NHL Offseason: All 10 weeks of it

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Asher

Depends on your perspective. I don't look at this year-by-year, I look at building a core team.

A guy like Pronger, who performed very well in the playoffs, is not worth the $6.5M he gets a year, nor is he worth a long-term contract as he's getting up there in years.

As a GM, I would value a player like trading for Phaneuf more than I would trading for Pronger. If I needed a rental for a cup run, Pronger would be up there perhaps...but he's not someone I'd want to build a team around.

I look at thing from long-term perspectives. I'd value a player like Ovechkin or Crosby more than Sakic, as well. Once hockey players are over 32, they're going downhill and are more prone to injury, they're not likely to improve, and they're frankly starting to slow down. Pronger and McCabe are both very highly-regarded defencemen around the NHL, but frankly I wouldn't want either of them on my team. Give me young, fast talent.

IMO, too many GMs spend way too much time and money on old guys who are known to be good instead of investing the time into young guys who can be great.

Example? Carolina-Toronto. Carolina offloaded Jeff O'Neil, they then went out and signed Whitney, Recchi, and someone else... Cullen maybe? with the same salary money.

It's a funny thing that you mentioned Carolina.
Mark Recchi, 38
Glen Wesley, 37
Doug Weight, 35
Rod Brind'Amour, 36, just resigned for 5 years
Bret Hedican, 35
Ray Whitney, 34
Aaron Ward, 33
Frantisek Kaberle, 32
Cory Stillman, 32
Kevyn Adams, 31

I'd say a 32 year old who can dominate games is a bit away from being unable to win.

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Asher
As a GM, I would value a player like trading for Phaneuf more than I would trading for Pronger. If I needed a rental for a cup run, Pronger would be up there perhaps...but he's not someone I'd want to build a team around.

That's why you'd be a terrible GM. A good rookie season doesn't mean a player's going to perennially be a top five player at his position. The highest performing rookies often regress to the mean the following season.

If you'd value Phaneuf over Pronger, I'd hate to see what you'd have given up for Teemu Selanne after his rookie season.

[Asher]

Pronger only dominates games because he's 10x better than all of the other defencemen around him, who are laughably bland and blend in with the advertisements on the boards.

It's not so much the age of the players in this case, it's the ego that goes along with it. So I guess it was incorrect of me to go off on the age aspect alone.

A lot of it has to do with being overvalued. Pronger is absolutely one such defenceman. I do not think he's worth $6.5M for 5 years. At all. In fact, during the regular season Pronger didn't actually play that well at all. He as passable, to be sure, and obviously Edmonton's best defenceman...But compared to other top defencemen, such as Lidstrom and Redden, he wasn't all that great. In fact, the guy seemed to disappear every time he played against Calgary -- lord knows why. Maybe he doesn't like the physical play on his old body.

And you're wrong, Weight didn't sign for 5 years, that was Brind'Amour -- and it's something I find to be absolutely ridiculous. It will burn them. Tampa did a similar thing with Andreychuk after they won the cup with him, too.

I fully predict that next year, Phaneuf will outscore Pronger once again, Phaneuf will lead Pronger in hits once again, and Phaneuf will lead Pronger in +/- once again. And for a fraction of the salary.

You can talk him up all you want (and you'll play down his departure when he ends up traded), but he's getting paid too much. You know who else is getting paid too much? Iginla -- especially for his production last season.

[Ninot]

So it's not even July and Calgary is planning the parade route?

Unsure if I like what Gainey did today, but he didn't have much to work with. July should be an interesting month.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Jaguar
That's why you'd be a terrible GM. A good rookie season doesn't mean a player's going to perennially be a top five player at his position. The highest performing rookies often regress to the mean the following season.

If you'd value Phaneuf over Pronger, I'd hate to see what you'd have given up for Teemu Selanne after his rookie season.

Give him the proper conditions, and Selanne is a monster.

And I wouldn't trade for anyone who I considered to be overvalued. After Selanne's outstanding season, you have to know he's going to be overvalued.

You're getting a bit ahead of yourself. I haven't said a damn thing about giving up a lot for somebody after a hot rookie season.

If given the choice between Pronger and Phaneuf for my hockey club, I'd definitely go Phaneuf. Similarly, given the choice between Crosby and Sakic for my club, I'll go Crosby.

There's a lot to be said of the talent that a true hockey fan can recognize in many of these players. I'd rather take a younger player at a lower cost that will likely go up in terms of productivity than take an older player at a higher cost that will likely go down in terms of productivity.

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Asher
And I wouldn't trade for anyone who I considered to be overvalued. After Selanne's outstanding season, you have to know he's going to be overvalued.

If Phaneuf's rookie season was outstanding, then I guess I know he's going to be overvalued.

I wonder who is overvaluing him.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Asher
I fully predict that next year, Phaneuf will outscore Pronger once again, Phaneuf will lead Pronger in hits once again, and Phaneuf will lead Pronger in +/- once again. And for a fraction of the salary.

Excuse me?

Pronger had 56 point, +2. Phaneuf had 49 points, +5.

A difference of 3 +/- for dmen is meaningless. Who had more points?

Now look at the playoffs. Pronger is third in scoring. In the league. Any position.

