Apparently Oil Peaked on December 16th 2005

[Kontiki]

I'd rarely be one to come to Kid's defense, but I took that to mean that the global demand for oil is increasing, irrespective of price (rise of China and India, etc.). And, since the cheapest oil is running out, it's going to make oil even more expensive in the future.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
Are you telling me that oil is not a normal good? Are you telling me that it is a Giffen good?

It's normal. I really can't be bothered to address everything that you said, but the price is determined by the most inefficient producer (even it's trading price on the exchange, although there are temporary distortions).

[Lawrence of Arabia]

yeah I know, cronos had said that it was not normal, then I responded, then he edited, so I had to edit it agin

[Flubber]

and the result of a higher long term price is that

1. it is economic to rework older wells or to use expensive methods to garner ven more production

2. All sorts of alternatives become economic-- these take a long time and are long range projects but ethanol, wind, tidal, hydro, coal, nuclear etc etc are all now being more seriously considered.

3. There will be "some" conservation. We have not seen that much yet since many conservation methods involve an up-front additional cost but the realities of higher oil prices ( and its impacts on gasoline) "should" start to have an impact on consumer behavior. I say "should" since I saw less changes in driving habits than I expected when gasoline skyrocketed

[CrONoS]

Yep I know.
My sentence was too much confusing, and I do not got any clue to how to say it well in english without creating confusion.

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
yeah I know, cronos had said that it was not normal, then I responded, then he edited, so I had to edit it agin

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Flubber
and the result of a higher long term price is that

1. it is economic to rework older wells or to use expensive methods to garner ven more production

2. All sorts of alternatives become economic-- these take a long time and are long range projects but ethanol, wind, tidal, hydro, coal, nuclear etc etc are all now being more seriously considered.

3. There will be "some" conservation. We have not seen that much yet since many conservation methods involve an up-front additional cost but the realities of higher oil prices ( and its impacts on gasoline) "should" start to have an impact on consumer behavior. I say "should" since I saw less changes in driving habits than I expected when gasoline skyrocketed

This isn't inconsistant with Peak Oil theory.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

and the result of a higher long term price is that

1. it is economic to rework older wells or to use expensive methods to garner ven more production

2. All sorts of alternatives become economic-- these take a long time and are long range projects but ethanol, wind, tidal, hydro, coal, nuclear etc etc are all now being more seriously considered.

3. There will be "some" conservation. We have not seen that much yet since many conservation methods involve an up-front additional cost but the realities of higher oil prices ( and its impacts on gasoline) "should" start to have an impact on consumer behavior. I say "should" since I saw less changes in driving habits than I expected when gasoline skyrocketed

which would

4. lead to a decrease in the demand (and price) of oil until it is equal to the price of the alternates.

but the price is determined by the most inefficient producer (even it's trading price on the exchange, although there are temporary distortions).

you tellin me that the most inefficient producers costs have increased by $35 per barrel since Jan 2004?

edit: jeez all these edits.

edit2: dont worry about my feelings, what goes on here has nothing to do with real life ,and should all be water under the bridge

[Kidlicious]

Anyway LoA, sorry if I was rude, but I just prefer more than just "what?"

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
you tellin me that the most inefficient producers costs have increased by $35 per barrel since Jan 2004?

Probably not quit as much since supply is in the process of catching up with demand at the moment, I think. But generally that's the case.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

How do you figure? Do you have a source which states that oil production costs have increased substantially?

edit: and if production costs are up, then why do oil companies have record profits?

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious


This isn't inconsistant with Peak Oil theory.

But believeing the market and society will cope, is.

All the Peak OIl advocates I have read go on to predict carastophe

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
How do you figure? Do you have a source which states that oil production costs have increased substantially?

I googled "expensive oil" and this is the first thing.

Shell, Exxon tap expensive oil sands & gas, oil reserves dwindle.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Flubber
But believeing the market and society will cope, is.

No one seems to talk about that much. The truth is we don't know for sure.

All the Peak OIl advocates I have read go on to predict carastophe

In varying degrees. I think some of them just say there will be problems and admit that they don't really know how severe they will be.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Two things:

Shell, based in London and The Hague, reported Feb. 3 that reserves fell in 2004 because it found enough oil to replace just 15 percent to 25 percent of what the company pumped. BP replaced 89 percent of production, the company said Feb. 8.

That means that they HAVNT switched over yet to the more expensive oil sands. If they had, they would be meeting reserves.

2. This is a result of higher oil prices, not a cause of it. They are investing into these new sands NOW because they know that prices will remain high for a long time. There is no evidence on this article that they are pumping significant amounts of oil that is increasing the price due to increasing production costs.

A 15-year decline in oil reserves is spurring companies such as Royal Dutch/Shell Group, Exxon Mobil Corp. and ChevronTexaco Corp. to spend $76 billion in the next decade to boost supplies of oil from tar sands and diesel fuel from Qatari natural gas. Oil executives say they have no choice but to try alternatives to drilling because there is not much more crude to be found in their current fields.

[Kataphraktoi]

No one seems to talk about that much. The truth is we don't know for sure

the market always comes up with a alternative when forced to, out of neccesity.

disaster scenarios