The College Football Thread 2006

[Imran Siddiqui]

A lot of teams' who were outside the top 8 hopes for the title are a lot higher than last week (including Rutgers & Arkansas)

[DanS]

I crossedited you with regard to Rutgers and Arkansas. We are in agreement on them, I think. OSU or Michigan loses big. Cal beats USC. USC beats Notre Dame. Florida loses in the SEC title game to Arkansas.

It's then a shootout between Arkansas and Rutgers.

[Imran Siddiqui]

In that case, Arkansas wins over Rutgers, IMO. Arkansas' beating of LSU and Florida would boost its computer rankings from 9th and would firmly put them in at #2 in both polls (if the scenario posted wins out). Rutgers would stay #2 in the computer poll but would be #3 in both the Harris and Coaches and thus Arkansas would barely win out.

[rah]

I'm still convinced that if Mich just eaks out a win at home, that OSU shouldn't drop lower than 2.

[DanS]

I think the human polls will depend on how badly Arkansas beats Fla and Rutgers beats WVa. But in either event, Rutgers would have a lock on the computer #2.

[DanS]

Originally posted by rah
I'm still convinced that if Mich just eaks out a win at home, that OSU shouldn't drop lower than 2.

It's in the 'shoe this year.

[rah]

Aw, thought it was at Mich.

OK, no problem, then if OSU just eaks out a win at home........

[mrmitchell]

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=2650348

"Hog Wild! Feral Pigs Invade Texas"

DEL RIO, Texas, Nov. 13, 2006 — A million dangerous pigs are roaming Texas soil, challenging farmers and devouring their crops.

These animals have ravenous appetites and no natural predator in Texas. With the feral pig population exploding, game wardens are begging hunters to go after the wild animals.

"I often tell people to think of a feral hog as a four-legged fire ant," said Billy Higginbotham of the Texas Extension Cooperative, which offers Texas A&M research to state residents. "We are not going to eradicate them; what our hope is that we can reduce their population to reduce damage."

That damage is costing farmers $50 million a year, and one farmer said his attempts to keep them out failed. "In my sweet potato patch last year, I bought an electric fence [and] it has no effect on them," said farmer Lemar Bass.

"There are only two types of landowners in the state of Texas — those that have feral hogs and those that are about to have feral hogs," Higginbotham said.

"If it has a calorie, they will eat it," added hunter Bob Richardson.

Hunting Season

The Spanish conquistador Hernando de Soto brought the hogs to America in 1539 and now they are eating crops, chicken and sheep.

With game wardens asking hunters to target the feral pigs, hundreds of thousands of sportsmen are flocking to Texas, thrilled at the chance to bag the big one.

"There is some mystique about them; you know, he is called 'the poor man's grisly bear' and there is a certain amount of danger hunting them," said hunting lodge owner Maurice Chambers.

But not all are convinced this approach will work. "You are not going to control the feral hog population by hunting — they are smart," Higginbotham said.

"The wild hog just has the better intelligence of any wild animal living — they are just very brilliant animals," Chambers said.

That is, brilliant and unfettered as they chomp their way across the Lone Star State.

[reismark]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
IIRC, Cal was BCS bowl eligible and that was the year where there was a big hubbub because Texas was chosen as an at large even though Cal was ranked higher in both human polls.

Yes, but Texas was higher-ranked in the BCS, and Texas would have been shut out of the BCS if the Rose had opted for Cal, which would have been (rightly) perceived as unfair to the Longhorns. If both Cal & Texas had gotten BCS slots, the Rose surely would've opted for Cal, but given that it was one or the other, they sorta had to go for the higher-ranked team.

In the end, the system was justified because Texas beat Michigan behind Vince Young and Cal struggled to fend off BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl.

[reismark]

THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 5

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking. For the full listing, check ESPN, which provides a more detailed breakdown than the "official" listing at FOX Sports.

