The ridiculousness of Obama

[SpencerH]

I think that the New Yorkers who saw the NYC murder rate plummet under Guilliani's stewardship might disagree.

"Crime in New York City is the lowest among the 25 largest cities in the United States. Since 1991, New York City has seen a continuous fifteen-year trend of decreasing crime. Neighborhoods that were once considered dangerous are now much safer. Violent crime in the city has dropped by 75% in the last twelve years and the murder rate in 2005 was at its lowest level since 1963: there were 537 murders that year, for a murder rate of 6.57 per 100,000 people, compared to 2245 murders in 1990. Some feel that the implementation of COMPSTAT crime analysis by the New York Police Department in 1994 is responsible for the positive changes.

Overall, New York City had a rate of 2,801.6 crimes per 100,000 people in 2004, compared with 8,959.7 in Dallas; 7,903.7 in Detroit; 7,402.3 in Phoenix; 7,346.8 in San Antonio; 7,194.8 in Houston; 5,470.5 in Philadelphia; 4,376.0 in Los Angeles; and 4,102.7 in San Diego."

from wiki (since it was easy)

[DanS]

I'm mostly in agreement with what Rufus has to say. Minor quibbles on how blue PA is, however. Santorum was fighting against a solid politician with a legendary last name in rural PA politics. FYI, I dislike Santorum, so had no particular dog in that fight.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by SpencerH
I think that the New Yorkers who saw the NYC murder rate plummet under Guilliani's stewardship might disagree.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2006/12/05/giuliani/index.html

[CrONoS]

Reading this thread was fun.

And 1 years later we are seeing that Ramo successfully predicted what is happening right now about Obama, Clinton and the dems.

Originally posted by Asher
Obama is one character away from Osama -- unelectable.

[Whoha]

edit: damn threadomancy.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by CrONoS
Reading this thread was fun.

And 1 years later we are seeing that Ramo successfully predicted what is happening right now about Obama, Clinton and the dems.

Obama is one character away from Osama -- unelectable.

But how much does his winning the Dem primary really affect whether he's unelectable? When it comes to GOP and independent voters, all he's gained in the last year is exposure.

[Riesstiu IV]

2006, those were the good'ol days.

[CrONoS]

Originally posted by Darius871


How does his winning the Dem primary really affect whether he's unelectable?

I just quoted what Asher wrote one year earlier...

[CrONoS]

Originally posted by Riesstiu IV
2006, those were the good'ol days.

Robocon

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=4696834#post4696834

[Darius871]

Originally posted by CrONoS
I just quoted what Asher wrote one year earlier...

Sorry, with the quote being in the context of Ramo being right, it just read like you were suggesting something.

This is really the best post of the thread, and I fail to see how its accuracy has changed one iota in the last month:

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
The GOP isn't afraid of Obama. They are, however, scared sh!tless of Hillary, and with good reason.

...

Remember, we're a republic, not a democracy. This isn't about charisma or experience or even who people like more. It's about Electoral College math.

Look at the electoral college map from 2004, and ask: Which states did Kerry win that Hillary would lose, even against McCain? Answer: none. Hillary runs, and she's instantly within 20 or so electoral votes of the White House. In a moment when Ohio's GOP apparatus has imploded and the Rocky Mountain states are trending Democrat, however temporarily, this gives her a very, very good shot at the presidency.

You can't say the same about Obama. Outside the Northeast, California, and maybe Illinois, he'd have to fight for every state.

[Ramo]

That's not at all reflected in current polling. Rasmussen and Survey USA have released a bunch of state polling that point to Obama getting an electoral college victory. That's reflected in the national polls, where McCain's lead over Obama has reversed over the past year. And it's worth pointing out that Clinton tends to do worse.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Ramo
That's not at all reflected in current polling. Rasmussen and Survey USA have released a bunch of state polling that point to Obama getting an electoral college victory. That's reflected in the national polls, where McCain's lead over Obama has reversed over the past year. And it's worth pointing out that Clinton tends to do worse.

Of course it is, because a phenomenal surge made him the front-runner in the one and only primary contest that's still going on; i.e. he's currently getting the lion's share of media attention, most of it positive. Now isn't the exactly the best time to forecast his long-term prospects when he hasn't even been on the receiving end of the GOP's mudslinging machine yet, and when the vast majority of the public doesn't know a damn thing about him other than the fact that his dazzling oratory tends to make them feel warm and fuzzy inside. You can't seriously suggest that the people in those polls have had anywhere near as thorough an introduction to the candidates as voters in the general election.

[Kidlicious]

I think whoever would be the best president has to stand for something. Nothing hurts a party more than electing a jackass like Bush.

[Ramo]

You can't seriously suggest that the people in those polls have had anywhere near as thorough an introduction to the candidates as voters in the general election.

I'm not sure on what basis you're making your claims. That's a rather bizarre argument you're trying to make...

As far as what I predicted, I was saying that Obama's numbers would look better as the race proceeds, and he introduces himself to the voters. I think my position is borne out better than yours...

Your attitude, incidentally, is radically different from the one you espoused last year. You were saying that Obama's numbers from almost two years before the general election matter, but the ones 9 months before don't?

[onodera]

Damn you and your necromancy!
I spent several minutes of my precious life going at the things you wrote. Only when I saw the Rudy tied with McCain post did I suspect the foul act of necromancy.