Will Georgia turn into a Moscow satellite?

[Lancer]

Zkrib, the Russians teach about the Russians better than I or anyone else ever could. A Russian cease fire means you stop shooting so they can aim better.

Kirnwaffen, the military IS the diplomatic front to Russians. You can't chat them out of an invasion. When I say that the US won't have a voice until the 7th Army is rebuilt, that's what I mean.

[Kirnwaffen]

You can't "chat them out of an invasion", but you can make them feel more comfortable about your intentions and stop needlessly provoking them. That's what I mean when I say we're failing on the diplomatic front. We've spent the last several years acting unilaterally and speaking about Russia in absolute (and less than friendly) terms. We don't even try to find common ground. Those are things that are going to have to happen if you want long term stability and lesser tensions in Europe.

[Lancer]

Yeah, that's right. We should do that while we move up the heavy divisions. Might help distract them.

[Saras]

Heavy divisions

Armored cav

[Lancer]

2nd ACR

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by Saras
Armored cav

Cataphracts

[Sirotnikov]

http://www.businessweek.com/blogs/russia_oil_politics/archives/2008/08/listen_to_the_g.html

The Genocide in South Ossetia
Posted by: Steve LeVine on August 15

The death toll is in for South Ossetia, where Russia accused Georgia of genocide, citing the murder of more than 1,500 civilians for a humanitarian invasion of Georgia.

The figure appears to be about four dozen. Quoting a hospital where virtually all the dead appear to have been taken, since the morgue was without electricity, The Wall Street Journal’s Andrew Osborn puts the figure at 45; and Human Rights Watch says it was about 44. There may have been an additional few victims whose bodies did not reach the hospital.

O and G readers from the State Department and elsewhere have written me privately that they regard Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili as reckless, irrational, and megalomaniacal. They and others I trust regard Saakashvili with opprobrium for bringing on Russia’s wrath.

That Russia would defend South Ossetia was certain. But increasing evidence makes the attack look well pre-planned, not spontaneous. And the authentic death toll makes the justification appear to be a pretext for that attack.

I had a Skype call from Tbilisi tonight from Lawrence Sheets, with whom I reported from the Caucasus from 1992 through 2003. He was then with Reuters; now he’s the regional representative for the International Crisis Group.

Sheets says that he’s pored over the events leading up to the fighting, and says that Saakashvili was left with a choice on August 7th — allow a devastating South Ossetian attack on Georgian villages adjacent to the regional capital of Tskhinvali, or stop it. And Saakashvili decided to stop it. Sheets doesn’t regard that as reckless.

The course of events make it appear that the West may countenance both effective Russian annexation of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, under the guise of a form of independence, and occupation of swaths of Georgia proper. The best scenario seems to be only temporary occupation before a permanent imposition of the former — the annexation part.

We got a picture of what that occupation could look like, at least for now, in the Georgian city of Gori today. Under the watchful eyes of Russian soldiers sitting on tanks, a paramilitary soldier stole two new SUVs belonging to United Nations officials, then dispersed them and journalists by firing into the air. As described by Yaroslav Trofimov, my former Wall Street Journal colleague, three of the U.N. officials escaped by jumping into his car, which then sped away.

[carnide_]

How long to the final act? (Updated at 13.36)

(With updates from another portuguese reporter/ TV channel)
At this very moment, images on portuguese TV show russians and georgians on the road Gori-Tiblisi separated by 20m some 30km away from Tiblisi (Update: or 30km from Gori? ).
The portuguese reporter was asked by a russian: "Are you tired of live?". Very tense situation and agressive behaviour of the russians. Also ossetian paramilitaries and mercenaries from Khazakistan and Tchechnia mingle with the russian troops.
(Update: Two OSCE vehicles allowed to cross the checkpoint into Gori)
Reports of railway destructions, all port facilities in russian hands and russian helicopters patrolling the southern mountain roads.

Some comments:
Tiblisi is about to be toast.
How long before Tiblisi/Georgia will fall completely?
- - -
Will oil rich Azerbaijan be next? If you look at the map, thas makes perfect sense, standing there isolated from the west by Georgia fall.

[carnide_]

Video of the railway bridge destruction today: (denied by the russians)

http://ww1.rtp.pt/noticias/index.php?headline=98&visual=25&article=359180&tema=31

[Sprayber]

Originally posted by Kirnwaffen
I doubt that Ukraine and Poland will become "the next Georgia" unless they seriously provoke Russia into an invasion. Ukraine in particular would be a much bigger task for Russia than Georgia could ever hope to be. At least in the short term. That's why I don't think it's particularly critical that we immediately mobilize in Europe. Longer term, as the reforms in the Russian Army take hold and it becomes a more capable force, I think it's important to better train Eastern European armies and provide a number of heavy brigades in support, as a deterrent.

I agree that you have to be prepared for war in order to secure peace. Being ill prepared invites agression. But you can't ignore the diplomatic front, and I think we're failing pretty miserably there, ATM.

The problem is what Russia considers Provocation? It seems like everything to Russia is a provocation. While we don't want to appear aggressive we can't submit every single decision to approval from Moscow. Eastern Europe and former soviet states shouldn't have to ask permission every time they enter into a deal with a third country.

What it will take is NATO getting together and actually thinking these things through and presenting a united front on a policy. As it is Europe and the US are approaching things from a different perspective and that is going to lead to some very rough times ahead I'm afraid for those countries around Russia.

[Lancer]

What bugs me is that 300 million Americans are going to end up protecting 500 million EU...icans...(?)from 150 million Russians. Still, without us they haven't the will to survive.

[Julian Delphiki]

Maybe we will start to like US again in return.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

war

What bugs me is that 300 million Americans are going to end up protecting 500 million EU...icans...(?)from 150 million Russians. Still, without us they haven't the will to survive.

sure we do, but you and Russians could finally start a War in the far east on Aleut islands or thereabouts, have a place to use all those conventional weapon inventories, just make sure not to kill all the bears and leave Europe out of it

As it is US is using Iraq, and now Russia is using Georgia for no good reason

[carnide_]

There are barrels of reasons in Iraq...


... and in the Georgia - Azerbaijan axis of crude.

[Serb]

Originally posted by Lancer
Zkrib, the Russians teach about the Russians better than I or anyone else ever could. A Russian cease fire means you stop shooting so they can aim better.

Kirnwaffen, the military IS the diplomatic front to Russians. You can't chat them out of an invasion.

Bah! Like anyone can chat you out of an invasion.