2012 Republican Nomination

[Ramo]

The reason why Pawlenty is getting play is that the Republican Gubernatorial bench is weak. You've got a bunch of right wingers in small, right wing states (Hoeven, Rounds, Huntsman, etc.), a bunch of moderates with no chance at getting the nomination in states big (Arnie and Crist) and small (Douglas, Carcieri, Rell, and Lingle), and not a lot of people with the gravitas, constituencies, and ideological positioning to do well in both primary and general. And two of the more plausible guys (Huck and Romney) are out of jobs.

So within that context, Pawlenty really isn't that bad. Of the current Governors, I think only Jindal would be a clearly superior candidate (considering both primary and general).

[Imran Siddiqui]

Biden will be 69 by that point, and it's considered extremely unlikely that he would pursue the Presidency again in 2016 at age 73. Since the Vice Presidency is a quick way to get annointed as the chosen successor to a sitting President, I wonder of Joe will bow out from the ticket, thus allowing Obama to choose another successor.

They said the same thing about Bush/Cheney, but that never materialized (probably good for whoever would have been picked as VP2). It is highly unlikely for a VP to be replaced in the next election.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

Biden will be 69 by that point, and it's considered extremely unlikely that he would pursue the Presidency again in 2016 at age 73. Since the Vice Presidency is a quick way to get annointed as the chosen successor to a sitting President, I wonder of Joe will bow out from the ticket, thus allowing Obama to choose another successor.

They said the same thing about Bush/Cheney, but that never materialized (probably good for whoever would have been picked as VP2). It is highly unlikely for a VP to be replaced in the next election.

IIRC, FDR has a different VP in each of his four terms. However, Biden is still youthful, and he knows the Congress. There will be no reason to replace him.

[Imran Siddiqui]

John Nance Garner was the VP under President Franklin Roosevelt for his first two terms. He may have continued, but everyone thought FDR would stick to the precedent of the President only serving two terms, so Garner ran in the primaries. After FDR said he'd run for a third term, Garner stayed in the race since he was starting to disagree with a lot of FDR's policies and disagreed with breaking the precedent of two terms max. That made him a no go for the third term.

He was followed by Henry Wallace, who feuded with Jesse Jones, who was the Secretary of Commerce. Jones was part of the conservative wing of the Democratic Party, while Wallace was far more left wing. Wallace, for instance, tried to put labor clauses in trade agreements with Latin American countries (to say the Latin American countries had to pay fair wages and safe working environments to their workers), which Jones and the Department of Commerce strongly opposed. Roosevelt sided with Jones in this battle and stripped Wallace of his power.

So basically the reason FDR had 3 different VPs is because he got into irreparable fights with all of them.

[Naked Gents Rut]

Wallace, for instance, tried to put labor clauses in trade agreements with Latin American countries (to say the Latin American countries had to pay fair wages and safe working environments to their workers), which Jones and the Department of Commerce strongly opposed. Roosevelt sided with Jones in this battle and stripped Wallace of his power.

FDR siding with today's Republican party.

[Apocalypse]

Why did you not have Bob Riley up there?

He has done rather well for improving Alabama's industry and commerce while being fundie at the same time. I think he would pretty easily beat out almost all of your choices up there.

Originally posted by Ramo
As for an apocalypse,

[Will9]

I like this guy:

[Swissy]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Another interesting question is: providing Obama does indeed win this year, when he runs for re-election in 2012, will he retain Biden as his running mate?

I don't see a quick fix to the economy, especially with liberal Democrats in Congress chomping at the bite to expand government. Remember they haven't had control of it all since 1993. So, Biden would be out in favor of a governor with proven turn-a-round experience. The Republicans counter with the same, Romney and Jindal have the credentials. Actually that would be decent ticket with either on top.

[Ramo]

Originally posted by Apocalypse
Why did you not have Bob Riley up there?

He has done rather well for improving Alabama's industry and commerce while being fundie at the same time. I think he would pretty easily beat out almost all of your choices up there.

IIRC, he had some issues with the guy who was trying to put the 10 Commandments in court houses, and faces a reasonably decent Dem bench in 2010 (Fulsom Jr., Artur Davis, Ron Sparks). But he's probably a more reasonable pick than some of my choices (some of them were added for ideological diversity in case the GOP goes through a fundamental shift). In retrospect, Sonny Purdue of GA is a semi-plausible choice as well.

[Apocalypse]

Why is the 10 commandments really an issue that would affect him?

I think he is a far more reasonable choice than any of your picks. I don't think anyone really combines religion/economics/charisma in that group.

I really think it is Bob Riley's to win next year.

And I mean the presidency because I think the Democrats aren't going to be cohesive at all and just look ridiculously inept during an Obama presidency.

[Ramo]

It could hurt with the religious right. For a while, it looked like Riley was going to lose re-election. And he has gotten absolutely no national press.

I stand by my prediction that it's looking like Palin vs. Jindal vs. Huckabee (with an outside chance of Romney, and Petraeus if he gets in). Not a lot of current Governors are going to be looking good in a couple years. Palin and Jindal have the advantage of oil revenues to insulate their budgets from this recession.

[Apocalypse]

You don't have any conservative thoughts at all though so you don't understand.

People only kinda like Palin. They have decided to cling to that she didn't have an abortion as the type of experience that they really wanted in a president (meaning experience in being pro-life).

Jindal is not going to win. A lot of Catholics really can't stand him because he is a fundie and not a Catholic. Plus he is more fundie than Huckabee.

Huckabee has a nice shot. I think Riley is Huckabee with a better econ background and without the crazy kids though.

Romney is horrible. Many fiscal conservatives never liked him because that is not how he is pro-business, he support cronyism.

[Ramo]

Jindal's a Catholic.

[Ben Kenobi]

You don't have any conservative thoughts at all though so you don't understand.

People only kinda like Palin. They have decided to cling to that she didn't have an abortion as the type of experience that they really wanted in a president (meaning experience in being pro-life).

Moderates are wishy washy on Palin, all the conservatives I've spoken too are thrilled that there is someone who is one of them who shares their beliefs and goals and outlook on life.

Jindal is not going to win. A lot of Catholics really can't stand him because he is a fundie and not a Catholic. Plus he is more fundie than Huckabee.

Cafeteria Catholics? The ones who are practicing all love Jindal, again because he's someone who believes what they do. I don't see how he can be more fundy then Huckabee, unless it's because he actually reads his bible!

[Ben Kenobi]

Yeah, but Nixon won. There is a reason. During the time between Nixon's loss and his nomination, he went around the country campaigning for Republicans. So a lot of the party owed him. Pawlenty doesn't have the political smarts that Nixon had.

He didn't just win, he crushed the Democrats. It's a pretty simple reason, given all the upheaval that was going on in 1968, people wanted a steady hand at the till, and that was Nixon.

To be honest, I didn't believe Palin would be the nominee. I was thinking of a solid prolifer from Ohio who would have been extremely qualified even if he's not recieved much national press.