It's war.

[Lonestar]

The Poles and Baltic-SS guys are spazzing out and siding with the aggressors over this?

How completely unpredictable!

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Propaganda
Ðîññèÿ ñîåäèíèò âñå áûâøèå Ñîâåòñêèå Ðåñïóáëèêè è íå êòî íå õóÿ íå ìîæåò ñäåëàòü....

Âëàñòü Ñîâåòàì!

More pig latin!

[Propaganda]

Originally posted by Oerdin
I predict the Ukrainian response will be to get NATO membership and EU membership ASAP to avoid Russian meddling in their affairs. Where as some NATO members might have been reluctant now they will fall in line realizing that Russia is once again a threat to security in Europe.

It's doubtful that EU will give them membership, and a NATO alliance is unlikely, as well. Russia has Europe by the balls, and has the power to cut its oxygen suppy, figuratively speaking, with Russia's monopoly on natural gas, and oil. It's doubtful that the EU will risk increasing instability, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

[Dinner]

Russia needs the money from selling oil and gas just as badly as the EU needs to buy it. GAZPROM makes up what percentage of the Russian national budget? 20%? 25% Besides using it as a weapon just shows Russia is unreliable and will encourage them to switch energy sources. That would kill Russia's golden goose.

[Propaganda]

Originally posted by Oerdin


More pig latin!

Òû åòî çàðàáîòàë; êàïèòàëèñòè÷åñêàÿ ñâèíüÿ.

[Propaganda]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Russia needs the money from selling oil and gas just as badly as the EU needs to buy it. GAZPROM makes up what percentage of the Russian national budget? 20%? 25% Besides using it as a weapon just shows Russia is unreliable and will encourage them to switch energy sources. That would kill Russia's golden goose.

Switching to new energy sources will take time, Russia, for all intents and purposes, has the advantage now.

By the way, Gazprom's market value is over $300 billion and is in the ballpark of your budget percentage estimate.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


I heard on the news this morning that the Ukraine is threatening not to let Russian ships return to their port.

If the Ukraine gets drawn into this, and/or if the Russians cut to Georgian oil pipeline to the West, this can get very very nasty, very very fast.

This is the truly scary part, IMO.

Anyone remember certain events in the mid 1910s? This is not that different, except that, so far, no second superpower is solidly on the other side.

Were the EU, or US, or heck, China, to side with Georgia/Ukraine/etc... this could get REALLY scary, REALLY fast.

Probably not nontactical-nuclear-weapons scary, at least not under the present circumstances... but hundreds-of-thousands-dead-tens-of-millions-seriously-wounded-in-a-five-year-long-massive-conventional-war scary.

[Lancer]

I'm not so sure Snoopy. I doubt that the Ukraine gave up all their nukes. After all, they know the guy next door.

If NATO has any guts at all they let the Ukraine in double quick.

[Kuciwalker]

We really should get Ukraine in ASAP, before the Russians are able to reassert their sphere of influence. It's hugely in our interest to prevent the Russians from ever again becoming an imperial power.

[Pekka]

Well, Europe is pretty much in the mix as well with the whole energy resource thingie and dependency, where Georgia plays a major role.

Now, there are two ways to handle it. Negotiate, and make Russia agree that it's enough right about now, or if that fails, then stand up and call the big bluff.

[GePap]

WHat bluff? The Russians clealry have decided to make the Georgians think twice about tweeking them too much, and I don't see anyone in the West doing anything significant to stop Russia besides trying to shame them, and there are times when shame doesn't work cause the party we are trying to "shame" has more important things to do.

[Pekka]

Of course there is no bluff when it comes to Georgia. They quite clearly have been preparing for this possibility, that it might happen, and were commited to this issue before it really started.

By bluff I mean that if they would increase their presence more, and make the invasion more intensified, and start threatning Ukraine with actual possibility of a war and bombings, I think we'd all know it's not really about the people of South Ossetia. And in that case, to demand cease fire between Russia and Georgia. To this, Russia will response that no one has the right to intervene in any way, that Georgia started it, period, and butting in would be severing ties between anyone who wants to intervene. THAT bluff the west should call.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by PLATO

Now I have looked through the UNSC resolutions for the UN approval that you say exists...and I can't find it. I have found many that relate to Abkhazia, but none...not one...to South Ossetia. Have I missed something?

I haven't been able to find any news report of it.

Clearly your country feels that it has its reasons. It seems to me that they have equally clearly stepped over the line of international law.

Peacekeepers are supposed to be neutrals who attempt to keep the peace. Here, the Russians have taken sides and are spreading the violence.

[GePap]

First, I think the whole Ukraine issue is hyperbole right now, so until anything actually happens, I don't find it worth talking about.

The West can demand cease-fires all it wants, but if the West can't get a country like Sudan to do something, don't expect a permament member of the UNSC, a state with thousands of strategic nukes, and one of the worlds largest oil producers to do anything just because it was "demanded". The Russians don't have to do anything in such a case beyond ignoring such calls and continuing to do what they are doing.

The only leverage the West has is threatening to provide direct military assistance to Georgia, and that isn't going to happen.

[onodera]

Originally posted by GePap
First, I think the whole Ukraine issue is hyperbole right now, so until anything actually happens, I don't find it worth talking about.

The West can demand cease-fires all it wants, but if the West can't get a country like Sudan to do something, don't expect a permament member of the UNSC, a state with thousands of strategic nukes, and one of the worlds largest oil producers to do anything just because it was "demanded". The Russians don't have to do anything in such a case beyond ignoring such calls and continuing to do what they are doing.

The only leverage the West has is threatening to provide direct military assistance to Georgia, and that isn't going to happen.