CanPol: Race to the Finish

[KrazyHorse]

To piss you off.

[KrazyHorse]

Damnit. I need an autocensor. I keep blurting out the truth.

[notyoueither]

Good gambit, but not this time.

I was, of course, referring to people who are beating seperatist drums and hoping to capitalise on people as they become more frustrated.

It does have to do with politics, but not my personal reaction in this case.

[RedFred]

While I appreciate Flinx's periodic seat predictions, I'm not sure I can agree with them, particularly in Quebec. There were some razor thin Liberal victories last time around. Shouldn't surging Conservative and dropping Liberal support (to the point where they are about even) be more favorable to the Bloc?

[notyoueither]

I've been listening to seperatists dialing up Rutherford for a couple of years. They've beaten on him to the point that he says... 'wait til the election, and then...'

I do believe that this election is a point of departure for Western politics. Another Liberal government and the voices of the malcontents will be joined by many, many others. Any other result and you can pack that claptrap up again for another many years.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by RedFred
While I appreciate Flinx's periodic seat predictions, I'm not sure I can agree with them, particularly in Quebec. There were some razor thin Liberal victories last time around. Shouldn't surging Conservative and dropping Liberal support (to the point where they are about even) be more favorable to the Bloc?

According to pundits, they are taking support from the Bloc.

It sort of makes sense. People who hate the Liberal way of doing things. The Tories were a joke at best, and maybe severely socially conservative at worst.

The resurrection started well before Christmas. I posted an article about it where Chantelle Hebert related that Charest gave Harper the kiss of federalist life.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither
I've been listening to seperatists dialing up Rutherford for a couple of years. They've beaten on him to the point that he says... 'wait til the election, and then...'

Who the **** is Rutherford, other than the first premier of Alberta?

[Bosh]

"The NDP vote and the Green vote have gravitated towards the Conservatives," Gregg said.

How?

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse

Who the **** is Rutherford, other than the first premier of Alberta?

Talk show host based in Calgary on the rather Conservative Chorus network.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Bosh

How?

The Liberals gained percentage from Green and NDP. Now those percentages are going to the Tories.

They aren't necessarily the same voters.

Most sense I can make of it.

[notyoueither]

One can expect more NDP support to bleed to the Liberals to 'stop the evil oppressors', or some such. That is Layton's nightmare.

Unfortunately for him and Martin, nothing stops the Tories when they capture the centre.

I just can't believe Harper is so close to capturing the centre.

[KrazyHorse]

Other than wacky BC voters, you're probably right.

[Flubber]

The latest polls are starting to look too good for the Conservatives-- I'm not sure I trust them yet.

It would be nice for the Conservatives to make a breakthrough in Quebec. Even one seat would be welcome.

The debates will be HUGE HUGE-- apparently the media is saying Martin needs to shine or he doesn't win since the expectation on him is higher

[Ben Kenobi]

Shouldn't surging Conservative and dropping Liberal support (to the point where they are about even) be more favorable to the Bloc?

Yeah, that's what I figured would happen. Conservatives would get a couple of seats at around 20 percent in the polls, the Liberals have 8, and the Bloc get 65.

However, once the Conservatives start outpolling the Liberals, then things start to get really interesting.

[Ben Kenobi]

It sort of makes sense. People who hate the Liberal way of doing things. The Tories were a joke at best, and maybe severely socially conservative at worst.

You also have to consider that the Bloc holds some very socially conservative ridings in Quebec. If these folks have a viable alternative to the Liberals and the Bloc, then all these folks come into play.