Apparently Oil Peaked on December 16th 2005

[Asher]

Originally posted by Kidicious
I googled "expensive oil" and this is the first thing.

Shell, Exxon tap expensive oil sands & gas, oil reserves dwindle.

The cost of extracting oil from the oil sands is decreasing with regularity as technologies are improved and economies of scale kick in.

Add to the fact that there is zero risk factor in oil sands development compared to conventional oil exploration, and it's not too much more.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
Two things:



That means that they HAVNT switched over yet to the more expensive oil sands. If they had, they would be meeting reserves.

2. This is a result of higher oil prices, not a cause of it. They are investing into these new sands NOW because they know that prices will remain high for a long time. There is no evidence on this article that they are pumping significant amounts of oil that is increasing the price due to increasing production costs.

Also -- there is some technicality of the US stock exhanges which mean that oilsands quantities can generally not be considered part of reserves-- It has something to do with thew fact that its open pit mined instead of pumped or something-- I don't undertsand the details, I just know that most companies do not show oilsands finds as part of their reserves

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Asher

The cost of extracting oil from the oil sands is decreasing with regularity as technologies are improved and economies of scale kick in.

and with the same rergularity labour and service costs rise kicking the cost estimates all to heck

Originally posted by Asher



Add to the fact that there is zero risk factor in oil sands development compared to conventional oil exploration, and it's not too much more.

There is pretty much zero exploration risk, true. There is still a ton of execution risk. Right now the risk is to have an inability to find enough workers to build the facilities you need ( and the costs associated with that )

[Imran Siddiqui]

Has anyone seen Aggie since he got his butt kicked?

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Last Conformist
Perhaps relevantly, I saw last week that they had put up signs advertizing "bio-ethanol" at some local gas stations here. No idea what the prefix "bio-" is supposed to indicate - isn't, in practice, all ethanol biologically produced? - but I suppose it might be a sign of times to come.

It's pure marketing. All ethanol is biologically created though mostly it is mixed with a certain percentage of gasoline (15% up to 90% depending upon the country, the type of car, and performance needs). "Bio"-ethanol may mean that there is no gasoline or that the oil is produced from a nonfossil fuel source like thermal depolymerization but I doubt it. It is likely just marketing.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Look, and I think all here can agree with this, oil production costs have not increased since, say Jan 2004 when oil was at $35 a barrel. We can say this because these companies are rolling in profit (to the point where they are being accused of price gouging etc.) If a companies production costs were increasing at the same time, you wouldnt see such huge profits. (new revenues wiped out by increased costs)

Infact, we know that the cost for producing in Canada's oil sands have decreased from $18 a barrel to about $15 per barrel (according to CAPP), as production and technology has increased.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Has anyone seen Aggie since he got his butt kicked?

As if you'd be the one to judge that. Why don't you go back to defending crack whores or whatever it is that you do? As if it wasn't bad enough having Laurel and Hardy fill the thread with their guff, now you start.

This is the second time today you've wilfully misread my posts and retorted with retarded ****.

I was hoping for an interesting discussion. Alas, this is Apolyton.

But believeing the market and society will cope, is.

All the Peak OIl advocates I have read go on to predict carastophe

And all the market loons I have read on this seem to think that the market will miraculously enable us to change the laws of nature.

Whether the market will cope (in the normal sense of the word, and not the mentally defective meaning that economists assign to it) is also consistent with peak oil whatever happens.

Anyone who denies the basic peak oil theory is an idiot plain and simple. It's what happens with finite and desirable resources, all other things being equal (and the worthwhile dispute is about the latter part).

The only sensible points of dispute are whether we can actually work out when this will happen, or if it has already happened, and whether there is reasonable prospect of a replacement. Those are empirical questions which are worth discussing.

[Last Conformist]

So, why don't you, like, try and discuss those issues, instead of posting troll threads?

[Agathon]

So this is a troll thread?

The gay marriage thread is a troll thread.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

I deny peak oil theory, and here's why - there is no significant event that occurs when we have found over half of the worlds reserves. The only 'peak oil' that occured the day before the first oil well was dug, since at that time, we had the peak amount of oil in the ground, and it has been decreasing since.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by Agathon
So this is a troll thread?

Yup.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
Look, and I think all here can agree with this, oil production costs have not increased since, say Jan 2004 when oil was at $35 a barrel. We can say this because these companies are rolling in profit (to the point where they are being accused of price gouging etc.) If a companies production costs were increasing at the same time, you wouldnt see such huge profits. (new revenues wiped out by increased costs)

Infact, we know that the cost for producing in Canada's oil sands have decreased from $18 a barrel to about $15 per barrel (according to CAPP), as production and technology has increased.

It's supply and demand. Costs are the same but China, India, Latin America, the US, and eastern Europe keep growing so demand grows much faster then supply. Without conservation measures it will continue to grow faster then supply until the price reaches such a point that people begin switching to alternatives though those alternatives will take decades to create (I.E. build more mass transite, create more E85 filling stations & facilities to create E85, design and mass produce more efficent cars, etc...).

[Odin]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
I deny peak oil theory, and here's why - there is no significant event that occurs when we have found over half of the worlds reserves. The only 'peak oil' that occured the day before the first oil well was dug, since at that time, we had the peak amount of oil in the ground, and it has been decreasing since.

Peak oil is about production rates, not the total amount of oil. when half the oil in the world has ben extracted production rates will plateau for a few years and then start to decline.

[Last Conformist]

Obviously, rates will have to start to fall sooner or later, but that has no necessary relation to when the halfpoint is passed.

[KrazyHorse]

According to these nutters it does.

They've invented some stupid oversimplified "formula" to explain everything.