It's war. Part III

[Patroklos]

France, UK and Germany have sizable militaries of their own, completely capable of local missions.

As a complete aside, you need to look up what Germany's army consists of. One corps is really not much relative to the potential conflict we are talking about.

[Arrian]

completely capable of local missions

This wouldn't be local.

Besides, it is folly to think that Russia would ever engage with any nuclear power. They are not stupid.

You could substitute USA for Russia in that sentence (I hope!).

-Arrian

[binTravkin]

How is some people somewhere else who may or may not even want us to come in, worth an extreme change of life in the US to prosecute a war wih russia?

JM

Well, Iraq war cost you quite a lot and noone in Iraq invited US military there, still it happened.

[Saras]

As of 1991, the oil of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan belonged to Moscow. Can we not understand why Putin would smolder as avaricious Yankees built pipelines to siphon the oil and gas of the Caspian Basin through breakaway Georgia to the West?
For a dozen years, Putin & Co. watched as U.S. agents helped to dump over regimes in Ukraine and Georgia that were friendly to Moscow.

Wtf?

So now other peoples oil is Moscows?

Buying the Moscow line re: Orange and Rose revolutions hook line and sinker? What's next, Pat Buchanan, member of the Board, Gazprom Americas?

[binTravkin]

As a complete aside, you need to look up what Germany's army consists of. One corps is really not much relative to the potential conflict we are talking about

It is useless to talk about full-scale wars between nuclear countries.
They have never happened and if they ever will, it will be just once (per country at best, per world at worst).
This is what Pat has somehow forgot, which is strange for someone pretending to be politics expert.
The only reasonably feasible conflict between the West and Russia would be through proxy.
If there is no feasible proxy between Russia and a NATO country, there will never be war between those; therefore if Georgia was NATO by now it'd be something similar to Korean war - Georgia vs South Ossetia and Abkhazia, not Georgia vs Russia.

Which basically means Pats explanation of situation and the prospects if Georgia was NATO are rather off.

[Patroklos]

Why would America and/or Russia automatically sign death warrants for all their citizens via nuclear release when all conventional means have not been employed and given a chance to succeed/lose?

Why would then even after the conventional battle is decided? Why would anyone nuke anyone over Georgia in ANY circumstances?

[binTravkin]

One corps is really not much relative to the potential conflict we are talking about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_European_Union#Member_States.27_military_spending

Why would America and/or Russia automatically sign death warrants for all their citizens via nuclear release when all conventional means have not been employed and given a chance to succeed/lose?

Why would then even after the conventional battle is decided? Why would anyone nuke anyone over Georgia in ANY circumstances?

It doesn't work like that.
You don't fight till the last bullet and THEN release nukes - this is not HoI.
The nuclear threat would be real from the very moments the opposing forces would report back that they are now fighting the other nuclear country.

I was not implying someone would nuke someone else over Georgia.
What I was saying is that war between countries like US and Russia is extremely unlikely because of nukes. An armed conflict between those two countries would mimic the historical wars of Vietnam and Korea, which are both history classroom examples of war by proxy.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by binTravkin
Pat Buchanan is strange. Not accepting Georgia in NATO was greenligthing this Russian provocation.

He doesn't want to antagonize Russia. There is some merit to this, Russia's position is quite precarious.

However he fails to realize that Russia has brought this on itself. Poland was balking at the Missile shield before Georgia, the Nato alliance seemed to be coming apart and they possessed an excellent wedge issue between the US and each of these countries, including even Georgia with Kosovo. No Russian interest was served by this display, though Gazprom execs who had margin calls to make are seeing a little relief.

[Patroklos]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milita...litary_spending

So you have discovered Germany has a single corps for an army just like I said. Excellent.

It doesn't work like that.

Says who?

The nuclear threat would be real from the very moments the opposing forces would report back that they are now fighting the other nuclear country

Maybe, MAYBE if they were fighting IN another nuclear country, that doesn't include most of the world.

[binTravkin]

Patroklos, it's 2 years since I last set foot here and you have not grown up from the troll you were back then.

Whoha, I agree about not wanting to antagonize Russia, but strong spine is the only thing that is gonna save others from Russia.
They only understand what you're saying at the gunpoint.
Besides, as I already explained, most of that reasoning doesn't take into account nukes and the proxy war stuff. It would be hard to stage a reasonable proxy war with proxies which only have around 250k pop total and perhaps some 50k military able personell at theoretical maximum vs a country whose main force is around that size, backed by yet more countries (NATO) able to provide immense military intelligence and other help.

[Patroklos]

Patroklos, it's 2 years since I last set foot here and you have not grown up from the troll you were back then.

Yes, I distinctly remember talking circles around your naive notions two years ago. I also remember you calling that being a troll incorrectly back then as well.

So again, what magic rule requires nations to nuke each other on a whim?

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Combat Ingrid
So now even the Russian officials have been brainwashed by the western media? Good work

It must be very embarrassing for Serb since he bought into the Putin propaganda so fully.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by binTravkin

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_European_Union#Member_States.27_military_spending

Wow, Russia is even out spent by China these days.

[Dr Strangelove]

Originally posted by binTravkin

It began in 1918. I'm not saying they began the dispute, I'm saying they used the dispute to flame up the civil war of 1991-1992:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_Civil_War

There's a little problem here.
Majority of osettians (no matter north or both) are christian orthodox faith.
I find it extremely hard to believe their separatist tendencies have anything to do with muslim fundamentalists.

Nevertheless the original "Confederation of the (Mountain) Peoples of the Caucasus" consisted of a coalition of Orthodox Christian and Muslim natives of the caucasus mountain region. Abkhazia declared independence in July 1992. The Georgians retook the province in August 1992. The Georgian commander Karkarashvilli proclasimed that he would take no rpisoners and threatened to leave no Abkazian descendants. By August 25 CPC forces, led by Chechens entered the area, coming to the Abkhazians aid.

Abkhaz are divided between sunnis and orthodoxes, and given that Abkhaz were less than half of the population of the time when the stuff started, it could hardly be related to islam.

Besides, you have to view it in chronological order - First Chechnya war started in 1994, so it's rather hard to imagine how organisations being at the peak of their strength during Checnya wars could spark more massive wars before.


The more reason to not believe it, besides it's in Russia and the numbers are likely to be provided by Russian officials and we know how good at numbers they are.


No, I don't have their CVs, but one can read quite enough online.
E.g. this one is good old communist "secretary general".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Bagapsh

Noone bothers - most are dependent on Russia for fuel and the issue seems so small to their scale.
They also got a much bigger vote to contest - the Putin election itself, where some areas, notably Chechnya reported as 95+% for Putin.
I think here you just need to bring up the good ol materiell about Soviet Union - they used to only have 90%+ "elections" back then.

OH - MY - GOD! They was commies in the Soviet Union! Who'd have thought?! Geez, the perfidy of those Red bastards! Soviet citizens forced to go to Commie universities! Soviet administrators belonging to the Communist party! Did anyone know about this? Frack! I'll bet almost anyone over the age of 21 in Abkhazia today went to a Commie school. They should be disqualified!

Holy Shostakovich!! It turns out that Michael Saakashvilli was educated as a commie too!

[onodera]

No wonder the US is so agitated about this war, they can support either side, and still commies will lose!