The College Football Thread 2006

[Drake Tungsten]

If I were the god of football, I would decree that no one could bring up the idea of a college football playoff ever again. We understand that you guys want to destroy college football, ok? Thanks for the input, but you don't need to repeat it ad nauseum. It's just not going to happen...

[SlowwHand]

Pro, High School, Jr. High, Pee Wee League all have them. All sports.
College football is weird.

[Drake Tungsten]

College football is weird.

And more fun to watch than any of the others because of it.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
If I were the god of football, I would decree that no one could bring up the idea of a college football playoff ever again. We understand that you guys want to destroy college football, ok? Thanks for the input, but you don't need to repeat it ad nauseum. It's just not going to happen...

College football is a sideline to College. If you want it to be a professional feeder system sort of thing, then ... make a professional feeder system. Three years of "Football College" and you get a degree in Football, and can also earn if desired a second in Sales, Sports Medicine, Sports Journalism, etc.

The fact that College Football has become practically a professional sport, is baloney and a horrible desecration of College Football. The day they took away the Rose Bowl from the Big 10 (even one year out of four) I nearly cried. College football should be about tradition and sportsmanship, not championships and money.

If the NCAA were doing its job, it would have signed a contract with ABC or whatever that allowed all games broadcast, and didn't give schools more or less money for being better at the game.

[SlowwHand]

College is already jaded. It has been for a long time.

High school.

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by snoopy369




College football is a sideline to College. If you want it to be a professional feeder system sort of thing, then ... make a professional feeder system. Three years of "Football College" and you get a degree in Football, and can also earn if desired a second in Sales, Sports Medicine, Sports Journalism, etc.

The fact that College Football has become practically a professional sport, is baloney and a horrible desecration of College Football. The day they took away the Rose Bowl from the Big 10 (even one year out of four) I nearly cried. College football should be about tradition and sportsmanship, not championships and money.

If the NCAA were doing its job, it would have signed a contract with ABC or whatever that allowed all games broadcast, and didn't give schools more or less money for being better at the game.

Then I take it you don't approve of College basketball, baseball, hockey, volleyball etc etc because they all have playoffs.

You also must not approve of all other levels of college football - I-AA II and III and NAIA because they all have playoffs.

You also must not approve of high school football, middle school football, little league football because they all have playoffs.

Playoffs have nothing to do with academics. But they are the only tfair way to decide a league champion.

[Drake Tungsten]

Only people who live in Texas are bored enough to enjoy watching high school football...

[DanS]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
Pro, High School, Jr. High, Pee Wee League all have them. All sports.
College football is weird.

Well, college football preceded all of them in the States except baseball.

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by DanS


Well, college football preceded all of them except professional baseball and maybe YMCA-league or whatever basketball.

The first college football was played by Ivy League teams. The Ivy league is in I-AA which has playoffs. So if your point is that we want to be like the oldest of the group than you support playoffs for college football.

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Only people who live in Texas are bored enough to enjoy watching high school football...

We love it.

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


We love it.

I hear High School football is religion where you guys are. Don't you guys have stadiums that seat 30,000 or something for high school games?

[DanS]

DD: I cross-edited you. Basketball was later.

[TCO]

I've gotten interested in this year's college football and followed it more then previous years. (When did BYU leave the WAC?) Anyhow, I did some analysis. You guys follow sports a lot more then I do, so please correct any innacuracies.

Process

I assert that we only need to worry about teams with zero or one loss. This is what I call "the pool". Sorry, I know that there are some teams that have 2 losses, but are higher ranked then some with 1 or 0. But I'm very partial to absolute won/loss rather then ranking, even for slubby WAC/MAC teams. There are four teams with zero losses: (in rank order) OSU, UM, RUTG, and BOISE. There are eight teams with one loss: (in rank order) UF, USC, ARK, ND, WVU, LOUIS, WISC, and WAKE.

NO-LOSS TEAMS:

OSU (#1) and UM (#2) play each other this week. OSU seems reasonable to favor based on rank and home field, but the outcome could go either way. With no other games remaining, one of the two will fall to one loss, one will remain undefeated at the end of the regular season.

RUTG (#7) plays SYR and WVU (a one loss team), while BOISE (#13) plays UTAH ST and NEVADA.

RUTG should clear the decks with SYR without a problem, but WVU will be an even match. Thus we will likely either have RUTG undefeated (and if so seriously in the hunt to play the UM/OSU winner) with WVU eliminated from the chase...or we will have RUTG down to one loss with WVU likely (but not definitely, see below) also at one loss. If so, WVU would have priority over RUTG based on the recent head to head battle for a shot in the championship.

