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  • #241
    Well, as expected we finally tested the 2003 lows on the S&P 500. Also as expected, we got a bit of a bounce right after. That ends the "expected" from me. I could see a crash in short order if those lows don't hold, or a long extended rally... or even a bottom of a few months/couple years of bouncing around near the lows. Be careful out there...

    In any case I'm spending the day at the beach tomorrow. Best investment ever

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    • #242
      We busted clean through the 2003 lows, not merely tested them.

      I don't put much stock in technical analysis, but let's be clear on what happened as viewed by a technical analyst.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #243
        768 was the closing low on the S&P 500 last time around. (It was 2002 though, my bad.) 752 being the closing low so far, with a bounce up to ~800 the very next day, certainly qualifies for a "test" much more than "busting clean through".

        (We may very well "bust clean through" as previously noted. But it hasn't happened yet.)

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        • #244
          Originally posted by OneFootInTheGrave
          it was civilized up to this point, and will most likely stay, but if I were you - open another bank account at JPM, or even better Wells Fargo transfer and not worry about disruption... that would be my choice, even though like Dan says - it shouldn't be anything serious even if Citi folds.

          Still safe is safe, and cutting down on the potential stress in such fairly obvious situation is good...
          I keep a week's pay as cash on hand, on the off chance a bump takes longer than expected.

          I'm not really worried. I have 3 months in my checking account, and my bank (Capital Federal Savings Bank in Kansas City) is pretty solid.
          No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

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          • #245
            Originally posted by Aeson
            768 was the closing low on the S&P 500 last time around.
            Are you sure about that? I have it written down as 800 and change.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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            • #246
              That's the number I remember from previous discussions of the topic.

              A quick Google gives 776 Oct 9 2002. Though there are references to 768 as well. In any case, it's pretty clear we bounced off that general area, with only a short 1 day excursion below it so far.

              Here's the timeframe in question on Yahoo finance. I'd assume from this the 768 was not a closing low but rather a mid-day low on the 10th (Google says), but the 776 was a closing low.

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              • #247
                Hmmm... poly is screwing with the link. So you'll have to check it yourself.

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                • #248
                  According to the S&P 500 web site, you are correct. It did close on October 9, 2002 at 776.76.
                  I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                  Comment

                  • #249
                    We have to wait and see how many small retail investors have sold their equity mutual funds. Until they sell out to a certain degree and equity mutual funds have loaded themselves with cash, there is no way this bear can bottom.

                    Comment

                    • #250
                      The question - what about Nortel

                      stock value 0.4$
                      Market Cap $199.00 mil

                      Q3 results were out on Nov 10, with 3.23 bil loss, however this was mosly goodwill, deferred tax reevaluation, in other words mostly not cash/operations related.

                      6 months ago they were trading @ 10$ per share... so they are 95% down on not that much bad news (comparing to the valuation drop)...

                      They are restructuring again... going for another 400mil saving next year, but most importantly they do not appear to be anywhere near collapse. Revenue down "only" 12% and at 2.39bn
                      (for the quarter)... They are still making slightly less than 10bn revenue per year... with about 2.3bn in cash and equivalents... suspended even preferred dividend, as all other sorts of cash preservation actions (hiring freeze, no internal travel etc), so they seem keen on staying alive, and not burning through cash like there is no tomorrow.

                      They do have a fair amount of debt, hence the stock price, but at "only" 1bn of negative equity in total, with about 10bn in revenue, and relatively low cash bleed - 144mil from operations last quarter, they are far from dead...

                      While not a company in "great" shape - they are so low, that they could not possibly get much lower, and if there is any sale, or other kind of future deal, other than bankruptcy (for which there is no reason in the near term, as they do not need to raise cash to continue with operations for at least a year or more), the company is bound to be evaluated significantly higher - could be good way to get something out of them in medium term... no risk no gain as they say
                      Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
                      GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

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                      • #251
                        I would stay very far away from Nortel. They haven't been free cash-flow positive for the last 5 years. And that's not because of knock-out growth either.

                        The only time when it might make sense is if you are knowledgeable about the business and see it as a sure-fire turnaround. Or maybe they're about to be purchased by another company. But I would be skeptical and very cautious.
                        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                        Comment

                        • #252
                          well they do not seem to be in danger of immediate collapse, with collapse like market evaluation... this is the main reason why they are interesting to me, and in addition they will need to raise the price to more than $1 in near term in order to avoid being delisted ... that is a few months worth of taking the risk in there I would think... but no long term investment.
                          Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
                          GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

                          Comment

                          • #253
                            I have played the delisting special situation and have had no success at it. They will do a reverse stock split and make that problem go away.

                            I have played the bankruptcy special situation and have had no success at it. It may be different in Croatia, but companies in North America have no problem declaring bankruptcy and continuing their operations. They don't put much effort into staying out of bankruptcy.
                            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                            Comment

                            • #254
                              Wow, that was something of a crash today. Down 9%.

                              10-year treasuries: 2.74%
                              Trailing 12-month S&P 500 yield: 3.49%
                              Mortgage rates: 5.25%

                              Rather lucrative landscape, unless you believe we are headed to a bad depression.
                              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                              Comment

                              • #255
                                We will be putting some more money in shortly. Then we're done for a while.

                                -Arrian
                                grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                                The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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