Krazyhorse US election bet

[Ben Kenobi]

In other words, you're giving yourself license to be a total coward. Understood.

If you notice, I've never called KH a coward in this whole exchange, and yet someone who isn't involved in this bet is trying to egg me on?

Go take it at 5-1 if you are so confident. No skin off my nose.

If someone offers a bet and you're not confident in winning, despite public blustering to the contrary, all you have to do is respond with a ridiculous counteroffer that no one would accept.

First off, I've always, until now, made the point that I never bet money. Ever. I decided I'd jump in and see how confident KH was in his blustering and decided I would accept the challenge.

For me to sacrifice a very important principle to jump in the ring, is worth a considerable amount. KH clearly doesn't know me very well.

I think you've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that, in truth, you really don't have that much confidence that McCain will win the election.

My previous comment went over your head, and I'm sure this one will too. My bid has very little to do with my perception on the chances of McCain to win the election, and everything to do with what I feel is the value of a dollar.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
The term is risk adverse.

Same thing.

If you feel this is a moneymaking operation at 5-1 odds, go right ahead and jump in.

I wouldn't bet at 20:1, but this is you we're talking about.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
If his initial challenge was fair based on my own perception of things, why is my response unfair?

His initial offer had equal risk and equal potential reward for both of you. That's plenty fair.

He then offered you more than fair odds at 5:1. Your risk is much lower, but you can still net a substantial profit. His risk/reward goes the opposite direction, but he's still willing to take it, meaning he's offering you MORE than fair terms now.

I don't think it's very fair if you are the one challenged out of the blue. That's why the challenged gets to name the terms.

I can't wait to see you actually enter real negotiations.

In BK's world, the challengee always gets to dictate terms, and that equals negotiation. Got it.

I'm still out 100 bucks if McCain loses. I don't believe 5-1 gives him enough risk exposure, and I know he doesn't which is why he made that offer instead of some intermediate number like 10 or 15-1.

His offer to you on the 5:1 was you put up $20, while he puts up $100. That's significant risk exposure for a return of only 1/5 of the money he's putting down.

20:1 risk exposure is simply absurd, and you know it, and you're desperately clinging to it to weasel out of betting.

Logically it was a fair bet. It matches his perception of the election, even if it places him at a disadvantage betting because he doesn't stand to win anything at all.

No bet can be considered fair by the person betting if they have an enormous risk vs. virtually no gain. Are you really this dumb?

[Ben Kenobi]

Goliath fought 1:1.

David got to choose his weapon.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
First off, I've always, until now, made the point that I never bet money. Ever. I decided I'd jump in and see how confident KH was in his blustering and decided I would accept the challenge.

What blustering would that be, you cowardly, hypocritical liar?

[Jon Miller]

Many of us would take the 5:1 odds (where we bet 100, and got 20) if they were offered to us. However, the people who think that McCain has the best odds of winning aren't offering those odds (namely, yourself).

That suggests that the people who think that McCain has the best chance of winning think he has worse than 5:1 odds.

JM

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


David got to choose his weapon.

So did Goliath

JM

[KrazyHorse]

The blustering where I offered you 1-1 odds on 100$ or the blustering where I offered you 5-1 odds? How about the blustering where I offered you 1-1 odds on 2000$?

You've revealed yourself to be a coward, a liar and a hypocrite. Congratulations. Guess this didn't quite turn out how you'd expected, huh?

[Ben Kenobi]

His initial offer had equal risk and equal potential reward for both of you. That's plenty fair.

Hands up how many would have taken the bet at KH's initial bidding. Bueller, Bueller?

He then offered you more than fair odds at 5:1. Your risk is much lower, but you can still net a substantial profit. His risk/reward goes the opposite direction, but he's still willing to take it, meaning he's offering you MORE than fair terms now.

I believe his exact quote was 'raping you at 5-1'.

I can't wait to see you actually enter real negotiations.

In the real world challenges don't come out of the blue like that. I've not known any negotiation begin that way.

His offer to you on the 5:1 was you put up $20, while he puts up $100. That's significant risk exposure for a return of only 1/5 of the money he's putting down.

I'd rather see 100 and 2000.

20:1 risk exposure is simply absurd, and you know it, and you're desperately clinging to it to weasel out of betting.

At the end of the day I have a 95 percent chance of losing 100 bucks, while he has a 5 percent chance of losing 2000.

Assuming those are the correct odds, 5-1 is a ridiculous counter offer.

No bet can be considered fair by the person betting if they have an enormous risk vs. virtually no gain. Are you really this dumb?

How is this different from his initial bid, which by his reckoning, I had a win of 5 cents on the dollar?

[KrazyHorse]

Since you've demonstrated no honour whatsoever, Ben, I am hereby closing the availability on all wagers discussed with you tonight.

By the way, that's another standard negotiating practice. Offers have a limited time to expiry. You missed your window. Not that you ever had any intention of attempting to reach a mutually acceptable compromise, you slimy weasel.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
If you notice, I've never called KH a coward in this whole exchange, and yet someone who isn't involved in this bet is trying to egg me on?

Go take it at 5-1 if you are so confident. No skin off my nose.

I'm not trying to egg you on so much as keep you honest. You've been lying, and you're being called on it.

First off, I've always, until now, made the point that I never bet money. Ever. I decided I'd jump in and see how confident KH was in his blustering and decided I would accept the challenge.

Great, so his challenge was $100 at 1:1. If you're accepting his challenge, you're agreeing to those terms. Responding with an absurd 20:1 bet in your own favor isn't accepting a challenge, it's just showing you're chicken.

For me to sacrifice a very important principle to jump in the ring, is worth a considerable amount. KH clearly doesn't know me very well.

Well, at least it's good to see you acknowleding you'll sell out a "very important principle" for $2,000.

So if if this is the case, you should be accepting the 1:1 $2,000 bet from KH. The reward for your sacrifice of principle is the same, and since you're so sure McCain will win anyway, you clearly don't think it's a risk.

My previous comment went over your head, and I'm sure this one will too. My bid has very little to do with my perception on the chances of McCain to win the election, and everything to do with what I feel is the value of a dollar.

And if you really feel that way, and you're supremely confident that McCain will win, then you have no reason to decline the 1:1 $2,000 bet offer. Either way, you (according to your own belief) will be certain to win $2,000.

[Ben Kenobi]

Many of us would take the 5:1 odds (where we bet 100, and got 20) if they were offered to us.

Then do so. Right now. Tell KH you will take that bet at 5-1.

Everybody who's willing to throw out calling me a coward, I expect to see you take up KH's bid at 5 to 1 right now.

[Jon Miller]

Well, but now we know what Ben considers the odds. He considers the odds 20:1.

I don't even consider the odds 20:1, I would go more at 10:1.

JM

[KrazyHorse]

How is this different from his initial bid, which by his reckoning, I had a win of 5 cents on the dollar?

The difference is that while I believe you had little chance of winning, YOU believe (or I should say "claim to believe") that your expected return is much better than that.

The fact that you didn't take that offer or my follow-up offer of 5-1 says mountains about the strength of your beliefs.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Jon Miller
Well, but now we know what Ben considers the odds. He considers the odds 20:1

That is my conclusion too.