Neither of BOISE's opponents are teams that I have any feel for. Based on records, I would expect BOISE to be favored in both battles, but with some chance for a loss with NEVADA. Net/net: it is more likely then not that BOISE finishes out undefeated. As such, they might be expected to have a shot at the championship. However, it is unlikely that they would pass any of the other one loss teams for a shot, given they are a WAC team. Their hopes to be in the title game would seem to need to depend on every conceiveable one loss team losing an additional game, save teams like WISC or maybe LOUIS. WAKE although lower ranked now, would end up higher if they win out their very hard remaining schedule. In addition, the killer problem might be the attractiveness of a UM/OSU rematch over letting an undefeated WAC team into the BCS title game. Even convincingly winning BOISE's bowl game (if not the championship) would be unlikely to let them get the #1 at the end of the season as the defeater of the OSU/UM survivor (in the championship) would likely look better even with a loss. Actually, this year, it is very unlikely that any champion could come outside the BCS champion game.

ONE LOSS TEAMS:

UF (#3) has three remaining games, W CAR, FSU and the SEC playoff. I've never heard of W CAR (late homecoming?), so they should be mincemeat. FSU is having an off-year, but is a perennial powerhouse and a rival, so while UF will definitely be favored, the result is not certain. In the SEC playoff, UF will likely face ARK (a one losser) with a small chance of facing LSU. UF will be favored, but the game will be strongly competetive. Net net: decent chance that UF goes into the bowls with only one loss, but also a decent chance that they get an additional loss. If they do finish out, they have a great argument for being in the title game.

USC (#4) has a brute of a remaining schedule versus CAL, ND (a one losser), and then UCLA. They should be favored in each match, but CAL and ND will be near even-up contests. UCLA should be less of a test (they are 5-5), but any PAC-10 team can be competitive and the two contestants have cross-town rivalry in the mix. If USC wins out, they also have a credible argument to be near the front of the line. Given the number of competetive games, it seems less then 50% likely that USC emerges unscathed.

ARK (#5) has remaining contests with MSU and LSU. Unless they lose 2, they will beat LSU out for the SEC playoff slot which will be against UF. Based on rankings and record, the MSU game should be strongly favored for ARK, but any SEC team other then VANDY needs to be taken seriously. The LSU game will be a real battle where ARK is slightly favored. The UF playoff will also be a real battle, with ARK the slight underdog. The game with UF is certain to eliminate at least one one-loss team, even if both UF and ARK go in with no additional losses, so this will help to reduce some of the argument going into the BCS game. If ARK wins out, they have a strong argument for consideration in the big game, based on their tough schedule.

ND (#6) has remaining contests against ARMY and USC. ARMY should be a gimme, with USC a battle where ND is a slight underdog. This battle will serve to eliminate one one-losser if both participants go in as such. If ND wins out, they have a reasonable argument for inclusion in the big game. ARMY and AIR FORCE are not strong teams on their schedule, but most teams have a couple weak opponents (including the SEC teams). They have 3 contests against ranked teams, with the rest of the schedule being against teams expected to be reasonable (GA TECH, UNC...even NAVY lately).

WVU (#8) has remaining contests against S FL (a gimme) and then against RUTG. RUTG will be a real battle and will either reduce WVU from the pool or reduce RUTG to a one-losser. Either loser of that contest should be expected to be out of BCS champion contention (even a one-loss RUTG) based on the moderately easier Big East schedule. If they win out, WVU could be in contention for the BCS slot, but would need to depend on the higher ranked one-lossers losing a game and on voters not wanting to see a BCS rematch. Given that the BCS game is not done by a selection by humans, but by a computerized amalgam, WVUs hopes are likely to go unrequited.

LOUIS (10) has PITT and UCONN remaining. They will be well-favored in both, with PITT being decent competition and UCONN a gimme. If they win out, they would need to depend on the same basic (unlikely) hopes as WVU. Assuming WVU beats RUTG, LOUIS might have some hope to be higher ranked then WVU, despite current rankings given the head to head battle that LOUIS won. This is irrelevant, though. Neither WVU or LOUIS can seriously be in the battle.

WISC (12) has one remaining game with BUFF. Never heard of that school and based on their record, they look like another late season homecoming game. WISC plays in a generally good conference but has only one game versus a ranked team, UM, which they lost. As such, even finishing out with their very likely one loss final season record is unlikely to get them into the big game.

