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So, stand up for your convictions, since not only did I accept your silly challenge, I made the correct bid.
If you'd made the correct bid I would have accepted it. You made a bid which I don't see significant upside to, but do see risk. I have rejected that bid and counteroffered. Everybody who reads this sequence can see that you're too afraid to go higher than 20-1. You pansy.
BK you don't seem to understand how betting works. As with any exchange both parties need to perceive that they are receiving more value then they are losings. ALL bets are between people who perceive their opposite to be the sucker.
Agreed. That's why I bid 20-1 odds. Look at it this way, if McCain loses, I'm out 100 bucks. The price the other way has to be really high in order to make the bid make sense.
By definition he would have equal reason and no reason to take a bet on either of the odds he thinks are the true ones.
Bookies also don't go around issuing challenges to people. In this case KH gives up some negotiating room in order to get to pick his victim so to speak.
Scouse Git (2)La Fayette Adam SmithSolomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
"Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!
I do some work and figure out that KH is 95 percent certain that Obama is going to win.
I pitch to KH a bid which reflects the same initial stake, me putting up 100 dollars, and then reflecting what KH himself has stated that he thought was a fair bet.
Ben, as KH has abundantly pointed out, just because he thinks Obama is 95% likely to win the election mdoesn't mean that 20:1 odds in your favor could remotely be considered a fair bet. His risk exposure goes up significantly, while his return on the dollar diminishes considerably. That isn't fair.
He then decided that despite the fact he was the one issuing the challenge, that he wanted a bet that he felt he had a significant advantage and I'm the coward?
Significant advantage? He's offered you 5:1 odds. How does that give him a significant advantage? Your return on investment potential is far greater!
I made a fair offer that reflects KH's analysis of the situation. If he chooses to decline his own challenge, then that is his choice.
He challenged you to a 1:1 bet. Then offered a 5:1 compromise. This 20:1 nonsense was something you made up and he never offered. To continue to portray that has his challenge is simply lying.
Ben is too conservative to make money off of this. He believes McCain has a better than a 5% chance yet he can't make money off of it given the opportunity, because he's too conservative.
I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett Kavanaugh
Originally posted by Boris Godunov
To continue to portray that has his challenge is simply lying.
Yeah, I'd never thought of Ben as a bald-faced liar before. And given his putative strong Christian faith, I also think that he's a hypocrite. My opinion of him has gone through the floor. I'd always thought he was silly and ignorant. Now I think he's a dishonourable liar.
Ben, as KH has abundantly pointed out, just because he thinks Obama is 95% likely to win the election means that 20:1 odds in your favor could remotely be considered a fair bet. His risk exposure goes up significantly, while his return on the dollar diminishes considerably. That isn't fair.
If his initial challenge was fair based on my own perception of things, why is my response unfair?
I don't think it's very fair if you are the one challenged out of the blue. That's why the challenged gets to name the terms.
Significant advantage? He's offered you 5:1 odds. How does that give him a significant advantage? Your return on investment potential is far greater!
I'm still out 100 bucks if McCain loses. I don't believe 5-1 gives him enough risk exposure, and I know he doesn't which is why he made that offer instead of some intermediate number like 10 or 15-1.
He challenged you to a 1:1 bet. Then offered a 5:1 compromise. This 20:1 nonsense was something you made up and he never offered. To continue to portray that has his challenge is simply lying.
Logically it was a fair bet. It matches his perception of the election, even if it places him at a disadvantage betting because he doesn't stand to win anything at all.
Scouse Git (2)La Fayette Adam SmithSolomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
"Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!
Originally posted by Kidicious
Ben is too conservative to make money off of this. He believes McCain has a better than a 5% chance yet he can't make money off of it given the opportunity, because he's too conservative.
First insightful post by Kid on any financial subject.
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
If you issue the challenge, then you either accept the terms that the challenged puts out or you walk away.
In other words, you're giving yourself license to be a total coward. Understood.
If someone offers a bet and you're not confident in winning, despite public blustering to the contrary, all you have to do is respond with a ridiculous counteroffer that no one would accept. So when he walks away, you claim a little victory, right?
Your mind is disturbingly like Eric Cartman's in this regard.
I think you've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that, in truth, you really don't have that much confidence that McCain will win the election.
Jon Miller- I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.
Ben is too conservative to make money off of this. He believes McCain has a better than a 5% chance yet he can't make money off of it given the opportunity, because he's too conservative.
The term is risk adverse.
If you feel this is a moneymaking operation at 5-1 odds, go right ahead and jump in.
Scouse Git (2)La Fayette Adam SmithSolomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
"Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I don't think it's very fair if you are the one challenged out of the blue. That's why the challenged gets to name the terms.
The "challenged" as you put it is simply one side in a negotiation. I have made an offer and responded to your counter-offer with a counter-counter (5-1).
Since then you have lied, weaseled and in general acted with a total lack of principles.
If you feel this is a moneymaking operation at 5-1 odds, go right ahead and jump in.
No one but you and Winston give McCain better than 1:2 odds.
And I am pretty sure that Winston is just saying what he wishes to occur.
JM
Jon Miller- I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.
If you feel this is a moneymaking operation at 5-1 odds, go right ahead and jump in.
The term for being this "risk averse" is "coward". Either that or your revealed opinions are significantly different than your stated opinions. The term for that is "liar".
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