Obama up 8 points

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
"There are two technologies for producing automobiles in America. One is to manufacture them in Detroit, and the other is to grow them in Iowa. Everybody knows about the first technology; let me tell you about the second. First, you plant seeds, which are the raw material from which automobiles are constructed. You wait a few months until wheat appears. Then you harvest the wheat, load it onto ships, and sail the ships eastward into the Pacific Ocean. After a few months, the ships reappear with Toyotas on them."

-Somebody much smarter than you

Eastward?

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Lancer

http://news.aol.com/elections/article/new-ap-poll-shows-roughly-even-race/197375?icid=100214839x1212016683x1200728573

Presidential Race Tightens, AP Poll Says
By LIZ SIDOTI, AP
posted: 6 HOURS 9 MINUTES AGOcomments: 12185filed under: Election News, Barack Obama, John McCainPrintShareText SizeAAAWASHINGTON (Oct. 22) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

CNN says Obama's lead is widening:

POLL UPDATE: Obama ahead by 8
Posted: 05:52 PM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


(CNN) – As Election Day inches closer, Barack Obama continues to hold a significant lead over John McCain, according to CNN's average of several recent polls.

The Illinois senator now holds an 8-point lead over McCain in the latest CNN poll of polls, 50 percent to 42 percent. That lead is 1 point lager than it was in Wednesday's poll of polls.

The national general election poll of polls consists of four recent surveys: Fox/Opinion Dynamics (October 20-21), Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby (October 20-22), Gallup (October 20-22) and Diageo/Hotline (October 20-22). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

[-Jrabbit]

That AP poll is fatally flawed. Respondents include 45% stating they are evangelical or born-again Christians -- the GOP right's base. National average is 23% based on exit polls of the 2004 election.

There are other issues with the poll, including a geographical lean to the south, but that's the one that sticks out.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker


Eastward?

[Ben Kenobi]

That AP poll is fatally flawed. Respondents include 45% stating they are evangelical or born-again Christians -- the GOP right's base. National average is 23% based on exit polls of the 2004 election.

The same polls that said Kerry dominated Bush?

I wouldn't base anything off the 2004 exit polls, since that would be making the same mistake once again.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut
You want to punish the South Koreans for their protectionist streak by scuttling an FTA that would make it much harder for them to be protectionist in the future?

No...

I just think that it's a bad idea to enter into free trade agreements with countries that constantly put up BS non-tariff barriers to trade. If the US enters into a FTA with Korea, Korea will be able to sell more stuff to the US and they'll put up all kinds of BS restrictions to keep US stuff out of their markets, like they did with US beef and they're doing with the iPhone right now.

Why enter into an agreement with someone who won't keep up their end of the bargain?

[Naked Gents Rut]

Eastward?

Grain from Iowa is barged down the Mississippi to New Orleans. If it's loaded on a Panamax ship, it would go south and then west after passing through the Panama Canal. If the grain is loaded on a Post-Panamax ship, however, it would probably sail east and pass through the Suez Canal.

I just think that it's a bad idea to enter into free trade agreements with countries that constantly put up BS non-tariff obstacles to trade. If the US enters into a FTA with Korea, Korea will be able to sell more stuff to the US and they'll put up all kinds of BS restrictions to keep US stuff out of their market, like they did with US beef and they're doing with the iPhone right now.

Do you really think U.S. negotiators are so dumb as to not have dealt with non-tariff obstacles to trade in the FTA negotiations? I know that the U.S. allowed the South Koreans to keep their rice subsidies in exchange for opening up their beef market, for example.

And, as KH said, even an FTA that South Korea cheats on is better for the U.S. than no FTA at all. It's even better when you think about the pressure it will put on Japan to open up their trade with America.

[Seedle]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut


Grain from Iowa is barged down the Mississippi to New Orleans. If it's loaded on a Panamax ship, it would go south and then west after passing through the Panama Canal. If the grain is loaded on a Post-Panamax ship, however, it would probably sail east and pass through the Suez Canal.

Fair enough, but the original post said "eastward into the Pacific Ocean." That is difficult to do from the U.S., unless you are growing your wheat on a South Pacific Island.

[Kidlicious]

Who cares? The point is that the result is that our financial sector becomes 20% of our economy, everyone else works a Wal-Mart and eventually the economy crashes.

[Naked Gents Rut]

A ship sailing to Japan from the U.S. via the Suez Canal would eventually sail "eastward into the Pacific Ocean."

[Seedle]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut
A ship sailing to Japan from the U.S. via the Suez Canal would eventually sail "eastward into the Pacific Ocean."

Once again, true, but I don't think anyone would read the original post that way. Typo is much more likely explanation

edit: Come to think of it, why must the freighters come back with Toyotas? Don't they have Toyota plants here? ( I realize that even those manufacturers that have domestic plants don't build every model over here, I think.)

[Naked Gents Rut]

Who cares?

I don't, at least about the election. It's over. At this point, the only things that interest me that involve Obama are...

1. Whether or not Pat Fitzgerald can nail any big wigs in Illinois for corruption before President Obama replaces him.

2. Just how gnarly the fraud on Obama's sub-$200 donations is going to be revealed to be post-election. Turns out there's been no security on the online credit card donations, allowing anyone (U.S. citizen or not) to donate unlimited amounts of money to the Obama campaign from one card just by changing their name and address for each small donation. It's so brazen; I love it!

[-Jrabbit]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


The same polls that said Kerry dominated Bush?

I wouldn't base anything off the 2004 exit polls, since that would be making the same mistake once again.

That number was posted just to show how far off reality the poll sample is. Even if it's off by as much as the 04 exit polls were (and frankly, I don't know what that number is, but I'll bet it's just a couple percent), it's still WAY out of whack. The poll is an extreme outlier. That's the point.

Fun fact: Washington bureau chief, Mark Fournier, is a close friend and strong supporter of McCain's. He interviewed for a job with the campaign in '06.

Face it, Ben: This race is over. Even if every undecided voter in the US went to McCain, Obama would still have 286 EVs. McCain is down to mud-slinging robocalls. The media is desperate for drama and storylines, and ignoring legit polls to report on this outlier (and the recent IBD, also with a 1% Obama margin, but showing McCain with a 52-point lead with voters under 25 y.o.). And this is the best they can concoct. All other legit polls continue to show substantial leads for Obama.

Still standing by your prediction?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker


Eastward?

That's what I get for copy pasting...

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Seedle
edit: Come to think of it, why must the freighters come back with Toyotas? Don't they have Toyota plants here? ( I realize that even those manufacturers that have domestic plants don't build every model over here, I think.)

It doesn't matter. It's a demonstration of principle. The principle is that a restriction on the importation of goods is not a transfer from foreign producers to domestic producers; it is a transfer from one type of domestic producer (farmers) to another (car manufacturers) with a deadweight loss to boot. To continue the quote (paraphrasing this time) the fact that there is a place called Japan with people who build cars and consume grain doesn't matter to Americans. Foreign trade is equivalent to a technology which transforms grain to cars (or whatever).