You think there might be a reason he and Pisani were the CS candidates from our side?

You can talk him up all you want (and you'll play down his departure when he ends up traded), but he's getting paid too much. You know who else is getting paid too much? Iginla -- especially for his production last season.

I actually agree in that I have a hard time seeing any player being worth 6.5 or 7 million, given the cap. Maybe Gretzky, or Messier in his prime, or Orr, or... but there's no way there are 30 all-time, first-team all stars in the league right now (1 per team).

Problem is that how GMs value players and how you or I look at the cap are not the same things. I'll back the GMs who got to the finals over you or I though.

Oh, and no I won't play down Pronger's departure when he leaves. He'll leave a hell of a big hole for Lowe to fill. A good dman and a top forward only begin to fill it.

However, yes the sun will come up. The younger guys will be a year older and have some invaluable experience. Hopefully some of the UFAs will stay. In any case the Oilers are still going to be in tough to make the playoffs, just as about every team in our division will be with the current format.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ninot
Unsure if I like what Gainey did today, but he didn't have much to work with. July should be an interesting month.

I thought it was clever to trade down a few 1st picks and get an additional later round.

There was a whole lot of crap shoot after the first 10 or 12 picks (or less).

The Oiler scouts claim our 45th place pick was in our top 15.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by notyoueither
In all seriousness, TO still has Poggggge, so...

Exactly right.

Also, Toronto gets a strong goalie now, allthough I though Aubin did a great job in the stretch. Should be interesting to see which one gets the starting job.

[Asher]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Excuse me?

Pronger had 56 point, +2. Phaneuf had 49 points, +5.

Look at goals...when you have people like Smyth deflecting garbage goals as your main powerplay technique, it's not as impressive on Pronger. Look at Phaneuf's goals, namely PPG, compared to Pronger...

And now consider what kind of system Phaneuf scored those goals in (Sutter-style)...

[Asher]

Originally posted by Jaguar
If Phaneuf's rookie season was outstanding, then I guess I know he's going to be overvalued.

I wonder who is overvaluing him.

You guys seem to have a huge problem figuring out the difference of value in a monetary sense and value to the club in the long-term sense.

If I said Phaneuf should get a $6.5M salary/year for 5 years, yes I would be overvaluing him.

If I'm saying Phaneuf is an extremely promising defenceman (who has remained so for years, I watched him on the Hitmen WHL team before the Flames...his rookie year isn't an oddity, that's how the kid plays), then I'm not overvaluing him.

I think the better GMs find talented young guys and work them into their system, while the desperate GMs look for the old guys and try to buy a rental or six for the playoffs or for the next season. In that sense, I understand Pronger will be valued more in terms of salary, but Phaneuf is valued in the sense that you value your loved ones.

I can tell you right now, Phaneuf is one of the few players on Calgary (along with Iginla and Kipper) that Sutter will refuse to trade. That is high value.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Asher

Look at goals...when you have people like Smyth deflecting garbage goals as your main powerplay technique, it's not as impressive on Pronger. Look at Phaneuf's goals, namely PPG, compared to Pronger...

And now consider what kind of system Phaneuf scored those goals in (Sutter-style)...

One with not many goal scorers so Dion was encouraged to unload from the point?

Nice that you are ignoring that Pronger was third in playoff scorers.

[Asher]

Why would I ignore it, I explicitly mentioned his mediocre regular season play. And considering how many damn games the Oilers played (a franchise high and the most in the playoffs), and considering the goalies you played against in the first few rounds and their terrible sv%, it's really not all that impressive.

And Dion was encouraged to unload from the point because he's got a damn good shot. Are you saying Pronger wasn't encouraged to unload from the point?

Calgary's d-corps, btw, were one of the highest scoring d-corps in the league.

[cinch]

Leopold for Tanguay-- As much as I hate to say it, excellent trade for Calgary. Kudos to Sutter.

Demitra to the Wild-- Well, I guess Gaborik's not going anywhere. These guys should have some impressive Slovak chemistry, which could lead to Minnesota finally complementing their solid defensive play with some scoring prowess.

The NW is definitely going to be an amazingly tough division next year. I think the Oilers' best hopes for making the playoffs are either

(A) Vancouver loses Jovo and is unable to rejuvenate their D corps by October. Luongo plays amazingly, but the weakened Canucks play like the Panthers used to in front of him, resulting in loss after loss.

(B) Colorado's amazing ten-year run finally catches up with them. Sakic finally ages (not likely, I admit), while Theodore proves that his glory days really are over. Hejduk and Svatos are unable to carry the team (also unlikely). Still, in my opinion, the Avs've made some iffy trades in the recent past. Leopold for Tanguay, Aebischer for Theodore, and that terrible one from a few years ago: picking up Ossi Vaananen and Chris Gratton (ugh) in exchange for Derek Morris and Keith Ballard, two blue-chip D-men.

Well, it should be an interesting summer...

[Asher]

It turns out that the Prongers had sold their house and packed up their things before the end of the playoffs. Then they took off to Mexico, and had his agent tell Lowe the news.

What did you guys do to him? Maybe he didn't like playing the 30 minutes a game that everyone keeps bragging about...maybe he just hates the city...