WAKE (14) has remaining games against VT, UMD and then (assuming they win versus UMD) an ACC playoff. All are likely to be very tough games for WAKE (will be against ranked teams), with the team either evenly matched or perhaps a "line" underdog. Given that, it is very unlikely WAKE finishes out as a one-losser. If they do win out, the remaining 3 tough games as well as 2 previous games versus ranked opponents (one won) and playing in an overall good conference, should play well in WAKE's favor. In they unlikely event that they win out, WAKE should be expected to make a large jump in the rankings and be taken very seriously as a prospect for the big game.

KEY DECISIONAL GAMES:

Any remaining game can affect the final results, but the games where teams in the pool meet are certain to affect the pool. These games include (with comments):
A. UM/USC: the biggie in the whole situation, but given that both are undefeated, both will remain in the pool. The winner is certain to go to the big dance. The loser could seriously also end up there.
B. RUTG/WVU: Possible that both teams remain in the pool if RUTG loses. But of the two teams only RUTG has a real stake to go to the big game and it depends on them staying undefeated.
C. SEC playoff: In this game, UF will definitely be one contender (Iikely still at one loss only). The opponent will likely be ARK, but LSU may make it in there. The game makes it so that both ARK and UF can not be in the pool at the end of the season, although ARK may get bumped out earlier.
D. USC/ND will eliminate one of these teams. USC faces other tough tests as well. ND should go in with one loss only.

OTHER KEY GAMES:

These games won't have a definite affect on the pool teams, but have reasonable uncertainty as the pool team faces a ranked opponent. In all cases, the pool team is likely to be favored, but with a small line only:

A. USC/CAL
B. ARK/LSU
C. WAKE/VT
D. WAKE/MD
E. ACC playoff

FINAL POOL SITUATION:

There will be at least one undefeated team and no more then 3, given the UM/OSU season-ending battle. BOISE is likely to finish out unbeaten. RUTG's chances are a coin-toss. So we are looking at about 2.5 undefeated teams going into the bowls. However only the UM/OSU survivor and RUTG are relevant, so that is about 1.5 relevant undefeated teams.

With the one-lossers, the SEC battle and the USC/ND game must reduce the pool size by two teams. The UM/OSU game will add one one-losser for sure. The RUTG/WVU game could either reduce the pool size by one if RUTG wins or possible increase it by one if RUTG loses and as expected beats SYR. Thus the maximum number of one-lossers at the end of the season is eight (nine if Boise dropped down as well.) The minimum number of one-lossers is one (the UM/OSU loser).

Building up the number of one-lossers in likelihood, starting from seven (eight now minus USC/ND loser and ARK/UF loser, plus OSU/UM loser).
RUTG/WVU: could swing any way (+1, 0 or -1), so figure that averages to no change to number of one-lossers.
BOISE: wins out (no change)
LOUIS: wins out, no change
WISC: wins out, no change
USC: add a 50% chance of an additional elimination coming from USC's schedule. (-0.5)
UF/ARK: add a 50% chance of an additional elimination based on the LSU battle. (-0.5)
WAKE: near a lock to lose another from their tough schedule: (-1.0)
Total: 7 -2 = 5 one-lossers remaining in the pool. Of these, the irrelevant ones are WISC and LOUIS. The OSU/UM loser is relevant as are one-loss survivors of the ND/USC, and UF/ARK pairings.

So the end result, should be something like this. The OSU/UM victor is in for sure. The other slot will be likely be an argument among: the UM/OSU loser, one of ND/USC and one of UF/ARK, and possibly an undefeated RUTG.

AFTER THE BOWLS CHAMPION SCENARIOS:

Things will be simple if the OSU/UM victor wins the BCS bowl game as well: game, set, match. Another clear-cut situation would be if RUTG wins out, gets invited to the BCS game and beats the big ten opponent there. If the OSU/UM victor loses in the BCS game to a one-losser team, that team will likely be crowned #1 in all polls (even with a loss and other one-loss finishers). But this is not certain. One can imagine debates and even split championships, if the BCS game is close and a non-invited USC/ND/UF defeats a credible opponent (perhaps one of the same group) overwhelmingly.

Another bizarre situation could occur if the BCS game ends up being the OSU/UM game repeated and the result is a reverse of the previous game. In that case, do you give it to one of the two (and perhaps not the BCS winner) or do you let some other team get credit for the #1 that wasn't even in the big game. Perhaps even a spurned RUTG that wins out in a non-BCS championship bowl while all other teams in the country get a loss.

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Deity Dude


I hear High School football is religion where you guys are. Don't you guys have stadiums that seat 30,000 or something for high school games?

Some.

[SlowwHand]

Updated: Nov. 13, 2006

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2627844