1. Ohio State [1, 1, 3]
2. Michigan [2, 2, 1]
3. Southern California [3, 4, 4] (+4)
4. Florida [4, 3, 6]
5. Notre Dame [5, 5, 5] (+4)
6. Rutgers [7, 8, 2] (+7)
7. Arkansas [6, 6, 9] (+4)
8. West Virginia [8, 7, 11] (+2)
9. Wisconsin [11, 10, 8] (+6)
10. Louisville [10, 12, 7] (-7)
11. Louisiana State [9, 9, 13] (+1)
12. Boise State [13, 13, 10] (+2)
13. Texas [12, 11, 16] (-8)
14. Auburn [15, 15, 14] (-8)
15. California-Berkeley [17, 17, 12] (-7)
16. Wake Forest [14, 14, 17] (+3)

Well, as you'd expect with all the upsets in the middle of the top 10 this week, a lot of reshuffling happened in the rankings. The big winner (much to my consternation) was USC, which reclaimed the #3 ranking it lost only two weeks ago in a not-so-upset loss to Oregon State, and is in prime position to move to #2 next week pending how The Game plays out this weekend. My feelings about USC are well-documented, so I'll just move right on past them...

While I'm glad to see Rutgers at #6 given it's where I placed them in my own personal rankings once the weekend was over, I'm utterly befuddled to see Arkansas ranked behind them. Arkansas absolutely stomped a good Tennessee team on national television and is clearly the hottest team in the land right now, and yet Rutgers saw a much bigger bounce in the rankings than the Razorbacks did (which probably had a lot to do with the computers' high opinion of Rutgers even prior to the win over Louisville). It's going to be up to the human polls to provide further lift to Rutgers until the trip to West Virginia, given they've got two relatively weak games to get through before then. Arkansas is in the same boat this week, but then they get LSU at home, and a dominant win would be a huge boon to the Razorbacks' title hopes.

GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK
Well, duh. Michigan at Ohio State (Saturday, 3:30 PM). It's called The Game for a reason. Do I need to draw you a diagram? Other games of interest: California-Berkley at Southern California (Saturday, 8:00 PM) is the de-facto Pac-10 Championship Game, is key to USC's national title hopes, and will serve in many respects as a referendum on just who the real Trojans are. Finally, Maryland at Boston College (Saturday, 12:00 PM), while lacking any direct BCS implications, will go a long way towards clearing the currently very muddy picture in the ACC Atlantic, and should be a well-played contest between two teams that will leave everything out on the field.

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Teams with an equal number of losses are considered to be in the same tier. (This means that a 3-0 record in conference play would be just as good as a 5-0 record and better than a 4-1 record for the purposes of projections.) Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths (for conferences that do not have title games) or bids to conference title games. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, or in the instance where the two teams projected to meet for a conference title have the same record in conference play, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

MAJOR CONFERENCES
ACC: Georgia Tech (def. Maryland)
Big East: Rutgers
Big Ten: Michigan
Big 12: Texas (def. Nebraska)
Pac-10: Southern California
SEC: Arkansas (def. Florida)

OTHER BIDS
Non-BCS Conference Auto Bid: Boise State (WAC; #12)
Other Auto Bids: Ohio State (Big Ten; #1), Notre Dame (Independent; #5), Florida (SEC; #4 with no SEC rep in title game)
At-Large Entries: No Slots Left

The team at the top of the list praying that The Game turns out to be a blowout win for Ohio State is Wisconsin. Right now, they're clearly on the outside looking in given the BCS's rules limiting a conference to two entries, but if the Wolverines lose real bad, there's an *outside* chance the Badgers might be able to pass them. It's going to be tough since Wisconsin is closing with an incredibly weak opponent (Buffalo), and everything's got to go just right for them... but the chance is still there. I'd only call it about 7%, however.

Boise State moves up into official lock status with its escape over San Jose State this week (at #12, they'd be in no matter what happens, provided they can stay there). Broncos fans will be holding their collective breath, however, because their champion thoroughbred is lame (superstar RB Ian Johnson, as of Tuesday, was still in the hospital being treated for a partially collapsed lung) - they will need him to see this through and if they slip up even once, the dream dies.

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
National Championship Game: Ohio State v. Michigan
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech v. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas v. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas v. Rutgers

Big Ten auto-entry Ohio State & Big Ten champion Michigan are automatically placed into the National Championship Game due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. Pac-10 champion Southern California is placed into the Rose Bowl, SEC champion Arkansas is placed into the Sugar Bowl, ACC champion Georgia Tech is placed into the Orange Bowl, and Big 12 champion Texas is placed into the Fiesta Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins.

