Krazyhorse US election bet

[Ben Kenobi]

A bet is a risky asset. There is a chance I could lose. My downside is quite large compared to yours, so in order to make this attractive to me you need to compensate me for my risk exposure.

Why? You challenged me not the other way around. I don't have to offer you anything more then fair odds, which I have done.

Notice that if you actually believe McCain's a coinflip then I'm offering you a MUCH bigger risk premium at 5-1 than I'm keeping for myself.

If you challenge someone, you accept the terms that the person who is challenged responds. Given that you explicitly stated that you thought my pricing matched your assessment of the situation, I don't see why you have a problem.

If you have an issue with risk premiums, then I suggest you do not challenge people.

Just because I think a bet's fair doesn't mean I want any part of it.

Then you shouldn't challenge people. Simple as that.

You obviously don't think those are very good odds for you, otherwise you'd take them.

I think I can do better then 5-1, which is why I pitched 20-1 to match your expectations. I already think those expectations are delusional, but why should I question them?

[KrazyHorse]

By the way, I'm now offering Ben 2000$ even money. I'll make that offer again. 2000$ even money. I take Obama winning Presidency, Ben takes McCain winning Presidency. If either candidate has to step down before election then bet is null and void. I will entrust my money in escrow to an individual who Ben and I can agree on.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Why? You challenged me not the other way around. I don't have to offer you anything more then fair odds, which I have done.

I challenged you to a bet at even money. You countered with a lowball offer. I countered again with 5-1 (on the same upside for you I'd offered initially).

You haven't moved in the last 2 pages. Instead, you have made blatantly false claims as to what I've said, and tried to talk your way out of going any higher than 20-1.

I've even gone so far as to offer 10% of my yearly earnings at even money (me taking Obama).

Grow a pair, you sniveling little thing.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
If you challenge someone, you accept the terms that the person who is challenged responds.

And you accuse me of not knowing how to negotiate.

So let me get this right Ben: If you challenge me to a bet at 1:1 odds, and I repond with an offer of 20:1 odds in my favor, you're obligated to accept that response?

Wow.

[Ben Kenobi]

Actually, I do, which is why my salary is significantly above the average for what my job pays in this market. The problem is that you don't have much experience with simple logic.

Then follow this.

KH offers me a 100 dollar straight up bid.

I do some work and figure out that KH is 95 percent certain that Obama is going to win.

I pitch to KH a bid which reflects the same initial stake, me putting up 100 dollars, and then reflecting what KH himself has stated that he thought was a fair bet.

I don't see what the issue is here. I met his terms in full, of 100 dollars, and I gave him a fair bet.

He then decided that despite the fact he was the one issuing the challenge, that he wanted a bet that he felt he had a significant advantage and I'm the coward?

I made a fair offer that reflects KH's analysis of the situation. If he chooses to decline his own challenge, then that is his choice.

[Dinner]

On the up side after the latest meta polls McCain has gone from a 3.5% chance of winning to a 5.1% chance of winning!

WOW! The election is getting closer! Oh, BTW this morning even Indiana switched blue. McCain just cannot win without Pennsylvania and he's down there by 15 points in the most current meta polls with less then two weeks to go. As long as people show up to vote he's dead.

[Jon Miller]

I don't understand why BK is thinking that KH would want 20:1 odds? I mean, there is no point in betting if you think the odds are even.

I would only take 20:1 odds if I was absolutely sure without a doubt that I would win (Better than 99%).

BK, if you think the odds are 1:1, then his offer of 5:1 is a steal.

JM

[KrazyHorse]

You don't have to offer me ****. But you're either a coward or you don't actually believe that McCain's chances are anywhere near even money.

Which of those doors would you like, Ben?

[Impaler[WrG]]

My mother never raised stupid children.
Why would I give KH odds that to him would be a sucker bet?
I'll give KH exactly what he thinks are the odds for this election, since he was the one who challenged me.

BK you don't seem to understand how betting works. As with any exchange both parties need to perceive that they are receiving more value then they are losings. ALL bets are between people who perceive their opposite to be the sucker.

If KH was a bookie then he would take bets at the 20:1 odds he thinks represents the real probability of the election, ideally losings bets would cover winning bets and he would make money only on the 5-10% off the top cut. His customers would take bets on either side of his spread based on their belief that the spread is wrong and they stand to gain if they are correct. By definition he would have equal reason and no reason to take a bet on either of the odds he thinks are the true ones.

[Ben Kenobi]

So let me get this right Ben: If you challenge me to a bet at 1:1 odds, and I repond with an offer of 20:1 odds in my favor, you're obligated to accept that response?

If you issue the challenge, then you either accept the terms that the challenged puts out or you walk away.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I do some work and figure out that KH is 95 percent certain that Obama is going to win.

No, you didn't do ****. You guessed, and I was kind enough to tell you what I really thought.

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


If you issue the challenge, then you either accept the terms that the challenged puts out or you walk away.

The challenger adjusts the odds by a factor of 20?

JM

[Ben Kenobi]

No, you didn't do ****. You guessed, and I was kind enough to tell you what I really thought.

So, stand up for your convictions, since not only did I accept your silly challenge, I made the correct bid.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov




And you accuse me of not knowing how to negotiate.

So let me get this right Ben: If you challenge me to a bet at 1:1 odds, and I repond with an offer of 20:1 odds in my favor, you're obligated to accept that response?

Wow.

That's how it works wherever Ben lives, apparently.

[Ben Kenobi]

The challenger adjusts the odds by a factor of 20?

Sure. Think of David and Goliath. In KH's mind he is a freaking Goliath and I'm David.

Why shouldn't I play to his own self-image?