Chinese sub plays Marco Polo with US Navy battle fleet... and wins.

[Patroklos]

I don't know.

Really, you don't know wha the response of the US would be to having its soverign territory subjected to an unprovoked attack by an easily identifiable (and thus targeted) state actor who happens to be in competition with us for regional power, killing up to 5000 Americans?

During the first Gulf war, Japan, I think, refused to allow its merchant fleet to be used to carry wartime supplies to our forces and those of our allies.

I assume you mean 91, because in the current Gulf war the Japanese have provided auxillary tanker suport protected by their own warships.

In any case Japan, in the shadow of Chinese hegemony, allowing their one significant backer keeping them from becoming a Chinese satellite to fight on their defacto behalf without their suppor is ludacris. If anything this would be exactly the opportunity Japan would relish to dogpile on China without an moral hangups.

As to the others, they either have too much interest in not pissing off china, or no real way to help in what the conflict would become.

If the US goes to war with China the world economy hicups for everyone regardless. If the US goes to war with China, there is no need to worry about how pissed off China will be at anyone when it is all over. If the US goes to war with China because China initiated and unprovoked military attack against the US there is no reason not to dogpile on China.

Taiwan is not worth a war between the USA and China.. let the Chinese have it imo

That is not the scenario we are talking about, though I will if you want (it is one of my favorites ).

China's projected top of the line fighters for 2015 is only upto 500.

By 2015 the F-35s will be online and the F-22 production run complete as well.

[Patroklos]

Assets of our minimum allies:

Australia = 71 F-18s

Japan = 178 F-15s/108 F-4s/61 F-2s (F-16s).

Thats 418 third gerenation fighters by itself, with most of them being superior to everything in the Chinese inventory. Include Japanese AWACS, at the very least that would mitigate most attempts by China to achieve air superiority over our island bases and the sea space in between, let alone attack them.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by Patroklos
Really, you don't know what the response of the US would be to having its soverign territory subjected to an unprovoked attack by an easily identifiable (and thus targeted) state actor who happens to be in competition with us for regional power, killing up to 5000 Americans?

No I don't.

I assume you mean 91, because in the current Gulf war the Japanese have provided auxillary tanker suport protected by their own warships.

Yep I meant in 91. and I want to know whether auxiliary tanker support means that they are carrying wartime supplies like ammunition,vehicles,etc to our forces.

[Alinestra Covelia]

Ideally what would happen would be something like this:

a) Mainland China matures economically to the point where it values assimilation with the global community more than it values confrontation. [In my opinion they're closer to the end of this process than they are to the beginning, ie more than 50% done.]

b) Mainland China matures politically to the point where it values the state's contribution to the individual more than it values vice versa. (This may be as full blown as democracy, or it may be reflected in a less centralized government model.) Without this step, there is little to entice Taiwan's populace into any sort of identity with the mainland because their own rights are unlikely to be respected.

c) Relations between the US and PRC improve to the point where Taiwan's role as balancer-of-power and friendly local base is no longer required.

At this point, American strategic interests in Taiwan would no longer be critical, and Taiwan could be reasonably assured of a self-governing role alongside a mainland that was, for better or worse, ethnically, culturally, and linguistically very similar to it.

This may be many years off though. It would be nice for me to be able to bring my ancestors' ashes back to the mainland at some point.

[Patroklos]

No I don't.

I do

Yep I meant in 91. and I want to know whether auxiliary tanker support means that they are carrying wartime supplies like ammunition, vehicles,etc to our forces.

Being an auxiliary tanker, it carries fuel

I UNREPED with the Musashi twice when I was over there last, and the Tokiwa the time before (3 years ago).

I consider fuel for destroyers to be wartime material
.

[Patroklos]

Ideally what would happen would be something like this:

Ideally, but when talking about a hypothetical confrontation, there has to be a confrontation

[Alinestra Covelia]

^ True dat.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by Patroklos


I do


Being an auxiliary tanker, it carries fuel

I UNREPED with the Musashi twice when I was over there last, and the Tokiwa the time before (3 years ago).

I consider fuel for destroyers to be wartime material
.

Fuel is important, but it isn't a clear, unambiguous wartime material. And I meant to ask if they had changed their previous policy, which I believe that they haven't.

[Patroklos]

Fuel is important, but it isn't a clear, unambiguous wartime material. And I meant to ask if they had changed their previous policy, which I believe that they haven't.

If their commissioned warship auxilary tanker ever does an underway replenishment with a civilian vessel let me know, as it is you are probably the only one in the world to consider fuel onboard a military vessel being used only to fuel other military vessels not military material.

And of course, a Japanese destroy in the Persian Gulf protecting the logistics supply of coalition warships enforcing sanctions on Iran is probably seen as war material by the Iranians at least.

And I meant to ask if they had changed their previous policy, which I believe that they haven't.

The Japanese have six amphibious vessels in their inventory, soon to be suplimented with the new (and sweet) Hyuga classes.

Unless they are going to invade themselves, it looks like they have changed some things.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by Patroklos
If their commissioned warship auxilary tanker ever does an underway replenishment with a civilian vessel let me know, as it is you are probably the only one in the world to consider fuel onboard a military vessel being used only to fuel other military vessels not military material.

So they are only refueling combat warships, not the merchant marine supplying them, or other vessels? Fuel is fairly fungible.

[Patroklos]

So they are only refueling combat warships, not the merchant marine supplying them, or other vessels? Fuel is fairly fungible.

Yes. Only military vessels can conduct underway replenishments. Not that it matters though, even if they were supplying both military and civilian ships, they are still supplying military ships.

And there is no merchant marine supplying them. No merchant marine supplies any navy. At least not like your thinking.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Whoha


So they are only refueling combat warships, not the merchant marine supplying them, or other vessels? Fuel is fairly fungible.

Military refuelers don't refuel civilian vessels. Fuel on board a military refueler is considered war material under any definition that I know of.

[Dinner]

Of course given modern satalite technology the location of battle fleets is realitively easy to track. This does mean that effective use of submarines is easier though the dangers can be partially midigated by increased use of screening vessals for capital ships.

This means we need to place a priority on destroying enemy satalites in orbit while protecting our own. It also means that any Chinese surface fleet would be a relative sitting duck if it ever goes beyond the range of surface based air cover. I suspect the Chinese navy would quickly find itself a latoral force with the exception of their submarines.

China' largest weakness is that 70% of their oil must be imported and this percentage is increasing. If the Americans can successfully maintain a naval blockade and China cannot find a land based method to import oil then their economy will quickly be severely restricted. American control of the Straights of Malacca as well as a general blockade of the Chinese coast should be very effective.

[Patroklos]

Of course given modern satellite technology the location of battle fleets is realitively easy to track.

I wouldn't be so sure, they were certainly not the silver bullet back in the GIUK gap, and that was a smaller area to cover than the entire coast of China and the first island ring. I don't know what quality China's maritime recon sats are at, or even if they have any, but I would imagine if they do they are at 70's Russian tech level at best.

China' largest weakness is that 70% of their oil must be imported and this percentage is increasing. If the Americans can successfully maintain a naval blockade and China cannot find a land based method to import oil then their economy will quickly be severely restricted. American control of the Straights of Malacca as well as a general blockade of the Chinese coast should be very effective.

QFT.

I suspect some bombing of pipelines just inside the China's boarders to the North and West would exacerbate this problem.

[Joseph]

I have enjoy reading all of this.