Krazyhorse US election bet

[Ben Kenobi]

So why not take up the 5:1 odds that KH is really offering? If you're so confident, then it's easy money. If your mother really didn't raise you stupid, then you'd believe taking a surefire bet that would win you $80 is better than no bet at all.

First good question in this whole thread.

If I can get 20-1 odds, since KH already admitted that's what he thinks the odds are in reality, why would I settle for something less?

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
No, not at all. I can make more money with that money doing other things, then I can to tie it up into a bet.

Oh yeah? Tell me how you can turn $20 into $100 in 11 days absent a bet. If you could do such a thing, you'd be filthy rich by now.

Why would I sink money into something that was a coinflip? I'd be an idiot. I'd only sink money into something that I saw myself as having a significant advantage.

Coinflip? Given all of your statements, surely you aren't suggesting you think the odds of McCain winning are just a coinflip? You've clearly stated you're very certain he will win. You even posted a ludicrous electoral map showing him winning states the Republicans haven't carried since 1984. So if you REALLY think his odds are that good, you shouldn't be hesitating to put any money down.

[Ben Kenobi]

Come on, be a man and admit that you've got more mouth than balls.

I was spot on in my pricing. I don't see what your issue is with my bid at 20:1 since it perfectly reflected how you saw the issue.

All you are doing is haggling now, because you want a better price.

Here's a clue. If you slap someone and they choose knives, you don't get to select swords.

[KrazyHorse]

By the way, if I think that the odds right now stand at 5% McCain victory (which I actually do) then my expected return on this bet is 14$.

Gee, I wonder who's demonstrated the strength of his convictions?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Actually, if BK and KH are serious, I'd suggest something simpler than odds: $50 per point difference in the popular vote, plus $5 per point difference in the electoral vote.

E.g., Obama wins 52-46 (with the other 2 points going to 3rd-party candidates) and 306-232, Ben owes KH $300 + $370 = $670.

Ben stands to make a tidy sum of money on that McCain landslide he's predicting.

[Boris Godunov]

[SIZE=1] Originally posted by Ben Kenobi [/SIZE
If I can get 20-1 odds

Aaaand your argument falls apart right there, as KH never offered, agreed to or indicated he would remotely accept 20:1 odds. So absent that, since you can get 5:1 odds which is (so you believe) an easy win of $80, why not just take it?

[Kontiki]

Can I take the 20:1 odds that Ben's mother did raise him stupid?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


First good question in this whole thread.

If I can get 20-1 odds, since KH already admitted that's what he thinks the odds are in reality, why would I settle for something less?

RISK PREMIUM.

A bet is a risky asset. There is a chance I could lose. My downside is quite large compared to yours, so in order to make this attractive to me you need to compensate me for my risk exposure. This is why I don't bet even money on coin flips.

Notice that if you actually believe McCain's a coinflip then I'm offering you a MUCH bigger risk premium at 5-1 than I'm keeping for myself.

Just because I think a bet's fair doesn't mean I want any part of it. I think I'm raping you at 5-1 against McCain. You obviously don't think those are very good odds for you, otherwise you'd take them.

Put up or shut up, Ben.

[Ben Kenobi]

Coinflip? Given all of your statements, surely you aren't suggesting you think the odds of McCain winning are just a coinflip?

You don't have much experience in negotiations do you, Boris.

So if you REALLY think his odds are that good, you shouldn't be hesitating to put any money down.

If you are selling something that you know a person is willing to pay 2 grand for, why would you charge them 500?

KH has indicated that he'd be willing to take a 2 grand bet.

I also find it intriguing that KH who insisted on 100 dollars right from the start immediately started talking those numbers down. If KH isn't willing to stand by his original challenge, then perhaps he shouldn't demand people abide by them.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kontiki
Can I take the 20:1 odds that Ben's mother did raise him stupid?

I'd like to double down on that.

[KrazyHorse]

KH has indicated that he'd be willing to take a 2 grand bet.

You are a liar.

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben stands to make a tidy sum of money on that McCain landslide he's predicting.

You are a very wise person, rufus.

[KrazyHorse]

I thought that Christians believed that lying was wrong. Seriously. Go back through my posts and find me one where I said that I wanted to put down 2000, or that I'd be willing to accept 20-1.

Now, as a matter of fact, if you'd like I'd be more than willing to put down 2000$ even money on Obama winning. By the way, that represents 10% of my annual salary.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
You don't have much experience in negotiations do you, Boris.

Actually, I do, which is why my salary is significantly above the average for what my job pays in this market. The problem is that you don't have much experience with simple logic.

If you are selling something that you know a person is willing to pay 2 grand for, why would you charge them 500?

KH has indicated that he'd be willing to take a 2 grand bet.

No, he didn't. Nobody, and I mean nobody, could honestly look at all of the postings on this bet nonsense and state that KH ever indicated he was willing to take a $2,000 bet.

I also find it intriguing that KH who insisted on 100 dollars right from the start immediately started talking those numbers down. If KH isn't willing to stand by his original challenge, then perhaps he shouldn't demand people abide by them.

No, his original challenge was $100 1:1. Now he's offering his $100 to your $20. He's substantially improved his offer to you, while you're being a coward, insisting on terms you know no one would ever agree to.

[KrazyHorse]

I also find it intriguing that KH who insisted on 100 dollars right from the start immediately started talking those numbers down.

I'm STILL offering the same 100$ of my money. The only thing I've "talked down" is how much of your money you'd have to put up.