Florida Primary

[Rufus T. Firefly]

There are 3 big problems for the Dems inrunning Clinton instead of Obama against McCain:

1) Independents will vote for Obama, but not Clinton
2) Young voters will come out for Obama, but not Clinton
3) The GOP base will turn out to vote against Clinton, but not Obama

The electoral collage math still favors the Dems in the fall, but Clinton-McCain is the likliest scenario for an upset. I think I just decided to vote Obama.

[Kuciwalker]

1) Independents will vote for Obama, but not Clinton
2) Young voters will come out for Obama, but not Clinton

[Rufus T. Firefly]

You may be the exception, Kuci, but I'll bet I'm right.

[snoopy369]

Just because you have a crush on Hillary, Kuci, don't blame the rest of the folk your age who are not insane...

[Kuciwalker]

[SlowwHand]

I'm Independent and no way in hell will I vote Clinton.
I doubt I'd vote Obama. I might, but it's doubtful.

[SlowwHand]

Let me give you an analogy that fits.

When I was in school, Billie Cox was my guidance counselor. Years later, my daughter, Summer, started to school, and Billie Cox was her principal. Yeah.
Summer was asked about it. "Are you in anyway related to..". Our name isn't Smith or Jones.
To get to the point, my reputation preceded her. Just like Bill's precedes Hillary.

[Ramo]

Despite McCain winning, this wasn't a bad night for Dems. Consider that 47% of the turnout in a state that Bush carried in 2004 voted for a Democrat in a primary that doesn't matter and where no one campaigned or advertised at a significant level, instead of a Republican in one of their most important, expensive, and bitterly contested races - and a race that arguably decided the nominee.

[Imran Siddiqui]

To get to the point, my reputation preceded her. Just like Bill's precedes Hillary.

In that case Hillary will win in a landslide .

[SlowwHand]

We'll see.

[David Floyd]

Also, why are we assuming Iraq will be going poorly in November?

What if it isn't - does that change anything? Seems like that IF Iraq is going relatively well, it makes McCain look like he knows what he's talking about.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Also, why are we assuming Iraq will be going poorly in November?

Surge is ending a few months before then, IIRC.

[David Floyd]

I know. Still, you never know.

Also, there seems little doubt that Bush, Petraus, etc., believe the surge is working well. Who's to say that don't do it again, in, say, September or October, just in time to see results by the election?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by David Floyd
I know. Still, you never know.

Also, there seems little doubt that Bush, Petraus, etc., believe the surge is working well. Who's to say that don't do it again, in, say, September or October, just in time to see results by the election?

Cause the Pentagon is on record saying they can't sustain it past when they are planning on ending it.

It'd be an even greater PR disaster to try it again when the Pentagon is yelling "NO! NO!!"

[snoopy369]

Ending the surge in Septemer, or whatever, then they can send a bunch of troops home, and McCain can say, "Yay, we stuck it out and did what we said we'd do, and made a big difference, instead of running like ****s with our tails between our legs, like a certain senator from a northern state wanted us to." They can pursue a strategy that keeps casualties down for a month or two (they do have some control over this), and it could well end up in McCain's favor...