Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Above comment assumes that undecideds or independents believe that incredibly popular ex-President Bill Clinton would endorse an anti-American terrorist sympathiser

a) Clinton support is assumed
b) Clinton support came out BEFORE Ayers story was strongly pushed by McCain campaign (thus before it was in consciousness of average undecided/weak supporters)
c) It is not about a belief that Obama IS a terrorist sympathizer. It is about the fear that he MIGHT BE. It is classic FUD. Powell is a reassurance. And his ability to reassure is stronger than Clinton's ability to. He is a Republican ex-general. He is comfortable with Obama while knowing about Ayers. He thinks Ayers relationship is trivial. If he had any doubt he wouldn't endorse. He has no doubt, so my doubt is probably silly.

[Imran Siddiqui]

It is about the fear that he MIGHT BE.

Which hasn't flown. Didn't fly in the primaries when Hillary brought it up and isn't flying now. In fact it is hurting McCain's favorables.

Powell is a reassurance.

I'm thinking those who think Obama "might be" a terrorist sympathizer aren't going to care what Powell says about him. Those folk were those who voted for Bush in 2004 and probably think Powell sold out the administration anyway.

[Kidlicious]

OMG Imran. Give it up already. Your man lost. There aren't enough undecideds left for McCain.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

Seriously, if Powell's out there saying that Obama's relationship with Ayers is a joke and that McCain's insistence on bringing it up is indicative of how petty his campaign is, what chance does it have to succeed?

Isn't that argument Obama is already making and that argument is working?! I don't see what Powell is going to do there. The people who are believing in the Ayers = Obama palls around with terrorists aren't going to give one whup about Powell thinking Obama is better.

Again, not about belief. About fear.

And it is possibly the most despicable thing McCain has done since flipping on torture.

Given facts of situation Rev Wright criticism is far more justifiable than Ayers criticism. If you are able to create uncertainty of scale of relationships, then Ayers works better, however. Obama is a left-leaning intellectual. Conflating him with Weathermen is easier than conflating him with angry black man (since he is obviously not angry black man, does not sound like stereotypical angry black politician). Obama's spent entire campaign protecting himself against angry black man label. He is calm, not given to bombast, surrounds himself with multi-ethnic cast. He speaks like a law professor. This actually plays into Ayers narrative. Is still a remote possibility in undecideds' minds, but McCain needs uncertainty. Is his only chance (though I think it's a remote one).

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
I'm thinking those who think Obama "might be" a terrorist sympathizer aren't going to care what Powell says about him. Those folk were those who voted for Bush in 2004 and probably think Powell sold out the administration anyway.

I think you underestimate the stupidity/credulousness of the average undecided voter. Some are thoughtful undecided. Most are not.

I also think that it is unlikely Ayers strategy would have worked anyway. My point is that Powell's timely endorsement kills even the possibility.

If you think Powell didn't talk to somebody in Obama campaign before this then you are extremely naive. They've been holding off, and a week ago they called Powell and told him it was time. The Powell rumours have been circulating since summer, and were supposedly based on more than just speculation...

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Kidicious
OMG Imran. Give it up already. Your man lost. There aren't enough undecideds left for McCain.

43% + 47% = 90%, ergo McCain would only need to rake in 60-80% of undecideds to survive, not to mention that the traditional swing states have a closer spread where a mere 55-70% of undecideds could turn the tide. There's always "enough" undecideds, though I personally don't think he'll appeal to enough of them.

[KrazyHorse]

43-47? Where are your numbers from? Properly weighted averages of national polling are closer to 50-44

[Arrian]

I totally agree that Powell is simply reassurance. Obama isn't the bogeyman.

It's not going to have a particularly big impact. All it does is shore up a little bit of soft Obama support. People who were leaning Obama, but were a little dubious of his "one of usness."

-Arrian

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Darius871
Define "everyone."

Everyone who pays attention to the news.

[Arrian]

Agreed but do you think Powell would do the same thing to his secretary of state?

I actually think loyalty and dedication to duty are good traits for a leader.

Loyalty is a double-edged sword, because it can lead you to defending the indefensible. Overall a good trait, but it's not without downside.

Dedication to duty... sure. Define duty. Is it not one's duty to keep the country out of stupid, unnecessary wars? Was going to the UN to prop up a swiss-cheese casus belli Powell's "duty?" If so, it was his duty to his boss, but not his country.

I don't hate the guy. But I think he ****ed up, and my opinion of him is accordingly diminished.

-Arrian

[Darius871]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Everyone who pays attention to the news.

Which is a pathetically miniscule portion of the voting public, as you know. The average voter had no damned clue that at the time of the conventions Powell was already "going to" endorse Obama, so this seems spontanteous and perception is all that matters.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Why?

I still don't understand what his endorsement has to do at all with Ayers/Socialism.

Then you're beyond hope.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Darius871


43% + 47% = 90%, ergo McCain would only need to rake in 60-80% of undecideds to survive, not to mention that the traditional swing states have a closer spread where a mere 55-70% of undecideds could turn the tide. There's always "enough" undecideds, though I personally don't think he'll appeal to enough of them.

Yeah, your numbers are screwy. Also, a large portion of the people who are not decided won't vote.

McCain has maybe a 15% chance to win. Care to make a bet?

[Darius871]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
43-47? Where are your numbers from? Properly weighted averages of national polling are closer to 50-44

Originally posted by Kidicious
Yeah, your numbers are screwy.

I'd seen one at 43-47 the other day and didn't bother googling to post, but you're correct that "polls of polls" come to around 43-49/44-50. I guess that would might require 90-100% of undecideds if it stays put, but of course A) any analyst worth their salt is predicting the slight tightening in the last 1-2 weeks that is seen in all elections, B) the national popular vote doesn't mean jack-**** when the huge swing states like OH & FL are both at 46-48 requiring only a 66% lean for McCain among undecideds (notwithstanding larger spreads in smaller swing states like VA, CO, NM, etc.), C) the Bradley effect (or for that matter non-racial response biases driven by Obama's popularity) shouldn't be totally ignored, D) the traditional trend of undecideds predominantly leaning toward experience and/or conservative policy out of sheer FUD, and E) I don't trust the methodology of pollsters as far as I can throw it anyway, given that their non-response and coverage inaccuracies made Bush's win in 2000 somewhat surprising. Whatever it is that they're doing wrong (and I mean by objectively bad science, not any kind of bias), it apparently tends to inflate the Democrat's numbers to an extent.

Personally I think McCain is screwed for a number of reasons and I'm glad he is, but I'm still sick of overconfident smuggery tempting fate. Why give the guy ammo for more "already measuring the drapes" jabs?

[KrazyHorse]

Given Obama's structural advantage in Electoral College McCain would probably have to win by popular vote by ~1% at this point.