Florida Primary

[Ramo]

If Iraq is going well, McCain will do fine. I don't think it'll happen, though.

Despite the reduction in violence (which is what everyone predicted in the beginning of the surge anyways), there still hasn't been significant motion as far as resolving sectarian conflicts. In other words, so far the surge has completely failed its initial mission. Arguably, the political process has gone backwards. The oil compromises are breaking down, the supposed de-de-Ba'athification law is backed up by the Sadrists and opposed by the Sunni Arabs, and ends up throwing more Sunnis out on the street, the militias are ascendant in the South, and we've built up power bases in Anbar that could act as a rival to the state. When we significantly reduce our troop presence in the coming months - something we have to do, I would expect to see the violence get worse.

[snoopy369]

What would be hilarious would be either McCain, or Richardson-as-VP-candidate, heading over to Iraq and forging (at least temporarily) a peace between two major groups. Shades of 1980, and you know both camps have to be thinking about it... if they managed it, somehow, even a show-peace like the palestinians at Oslo, the election would be basically over...

[Ramo]

The Iraqi political scene is way too fractured for something like that to possibly happen...

[Ramo]

To elaborate on the weakness of McCain, I'll point to health care. Which along with Iraq, is the issue that's going to kill Republicans this fall. He stood with Bush on opposing the uber-popular SCHIP expansion. His health care plan doesn't do squat to help the poor, and basically incentives people to buy high deductible health insurance and not go to the doctor. Like the other Republican candidates, Romney isn't serious about health care either and is running away from the moderate plan that he signed, but at least he still has the opportunity to flip flop and point to it or something similar once he wins the nomination (which, again, is not gonna happen).

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
There are 3 big problems for the Dems inrunning Clinton instead of Obama against McCain:

1) Independents will vote for Obama, but not Clinton
2) Young voters will come out for Obama, but not Clinton
3) The GOP base will turn out to vote against Clinton, but not Obama

Sorry to quote myself, but I forgot

4) Obama makes the South competitive for the Dems, Clinton doesn't

[Heraclitus]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly

2) Young voters will come out for Obama, but not Clinton

Please not with the youth vote talk.


Youth demographic in theory strong but in practice is a weak political power.

[Heraclitus]

Re: Florida Primary

Originally posted by Oerdin
Latest results here: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/...ary/index.html

It seems McCain is just a nose ahead of Romney while Clinton, the only Democrat on the ballot, doesn't appear to be getting a clear majority. After Hillary's slimy and self serving sudden change of heart and breaking her promise not to campaign in Florida I hope the ***** loses to undecided. How sad would it be if she's the only one on the ballot and still can't get a majority?

I love how he dosen't even edit his post and lets other people have fun too.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Heraclitus


Please not with the youth vote talk.


Youth demographic in theory strong but in practice is a weak political power.

I don't disagree, but such young voters as have turned out have been turning out for Obama. In a close election, as the last two have been, even a small youth vote could make a difference; based on evidence so far, the young voters turning out are Obama voters, not Democratic voters, and I wouldn't expect them to come out to vote for Clinton in Nov.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Sorry to quote myself, but I forgot

4) Obama makes the South competitive for the Dems, Clinton doesn't

I'm thinking a black candidate with a Muslim sounding name has absolutely NO chance in the South.

An article in NYTimes today shows what I'm talking about:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/us/politics/30south.html

COLUMBIA, Tenn

“We have nobody representing us,” he continued, adding that he was “sad to say” he had voted previously for Mr. Bush. He was considering sitting out this election altogether. “Anyone but Obama-Osama,” he said, chuckling at a designation that met with mirthful approval at the table.

Some white voters voiced outright alarm over Mr. Obama, and though he is a Christian, allusions to his supposed Muslim ties were frequent, as were suggestions that he remained a disturbingly unknown quantity.

Similar unease was voiced in Yell County, Ark., another place that has swung back and forth, where some were quick to say that Mr. Obama’s race was not prohibitive for them personally but could well be for others.

(ie, "I'm not voting for a black candidate, but I'm not going to say that to you")

“Statements I’ve heard, Obama, they’re seriously afraid of him,” said Bobby Rollans, a retired teacher, sitting at Savanna’s, a restaurant perched on the Arkansas River. Bill Mashek, a retired National Guard officer, said, “I’ve talked to some yellow-dog Democrats; they won’t vote for Obama.”

While blacks may come out in large numbers to vote for Obama, don't be surprised if a number of white voters come out in droves to vote AGAINST Obama to counter that.

(Not saying that Hillary Clinton will do any better)

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Interesting, but I'm wondering if a galvanized black vote counters that, to some extent. I would never expect Obama to take any southern states, mind you; I just think he might force the GOP to spend money to counter a surge in black voting (in SC, for example, Obama's vote count was 2/3 that of all the votes cast in the Republican primary). And forcing the GOP to spend money in states they're going to win anyway is a good thing.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Interesting, but I'm wondering if a galvanized black vote counters that, to some extent. I would never expect Obama to take any southern states, mind you; I just think he might force the GOP to spend money to counter a surge in black voting (in SC, for example, Obama's vote count was 2/3 that of all the votes cast in the Republican primary). And forcing the GOP to spend money in states they're going to win anyway is a good thing.

What I'm saying is that a galvanized black vote will be countered by a galvanized white vote. Race is still big down here in the South and it can get ugly.

[DinoDoc]

as were suggestions that he remained a disturbingly unknown quantity.

Given that his favored venue so far this campaign to answer questions seems to be places like the Tyra Banks Show, I'm forced to agree.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


What I'm saying is that a galvanized black vote will be countered by a galvanized white vote. Race is still big down here in the South and it can get ugly.

Yeah, I get it, but I think the GOP would have to pay to galvanize and anti-Obama vote among white Dems, which would be a tactical problem. But I could be wrong; hell, I thought it would be McCain withdrawing this week.

[Kidlicious]

You guys make it sound like people might actually vote in this election.

[Admiral]

Well, it looks like Edwards is dropping out today. I fear this gives Clinton a big edge going into next week.