Krazyhorse US election bet

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Then do so. Right now. Tell KH you will take that bet at 5-1.

Everybody who's willing to throw out calling me a coward, I expect to see you take up KH's bid at 5 to 1 right now.

We would be on KH's side of the bet...

That is because we agree with his position (Obama is going to win big) and not yours (McCain is going to need to win big).

You really need to use your mind more.

JM

[Ben Kenobi]

Responding with an absurd 20:1 bet in your own favor isn't accepting a challenge, it's just showing you're chicken.

No, it was me trying to see how confident KH was in an Obama victory, and how deep the obama-aid runs here.

I've since proven that nobody on all of Apolyton believes that the odds are 95-5.

[Ben Kenobi]

We would be on KH's side of the bet...

Anyone else want to call me a coward for declining to accept a bet that they think is crazy in KH's favour?

And you call me a hypocrite.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Then do so. Right now. Tell KH you will take that bet at 5-1.

Everybody who's willing to throw out calling me a coward, I expect to see you take up KH's bid at 5 to 1 right now.

Their beliefs are not the same as your beliefs, Ben. Expected return is dependent on what your probability model tells you about the outcome.

They shouldn't offer to take me up because their probability model tells them that Obama is a significant favourite to win. You claim to believe differently, therefore as a rational agent you should take me up based on the strength of that belief.

I guess that's why they call it "revealed opinions", huh....

[Ben Kenobi]

The difference is that while I believe you had little chance of winning, YOU believe (or I should say "claim to believe") that your expected return is much better than that.

But how much better is the expected return? That's the thousand dollar question.

The fact that you didn't take that offer or my follow-up offer of 5-1 says mountains about the strength of your beliefs.

About what? Money, or McCain?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Anyone else want to call me a coward for declining to accept a bet that they think is crazy in KH's favour?

And you call me a hypocrite.

Are you so stupid as to not see that agents with different probability models act differently given the same offer?

You are the only one here who is acting inconsistently with his stated opinions on the matter.

Everybody else here thinks Obama is a shoo-in. Do you agree with them? If so, then you are acting rationally. However, you are a liar. If you disagree then you are acting irrationally.

[EPW]

to this thread

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Hands up how many would have taken the bet at KH's initial bidding. Bueller, Bueller?

Of you offer me a $100 1:1 bet on the election, Obama vs. McCain, I will certainly take it, right here and right now.

Anyone who believed McCain was sure to win, as you do, wouldn't have a problem accepting such a bet.

In the real world challenges don't come out of the blue like that. I've not known any negotiation begin that way.

Really? Go haggle at a flea market and see how that goes.

I'd rather see 100 and 2000.

Of course you would. But you're not going to get it, because it's unreasonable. But KH is offering you a chance to win $2000 at 1:1 odds. Since you're so sure McCain will win, that is still an easy $2,000 for you. You'd be nuts not to take it, if you're so sure he'll win.

At the end of the day I have a 95 percent chance of losing 100 bucks, while he has a 5 percent chance of losing 2000.

But you don't really think this way. You think the odds are in your favor. So accept his bet, or else be a coward.

[Lancer]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Enough with the name calling, please. You two work out the bet over PM if you're going to call names... otherwise i'll have to go call ming, and since it's friday he's probably drunk enough for me to be able to convince him to ban you for a few months

[KrazyHorse]

It's too late. I don't want to be engaged in a bet with somebody as dishonest and dishonourable as Ben. I have closed the availability on all wagers offered to him.

[Ben Kenobi]

Expected return is dependent on what your probability model tells you about the outcome.

Very, very little. For me it depends more on pricing. If something is overrated that's one thing. Underrated is another. I actually did better against the spread then I did straight up in the last pool.

I think Obama is overrated, but that's counterbalanced with how I see money. Is it worth me risking money I already have to bet against Obama? No, not really.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Very, very little. For me it depends more on pricing. If something is overrated that's one thing. Underrated is another. I actually did better against the spread then I did straight up in the last pool.

I think Obama is overrated, but that's counterbalanced with how I see money. Is it worth me risking money I already have to bet against Obama? No, not really.

Are you just entering words at random into your keyboard now?

[LotC]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

First off, I've always, until now, made the point that I never bet money. Ever.

That's quite obvious.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Jon Miller
Well, but now we know what Ben considers the odds. He considers the odds 20:1.

I don't even consider the odds 20:1, I would go more at 10:1.

JM

I'll take that.

I'd put $5 on McCain at 10 to 1.

[notyoueither]

Can I run a book without getting arrested or banned?