
2. $2000 is his price for abandoning a very important principle
3. If someone offers you initial terms, you can later misrepresent those terms based on things you've made up in your head and somehow not be lying your ass off.

[Jon Miller]

3. isn't a general thing though, it is true of BK though

JM

[Kuciwalker]

I don't understand why anyone doesn't have Ben on ignore.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
I don't understand why anyone doesn't have Ben on ignore.

Can't speak for others, but DC's art museums are too conservative for my tastes; I have to come here for some quality surrealism.

[Ben Kenobi]

1. BK thinks he's a master negotiator because instead of winning an easy (according to his faith in McCain's impending victory) $100 or even $2,000, he's now going to win $0.

You are assuming that it was my desire to wager in the first place.

2. $2000 is his price for abandoning a very important principle

End result is no bet. I was pretty certain KH would walk away from his challenge, and that's the best outcome in my opinion.

3. If someone offers you initial terms, you can later misrepresent those terms based on things you've made up in your head and somehow not be lying your ass off.

I don't see you taking the bet at 5-1, so why would you expect me to?

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

I don't see you taking the bet at 5-1, so why would you expect me to?

Because you claimed to think that McCain will win.

We all think that he will lose.

So it makes sense for you to bet on 5-1, but not us.

A 6 yearold could understand this.

JM

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm not advocating you to take the bet or calling you a coward, by the way. I'm simply saying that your refusal to take this 5:1 bet shows that either you consider these odds not very advantageous to you (which, as I said earlier, contradicts what you've said before) or you're just not into betting for money.

YOUR WINNAR!!!

[tinyp3nis]

Not into betting money, but into getting money from others. How about somebody here just sends you some?

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm into getting money from others if they go out of their way to challenge me.

You see me insulting KH and challenging him to a bet?

[Ben Kenobi]

Really? Go haggle at a flea market and see how that goes.

I've never gone into a flea market where someone challenges me to a money bet.

I don't know what kind of flea markets you go to though, so I'm sure it's entirely possible.