The OFFICIAL U.S. presidential predictions thread(with prizes!)

[Lul Thyme]

Re: The OFFICIAL U.S. presidential predictions thread(with prizes!)

Originally posted by Vesayen




Format:

If multiple people get question 1 right, we go to question 2 and so on, till all the questions thus far are only answered correctly by one person, who wins the prize.

1. Post your predictions for the winner of the democratic nomination.

2. Post your prediction for the winner of the republican nomination.

3. Post your prediction for the winner of the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

4. Post your prediction for the difference in the popular vote between the Republican and Democratic candidates. If X gets 48% and Y gets 45%, then the difference is 3%. We will round to the first decimal place, so if it was 48.1% and 45%, then the difference is 3.1%

5. Post your prediction for the third party candidate is who wins the most votes.

6. Post your prediction for the % of the popular vote the highest ranked third party candidate receives, again, rounded to the first decimal.


You do not need the spell the candidates names correctly to win, but it is encouraged.


Predict away.

My predictions for your system :
you will NOT get a single winner because it's very badly designed.

Heck, I'll even go so far as to predict how and where things will go wrong:

More than one person will get all three first correct but noone will get question 4 correct (it's almost impossible to get it correct, the way you phrased it, making question 5 and 6 irrelevant)



A couple suggestions:

-Having a system of the form "If multiple people get question 1 right, we go to question 2 and so on, till all the questions thus far are only answered correctly by one person, who wins the prize." can often yield no SINGLE winner, if the maximum number of correct answers from the start is shared among many participants.

-Questions 4 and 6 don't fit with the rest. The others amount to choice among less than 10 or so possibilities (I have no idea, know nothing about this election, just talking about general principle), while in effect, Question 4, for example, probably has over 100 possibilities (assuming +/- 5%)

Not saying you can't have these kind of questions but using a system of right or wrong makes no sense at all.
You would be better off using a point system where the closer you are to the right answer, the more points you get, and right answers to multiple choice questions give some points then add total or some such. Rounding to nearest integer might also work.

[Vesayen]

If multiple people get 1 2 and 3 but no one gets 4, then whoever got closest to 4, wins.

If two people are equally close to 4 and got the rest right...... well 5 and 6 are still there.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by b etor
at first i though 'oh, what a boring thread. i'm not going to click it.' but then i saw the words (with prizes!) and i opened it.
it's still a boring thread though.

It wouldn't be fair if you participated anyway.

[Guynemer]

1. Clinton

2. Guilani

3. Guilani

4. 0.6%

5. Bob Barr

6. 0.3%

[Rufus T. Firefly]

1. Clinton

2. Huckabee Romney

3. Clinton

4. 3%

5. Lou Dobbs

6. 2%

edit: I changed my mind.

[SlowwHand]

Re: Re: The OFFICIAL U.S. presidential predictions thread(with prizes!)

Originally posted by Deity Dude
1. democratic nomination. CLINTON

2. republican nomination. GIULIANI

3. 2008 U.S. presidential election. GIULANI

4. % Difference. ROUNDED TO A TIE.

5. 3rd party most votes. PAUL

6. 3rd Party %. 4%

This is a likely scenario.

[DaShi]

1. Clinton

2. Giuliani

3. Clinton

4. 15%

5. Nader

6. 0.001%

[Krill]

1. Obama
   
2. Huckerbee
   
3. Huckerbee
   
4. 1.1%
   
5. Nader?
   
6. 1.5%

[David Floyd]

1. democratic nomination. CLINTON

2. republican nomination. ROMNEY

3. 2008 U.S. presidential election. ROMNEY

4. % Difference. 3.3%

5. 3rd party most votes. Libertarian Candidate Daniel Imperato*

6. 3rd Party %. 1.2%

____

*I think the Libertarian candidate is most likely to get the most Third Party votes. After Ron Paul finishes a surprising 3rd or 4th for the Republican nomination (and yes, I think this is a distinct possibility), he won't run as an independent. However, his message, which is very Libertarian, will be out there, and I think the actual Libertarian candidate will pick up additional traction because of that. Imperato, IMO, is the most likely Libertarian nominee.

Also, I think that the Democratic field is pretty weak. You have a female candidate who is seen as fairly liberal, and a black candidate with a "funny name" who is seen as a lighweight. The liberal wing of the Democratic party will land solidly behind them, but the moderates and conservative Democrats aren't going to vote for either one, IMO. The only real candidate the Dems have is John Edwards, and I don't think he has a shot at the nomination. Nominating Hillary or Obama would be akin to a Republican nomination of Thompson, Paul, or Huckabee.

The Republicans, though, have a number of very viable candidates who can and will appeal to the middle, such as Giuliani and even Romney. I think the only way they lose is if they nominate someone such as Thompson or Paul, or possibly Huckabee.

[DaShi]

Really? I think that it's the opposite. Teh democrats are having a hard time deciding which candidate to choose because they like them all. Meanwhile, the republicans are trying to decide which turd smells the best.

[David Floyd]

Yeah, in the nomination process. The Presidential Election is going to be different, IMO. How many independents and undecided voters, do you think, vote in the primaries?

Not a hell of a lot, more than likely.

[DaShi]

Polls indicate otherwise.

[David Floyd]

I could easily be wrong. It's happened before.

But then again, so have the pollsters.

[DaShi]

True. But I've never been wrong.

[David Floyd]

Then I hope you enjoy your prize, which hopefully will be announced soon