if Obama was a white man...

[Impaler[WrG]]

He would be winning more whites, she would be have retained blacks, net effect probably canceling out.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Ramo
The biggest element of truth to Ferraro's statement is that if a viable black candidate weren't running, Clinton would have the black vote, and therefore the nomination, sewn up.

Well she is the wife of the first black President.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by GePap


You really think he would be getting 90% of the Black vote if he were white? Do you think anyone would be calling the candidacy of a white man "historic"?

Maybe he would be doing better amongst Hispanics and white males, but I think that would be seriously offset by loss of votes elsewhere.

Blacks are less than 15% of the population.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Blacks are less than 15% of the population.

You might want to relook at the population percentages in the states he has won significantly. Also, getting 90% of a 15% segment would be huge within itself!

[Ramo]

Like Wyoming? Idaho? Utah? North Dakota? Vermont?

In the states where the black population is large, white people tend not to be inclined to vote for a black man (look at Mississippi - Obama did win 90% of blacks, but he also won little more than 20% of whites).

[GePap]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Blacks are less than 15% of the population.

And as even Ramo pointed out, they are a significant voting block in the Democratic nominating race. Hillary would have won SC, Georgia, Lousiana, had better numbers in California, and New York, probably won Missouiri, and with that change of momentum the race after February 5 would have been very different.

Plus this charismatic single term white senator would have probably also had less free press, both positive, and negative.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by PLATO


You might want to relook at the population percentages in the states he has won significantly. Also, getting 90% of a 15% segment would be huge within itself!

You have to consider that he would probably get a big chuck of that even if he were white, so it's not that much of a difference.

[Impaler[WrG]]

As 90+% of Blacks are democrats their % in the Nomination race is hugely magnified, the same applies (to varry degree) to all the Democratic leaning groups, Women, blue collar workers, GLBT, and increasingly Hispanics.

13% is the number I've heard most often for Black % of the population, though its getting harder to nail down as more people identify as multi-racial. I'd guesstimate 20+% of the Primary electorate is black.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ramo
Like Wyoming? Idaho? Utah? North Dakota? Vermont?

In the states where the black population is large, white people tend not to be inclined to vote for a black man (look at Mississippi - Obama did win 90% of blacks, but he also won little more than 20% of whites).

Excuse me, did you forget your own previous statement?

I think it said:

The biggest element of truth to Ferraro's statement is that if a viable black candidate weren't running, Clinton would have the black vote, and therefore the nomination, sewn up

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by GePap
Plus this charismatic single term white senator would have probably also had less free press, both positive, and negative.

So why don't other black candidates have such success. That's the obvious question.

[Ramo]

Excuse me, did you forget your own previous statement?

There's no contradiction. I was responding to PLATO's point.

And the previous point is that specifically because Hillary Clinton is Bill Clinton's wife, she was able to build up an institutional advantage in the black community that would've been prohibitive to make up by anyone who wasn't black.

If we're going to throw out black, you've got to throw out woman and spouse of a former President as well. Are you saying that we've never seen a charismatic candidate beat a marginally more experienced, less charismatic one?

[Jaguar]

Obama's fame and success come from his public speaking ability, not his skin color. When he gave that speech back in 2004, people were impressed with his charisma and speaking ability. They weren't saying "HAY GUYZ LOOK HE'S BLACK."

Furthermore, it's absurd for Ferraro to whine about how Clinton has to deal with a "very sexist media" and then turn around and say something like that. If you're going to be oversensitive, you'd better damn well avoid saying things that offend oversensitive people.

On the whole, I think she's being a moron. Especially at the very end of the quoted block in the OP, she just looks really immature.

And sure, she's right that Obama's life would be different if he were a different race, but that's really pointless. The fact is that Obama brings some genuine abilities to the table, like the ability to inspire people - something that the Mondale-Ferraro ticket decidedly lacked.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Kidicious


So why don't other black candidates have such success. That's the obvious question.

Do you remember the last few black presidential candidates?

Three of them were also women, Shirley Chisholm, Lenora Fulani, and Carol Moseley Braun.

The other three of course were Keyes, Sharpton, and J. Jackson.

Generally people without any histroy of winning elections win the presidency. Of this group, only two had held previous elected position: Congresswoman Chisholm and Senator Braun. Senator Braun had some controversy as her term in the Senate was ending, and Chisholm was running far head of her time.


Of this lot, Jesse Jackson was the most serious contender, and he was also very charismatic, but again, his background was not of an elected official, and he was already a very known quantity when he ran.

[Ben Kenobi]

Clinton's old enough to collect social security. Since when is that 'middle aged?'

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ramo
The biggest element of truth to Ferraro's statement is that if a viable black candidate weren't running, Clinton would have the black vote, and therefore the nomination, sewn up.

Exactly. And really, a lot of Presidential primary campaigning is about building up momentum. I think if Obama wasn't black, he wouldn't have gotten the black vote in South Carolina from the Clintons and the ball never would have gotten rolling.

As she was married to someone called by some black leaders as "the first black President", you had to have a black person to break that lock.