Florida Primary

[Patroklos]

The people painting Obama as a muslim were successful to a degree down here. I have to point out that he is in not a muslim in any way shape or form when hanging out in certain circles.

They always reply "Well his father was." Awesome

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Admiral
Well, it looks like Edwards is dropping out today. I fear this gives Clinton a big edge going into next week.

Why? Most of Edwards' supporters are a natural fit for Obama.

[Dinner]

Re: Re: Florida Primary

Originally posted by Heraclitus


I love how he dosen't even edit his post and lets other people have fun too.

I wasn't here but even so I don't normally edit. I honestly thought Florida was like Michigan in that Hillary was the only name on the ballot. Even so at the time of the original post she wasn't doing as well as expected given that she was the only candidate who broke the promise not to campaign in Florida. Obama and Edwards honored their pledges while Hillary lied.

[Imran Siddiqui]

she was the only candidate who broke the promise not to campaign in Florida.

Hillary really didn't campaign in Florida (what she was there like 1 day?).

[Igloodude]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

she was the only candidate who broke the promise not to campaign in Florida.

Hillary really didn't campaign in Florida (what she was there like 1 day?).

It depends on your definition of "campaign" - she was down there for private fundraising events on at least three different occasions IIRC.

And she's left a bad taste in my mouth (not that I'm a fan in the first place) after signing the pledge and assuring New Hampshire voters that she liked NH going first, and then after that primary ended pulling for Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated.

But as to Obama in southern states - the folks that won't vote for a black candidate generally aren't going to vote Democrat (and certainly not Hillary) in any case, so I don't see much of a story there.

[Dinner]

There are a lot of people in the middle ground on both parties who, if the polls are to be believed, are considering Obama who normally wouldn't vote for a Democrat (Obama Republicans if you please. ). He also is polling unusually strongly among independents.

Will Obama actually get the nomination? I'd say he has a 1 in 3 chance.

[Kuciwalker]

While blacks may come out in large numbers to vote for Obama, don't be surprised if a number of white voters come out in droves to vote AGAINST Obama to counter that.

In the SC primary, white voters were evenly split between Hillary and Obama. I don't buy that there will be a huge white backlash against Obama in the South. There might be some, but most of those people would vote Republican anyway (and like Igloodude said, they won't vote for Hillary either).

[Kidlicious]

There are a lot of prejudice Democrats. Don't fool yourself thinking that only Repugs are prejudice.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
In the SC primary, white voters were evenly split between Hillary and Obama.

He lost teh White vote by a wide margin in SC. I think he only got 1 out of 3 White voters there.

[Igloodude]

Originally posted by Kidicious
There are a lot of prejudice Democrats. Don't fool yourself thinking that only Repugs are prejudice.

Oh, believe me, I don't. But a whole lot of those prejudiced Democrats are in states that at this point are very safely Republican electoral votes.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
He lost teh White vote by a wide margin in SC. I think he only got 1 out of 3 White voters there.

Huh, I thought I remembered reading they were split evenly.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/26/AR2008012601106.html

Obama's overwhelming victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton came with 80 percent of South Carolina's black voters backing him, but only a quarter of whites. Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards each got about a third of the white vote.

Hm.

[Imran Siddiqui]

If we look at the Florida exit polling:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/FL.html

White voters overwhelming voted for Clinton: 52% to Obama's 23% and Edwards' 20%.

Clinton also won Hispanics handily: 59% to Obama's 30% and Edwards' 8%.

People seem to forget that Hispanics like Clinton. FAR more than Obama.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Igloodude


Oh, believe me, I don't. But a whole lot of those prejudiced Democrats are in states that at this point are very safely Republican electoral votes.

Yea, it will come down to places like Florida and Ohio.

[Admiral]

If I were Obama, I'd be doing everything I could to get Richardson to endorse, and otherwise advertise/outreach heavily in Hispanic areas. They are going to be a key demographic in California, and if Obama doesn't pick up a little under half the California delegates, he will have problems.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Admiral
If I were Obama, I'd be doing everything I could to get Richardson to endorse, and otherwise advertise/outreach heavily in Hispanic areas. They are going to be a key demographic in California, and if Obama doesn't pick up a little under half the California delegates, he will have problems.

A Democratic candidate has to really **** it up to lose CA. It's not impossible though.