Where Have the Hurricanes Gone?

[Grandpa Troll]

Originally posted by Solly




There's always an excuse isn't there?

We will take any excuse, yes indeedy

[Solly]

Originally posted by Grandpa Troll


We will take any excuse, yes indeedy

Here's one for you: global warming does not increase hurricanes.

[Grandpa Troll]

Originally posted by Solly


Here's one for you: global warming does not increase hurricanes.

Could not speak about this, I only know that for all the knowledge people claim to have, not one has found a way to stem the death and destruction of landfalling hurricanes.

Sure we can predict and prognostigate, but prevention, for the meantime, is not available.

Gramps

[Solly]

Well of course, even by reducing our CO2 we're not going to the have the world bathed in temperate conditions, whatever the IPCC would have you believe.

[Berzerker]

Lots of wind sheer inhibiting formation of cyclones. Probably another El Nino in the making.

Yeah, we seem to be getting that quite a bit lately... I thought El Nino was cyclical with La Nina's following El Nino's. Could it be that a warmer world means warmer ocean waters, including warmer waters in the east Pacific that give rise to the effects of El Nino? Its my theory that the warmer the world is, and we're far from the warmth I'm thinking of, the less force driving the dispersion of heat away from the equator. Really violent storms are fueled by the contrast between warm and cold, the reason hurricanes have trouble forming is not wind shear (just my speculation), its that the winds from the east Pacific are warmer than the colder air masses that usually come down off the Rockies. Its the same phenomenon with tornadoes, we get hit hardest when warm moist air from the Gulf runs into cold air masses coming down off the Rockies. Once the northern latitudes warm up, tornado activity lessens. As they cool down, we get our second tornado season, much less severe than the spring onslaught. You can see how the transition zone in which tornadoes occur migrates north and then south with the seasons.

[Barnabas]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


Lots of wind sheer inhibiting formation of cyclones. Probably another El Nino in the making.

That doesnt mean much, whenever there is not an el niño, el niño is in the making

edit: What berzeker said

[Barnabas]

What worries me about global warming is water supply for people who live in dry places, and get their water from rivers which are born in glaciers in the mountains, and of course, people who live in low place on the coast will be screwed.

In Bolivia we dont have a Coastline (damn you Chile ;P ) but the water issue is a serious problem

[Berzerker]

Yup, I heard they're worried about the ice melting in the Andes. But a warmer world means more rainfall over all, and thats why we may not see a rise in sea levels. The hydro cycle in a warmer world transports water inland and into the mountains at a higher rate than a cooler world. As sea ice melts, the sea levels would actually drop a bit, This would be countered by the melting of land based ice so levels may not change much at all.

[chequita guevara]

A warmer world could mean damn near anything, since weather is a chaotic system. It could mean less hurricanes if it means more frequent el niños and la niñas.

It will not mean less simply because Northern waters get warmer. That would mean that the storms would stay active further north. The temperature differential that causes the storms is not between Northern and Southern waters, but between warmer water and colder air.

[Berzerker]

How would a warmer world produce more La Ninas?

The temperature differential that causes the storms is not between Northern and Southern waters, but between warmer water and colder air.

Hurricanes form because of warm moist air rising from evaporating seas into colder dry air, the water temp is not as important (were ice age seas really that warm?) as the conflict between disparate air masses. Thats why El Ninos inhibit hurricane production, warm moist air from the Pacific travels ~east over the Gulf while the colder dry air from North America is cut off from reaching the region of hurricane generation. We may see plenty of storms forming in the Atlantic and southern Gulf but they cant be sustained into the northern Gulf very well with the air from El Ninos cutting across their path.

I believe its the Jet Stream that really drives this, the flow of air from west to east (El Nino) reduces the impact of cold dry air from North America meeting Gulf air. During La Ninas the Jet stream splits in two with a weaker west-east flow and a stronger wave pattern reflected in more cold dry air coming down the Rockies. Here in Kansas we have our worst winters during La Ninas because we get hit with that Rocky Mtn current, during El Ninos our winters are mild.