Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
The positive coverage was stopped dead a day after the convention by the Palin announcement. Powell endorsing Obama that Sunday.. or the Sunday right after the convention would have been of great use.

That's what makes Powell's late timing so interesting - it makes it seem like wanted to catch all three debates before finally deciding, and his position seems all the more reasoned because of that.

Having done so during or right after the convention, by comparison, would have seemed like just more mindless bandwaggoning.

[KrazyHorse]

Imran, think about it this way: if McCain could have gotten away with putting off announcing his VP pick until today, then should he have done it? Of course.

Powell is the exact right person to stop Ayers/socialist critique dead. Well, maybe Gen. Petraeus would be more valuable, but that's not happening. And now is the time to use him. My feeling is that this was McCain's last hurrah. Now there's two weeks left, Powell's knocked the pass down out of the air, and McCain's out of plays.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Darius871
That's what makes Powell's late timing so interesting - it makes it seem like wanted to catch all three debates before finally deciding, and his position seems all the more reasoned because of that.

Having done so during or right after the convention, by comparison, would have seemed like just more mindless bandwaggoning.

Though everyone knew Powell was looking to endorse Obama. I don't think many actually think he wanted to hear what people were saying during the debates first.

The late timing seems like a gotta get it in before the election thing.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
"Wait to endorse me until the best political moment" seems to be a manipulation to me.

If, of the two definitions of "manipulate," you mean:

to manage or utilize skillfully

Then you're technically correct. But if you mean the much more common usage, as I suspect:

to control or play upon by artful, unfair, or insidious means especially to one's own advantage

I sincerely doubt someone of Powell's stature and intelligence could be played upon artfully to do something he wouldn't want to do by the Obama campaign.

It is common practice in campaigns for endorsements to be held until politically potent times. If you don't get this, then you just are clueless about how campaigns work.

While I'm your concern might interest David Plouffe, I think he's shown pretty good judgment in this campaign so far.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Imran, think about it this way: if McCain could have gotten away with putting off announcing his VP pick until today, then should he have done it? Of course.

Why would you? There is a reason you don't get away with this. It's because people have usually made up their minds by now and something this late, other than some scandel doesn't change anything.

Powell is the exact right person to stop Ayers/socialist critique dead.

The critique that is actually hurting McCain the polls you mean? And, once again, I don't see how Powell stops this. McCain will still (and has still) use the critique. Powell doesn't get you anywhere against either (well, if they were sticking).

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

Powell's value here is to counter bad coverage (Ayers, socialism) which is probably McCain's last shot.

You mean the "bad coverage" which is having the effect of lowering McCain's positives and raising Obama's for his dealing with the attacks?

I'd rather have McCain continuing to try to say those things. It seems to hurt him more.

Might be raising McCain's negatives, but it did seem to be turning polls slightly (1-2%) over last 4 days or so (generally takes a while for character assassination to gain traction). And it doesn't matter. The hail mary might not have worked, and might even have been intercepted and run back for a touchdown, but Powell is the guarantee that it won't work. He's double coverage on Moss (either one) in the endzone.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Why would you? There is a reason you don't get away with this. It's because people have usually made up their minds by now and something this late, other than some scandel doesn't change anything.

Why would I? How many extra people are going to vote for McCain due to Palin now? Basically 0 (seriously, it's been polled at ~0 which is a disaster for VP picks). If he'd announced her today how many would vote because of her in 2 weeks? A hell of a lot more than 0.

Imran, you're displaying almost Ben Kenobi level misunderstanding of US politics here.

[Imran Siddiqui]

It just seems to me that Obama supporters are hoping strongly that the Powell endorsement means something, even though endorsements hardly ever matter. I just don't see anything changing here. People who have made up their minds for McCain based on the experience issue aren't going to magically vote for Obama because Powell said he's ok. And the undecideds are very small these days (2 weeks before the election).

And Hell, it's already gone from the front page of the NY Times.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Why would I? How many extra people are going to vote for McCain due to Palin now? Basically 0 (seriously, it's been polled at ~0 which is a disaster for VP picks). If he'd announced her today how many would vote because of her in 2 weeks? A hell of a lot more than 0.

Imran, you're displaying almost Ben Kenobi level misunderstanding of US politics here.

Have you seriously completely ignored the actual value of the Palin pick? The entire pick was to solidify the base, which is incredibly happy at the choice. The base that was likely going to stay home rather than vote for the RINO that is McCain (Hell, a good portion of them would like the ticket flipped).

If he picked her now, people would think he was hiding something by putting her this close to the election and as I said "because people have usually made up their minds by now". Though, of course, it may have effects on turnout on election day, but this close to the election you lose a lot of time when the base could have been knocking on doors and such.

[KrazyHorse]

Powell doesn't mean that a bunch of people change their minds and vote Obama. It means that latest character attacks seem silly (or if they were already seeming silly, seem more silly).

Endorsements are better at countering negative critique than they are at making movement on their own.

People see Ayers and Powell stories next to each other, and think "Powell wouldn't endorse an anti-American terrorist sympathiser". If Powell story is by itself, (i.e. if current narrative is about something outside what Powell symbolises) then it's much less meaningful.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
but Powell is the guarantee that it won't work.

Why?

I still don't understand what his endorsement has to do at all with Ayers/Socialism.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
People see Ayers and Powell stories next to each other, and think "Powell wouldn't endorse an anti-American terrorist sympathiser".

You really think that is what is happening out there?

Above comment assumes that undecideds or independents believe that incredibly popular ex-President Bill Clinton would endorse an anti-American terrorist sympathiser. People who do believe that aren't going to be swayed by a Powell endorsement and are the ones who are going to be pushing the Ayers story.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Though everyone knew Powell was looking to endorse Obama. I don't think many actually think he wanted to hear what people were saying during the debates first.

The late timing seems like a gotta get it in before the election thing.

Define "everyone."

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Have you seriously completely ignored the actual value of the Palin pick? The entire pick was to solidify the base, which is incredibly happy at the choice. The base that was likely going to stay home rather than vote for the RINO that is McCain (Hell, a good portion of them would like the ticket flipped).

If he picked her now, people would think he was hiding something by putting her this close to the election and as I said "because people have usually made up their minds by now". Though, of course, it may have effects on turnout on election day, but this close to the election you lose a lot of time when the base could have been knocking on doors and such.

The R base has not been knocking on doors and such. Haven't you been reading the stories about how badly out-organised they've been?

And yes, he couldn't have gotten away with waiting this long. If somebody's going to be your VP you need to tell people in advance. That's why he didn't do it. But an endorsement isn't at same level. There's no expectation that you tell people two months ahead of time who's going to endorse you.

Endorsements are less valuable than VP picks, but can be used at any time. If you're already winning the war then you keep the endorsement in your pocket and use it later to protect against a slide, or to run out clock, or (as in this case) both.

Seriously, if Powell's out there saying that Obama's relationship with Ayers is a joke and that McCain's insistence on bringing it up is indicative of how petty his campaign is, what chance does it have to succeed? If he's not helping out, there's more risk.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Seriously, if Powell's out there saying that Obama's relationship with Ayers is a joke and that McCain's insistence on bringing it up is indicative of how petty his campaign is, what chance does it have to succeed?

Isn't that argument Obama is already making and that argument is working?! I don't see what Powell is going to do there. The people who are believing in the Ayers = Obama palls around with terrorists aren't going to give one whup about Powell thinking Obama is better.