Since the Rose Bowl loses one of its conference champions to the title game, it gets to replace that team before the other bowls make their selections. It chooses independent auto-entry Notre Dame to be its second representative. (The Rose Bowl, according to BCS by-laws, gets top priority over all BCS games other than the National Championship Game in filling its vacancies.)

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's proximity to the National Championship Game in scheduling, with games scheduled nearer to the Championship Game receiving higher priority. Based on this, the BCS has established the following priority order for this year's bowls:

1. Sugar Bowl
2. Orange Bowl
3. Fiesta Bowl

The new BCS by-laws do not impose restrictions on selecting teams for final allocations in the vein like "conference champions cannot be listed last" as in previous years. Hence, it is prudent to presume that the remaining selections will be made in order of BCS rankings (with exceptions made where needed to avoid matching teams from the same conference against each other).This results in Big East champion Rutgers being selected by the Sugar Bowl despite Florida having a higher BCS ranking (since if Florida were to be selected, it would create a rematch of the SEC championship game). As a result, SEC auto-entry Florida is selected by the Orange Bowl instead, and finally, WAC auto-entry Boise State is selected by the Fiesta Bowl.

Note that for obvious reasons, no shifts would be made to change the National Championship Game from matching the #1 and #2 ranked teams, even if (as projected) it involves the meeting of two teams from the same conference.

[Drake Tungsten]

While I'm glad to see Rutgers at #6 given it's where I placed them in my own personal rankings once the weekend was over, I'm utterly befuddled to see Arkansas ranked behind them. Arkansas absolutely stomped a good Tennessee team on national television and is clearly the hottest team in the land right now, and yet Rutgers saw a much bigger bounce in the rankings than the Razorbacks did (which probably had a lot to do with the computers' high opinion of Rutgers even prior to the win over Louisville).

Why would Arkansas be in front of Rutgers? Arkansas has one loss (and a bad one at that, to a team you don't seem to think is any good), while Rutgers is undefeated. Rutgers also beat a good team on national TV this week, a Louisville squad that had a better record than Tennessee, was ranked higher than Tennessee and was actually playing with its starting quarterback (unlike Tennessee). The fact that Rutgers needed the computers to put them over Arkansas in the first place is the real head-scratcher...

[reismark]

I consider the Arkansas loss to USC a mulligan for two major reasons: 1) It was the first game of the season for both teams; 2) The teams are both drastically different in many more divergent ways now than they were then (especially Arkansas, whose focal points on offense were either on the bench or non-existant in the USC game). Plus, while Rutgers may be undefeated, Arkansas has played a somewhat tougher schedule and done almost as well.

I'm not worried for Arkansas though, because they have two more big opportunities to prove their worth, with the LSU game next week and then the SEC championship game against Florida (all but a lock now). Assuming Rutgers runs the table, they're going to be the team we complain about having a disservice done to them in the end, because Arkansas WILL pass them if everything goes the Razorbacks' way.

[DanS]

Plus, while Rutgers may be undefeated, Arkansas has played a somewhat tougher schedule

Highly debatable.

Arkansas is good only in relation to the rest of the offensively-deceased SEC. They have a consistent running game, which win more often than not under such circumstances.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think that the bowls would step in to try to prevent a rematch of a regular season game, so I don't think Notre Dame would play Southern Cal or Michigan in a bowl. They try their damnest to prevent such a thing and they are allowed to according to selection rules.

[Drake Tungsten]

I consider the Arkansas loss to USC a mulligan for two major reasons

A loss is still a loss.

Plus, while Rutgers may be undefeated, Arkansas has played a somewhat tougher schedule

No, they haven't. Here's the SOS rankings...

NCAA

Rutgers - 37th
Arkansas - 55th

CBS Sportline

Rutgers - 31st
Arkansas - 48th

Sagarin

Rutgers - 66th
Arkansas - 81st

Highly debatable.

It's hardly debatable. Rutgers clearly has the tougher schedule...