It's the College Football thread!

[Japher]

I don't know what I meant. I think I was thinking that Boston College was joing the big east, but I'm wrong.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Though Boston College is BC . BU is Boston University, who did have a DivIII team, if I'm not mistaken, but I believe it was folded. BC was already a member of the Big East who left for the ACC becoming the third traitor .

[DanS]

Next year, they move to 5 BCS bowls, right?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Correct.

So if that was the system this year, Ohio State, Oregon, and ND would probably all get in, and Miami, Auburn & UCLA (well depending on who wins the SEC Championship game, I guess) would be the top teams shut out.

edit: Oops... NOT automatic 4 at-large. 3 at-large and one:

conference champion from among Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Western Athletic Conferences will automatically qualify to play in a BCS bowl if it is: (1) ranked among the top 12 teams in the final BCS Standings; or (2) ranked among the top 16 teams in the final BCS Standings and ranked higher than the champion of one of the conferences whose champion has an annual automatic berth in a BCS bowl.

This allows 4 at large, but it is not automatic. It is only if no team from one of the aforementioned conferences can finish higher than 12 or higher than 16 but ahead of an automatic entrant.

Also:

After the 2007 season, automatic qualification standards will be applied to all 11 Division I-A conferences to determine the number of conferences whose champion will automatically qualify for a BCS game for the next two seasons ('08 and '09). Each conference will be evaluated on each of the previous four seasons ('04, '05, '06, '07), based on membership during the '07 season. The champions of no fewer than five conferences and no more than seven conferences will have annual automatic berths in the BCS bowl games played following the 2008 and 2009 regular season.

All from:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/index2.cfm?page=structure

[Imran Siddiqui]

Btw, that...

The champions of no fewer than five conferences and no more than seven conferences will have annual automatic berths in the BCS bowl games played following the 2008 and 2009 regular season.

Probably means the Big East isn't going anywhere, because I don't see any mid-major who is going to usurp the Big East any time soon.

[Donegeal]

Polls are stupid. Throw rocks at them.

Playoffs!!!

[Edit] Except for the Apolyton Poll. It is the only legit scientific college football poll in exsistance. [/edit]

[reismark]

THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 7

My sincerest apologies for the absence of your BCS fix last week. I promise it will not happen again. (Well, with less than a week until the bowls are officially announced, it can't, as next week will likely be nothing more than a summary piece.)

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking.

1. Southern California [1, 1, 2]
2. Texas [2, 2, 1]
3. Penn State [3, 4, 3]
4. Louisiana State [4, 3, 7]
5. Virginia Tech [5, 5, 5]
6. Ohio State [6, 6, 4]
7. Oregon [8, 8, 6]
8. Notre Dame [7, 7, 10]
9. Miami [10, 10, 8]
10. Auburn [9, 9, 11]
11. West Virginia [13, 12, 9]
12. California-Los Angeles [11, 11, 12]

-----

Since there were no shifts in the top twelve this week, one would conclude that everyone took care of business the way they were supposed to this week, and my answer to that would be... not necessarily. There's the great Notre Dame dilemma (which I'll get into more detail with in a little bit), and then, of all teams, there's Texas. Their struggles against Texas A&M this week, while not unforgivable, had the effect of increasing USC's margin for error this week against UCLA. It's going to take a blowout win by UCLA now to knock USC out of the title game for Penn State, whereas before a victorious close effort might have been enough.

As far as Notre Dame goes, the pundits are saying that they locked up a bid with their survival effort against Stanford. Contrary to what I've been saying for weeks, the pundits are probably correct. Although it would go against established precedent (unless LSU & Virginia Tech both manage to blow their conference championship tilts this week), there is a history for the Irish getting selected at (what will likely be) Oregon's expense: The last time they participated in a BCS bowl, it was as a #11 seed in 2000, getting plucked for the Fiesta over teams like Virginia Tech (#5) and Nebraska (#8). The only issue left in this debate, I think, is whether or not the team that is ultimately left out will place the blame where it belongs: not on Notre Dame, but on the Big East and the automatic bid that they don't deserve.

Next week in this section, I'll be discussing my proposed standard for BCS automatic bids, and seeing how it would apply to each of the six major conferences in recent years. Before I move on, though, I feel like digressing a little bit:

THE WACKED-OUT FOOTBALL WISDOM OF MY FATHER

I was watching the Notre Dame/Stanford game with my father, mostly in silence until it got to the denoument: Irish lead 30-24, first & goal for the Cardinal at the Irish 4. Ostrander rushes to the left for no gain, and Weis calls timeout to stop the clock with 1:50 to go in the game, which causes my father to start shouting vehemently at the TV. When I ask him why, he claims, "There was no need to call the timeout because Stanford was going to spike the ball on the next play."

That, of course, leads me to do a double-take. Why on God's green-earth would Stanford want to spike the ball and waste a play there? They have second-and-goal, which means that barring a penalty (something that they can't assume will happen) they have only three plays to work with in order to score the touchdown and go-ahead extra point. There's almost two minutes left on the clock, and logically, one would think that they'd want to take as much time off the clock as possible so as to limit Notre Dame's opportunity to answer back (which they ended up doing since Stanford scored on the next play). So not only would spiking the ball take away a play and a shot to score the touchdown, it prevents them from running the clock down as well. There would have been plenty of time to call the play in the huddle (the reason my father gave for the spike) even with the clock running, as well.

Can anyone who thinks outside the box possibly think of a reason why Stanford would want to spike the ball in that situation? Because I've been trying for two days, and I can't...

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected automatic conference berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie. A team's name in boldface indicates that they have officially clinched the associated conference's automatic berth.

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Penn State
Big 12: Texas
Pac-10: Southern California
SEC: Louisiana State
At-Large #1: Notre Dame (Independent)
At-Large #2: Ohio State (Big Ten)

-----

Most of the excitement in this week's games lies with the conference championships, and while I agree with Stewart Mandel's assertion that conference championship games are largely ill-advised and meaningless (there's no way that Florida State or Colorado should be anywhere near a BCS berth after the way they've played in recent week), I disagree with his assertion that USC/UCLA is the week's biggest game, simply because as a friend of mine pointed out to me this Saturday, there's nothing on the line but school pride. (USC would win the conference outright with a win; if UCLA won, it would result in a three-way tie between USC, Oregon & UCLA, which USC would ultimately emerge from due to UCLA's loss to Arizona and USC's win over Oregon.)

Nope, the biggest game of the week is once again in the best conference in the land, the SEC, where not only is the conference's automatic bid up for grabs between two teams that deserve it in LSU & Georgia (not the case in USC/UCLA) but a strong regional rivalry exists to sell the game (neither of which the other two conference championships can claim) and a heartwarming national story - in LSU's attempts through sport to help the Gulf region recover from this year's devastasting hurricanes - has a chance to further play out (which none of the other three games can claim).

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
Pac-10 champion Southern California & Big 12 champion Texas are automatically placed into the Rose Bowl due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. ACC champion Virginia Tech is placed into the Orange Bowl and SEC champion Louisiana State is placed into the Sugar Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins. The only bowl to lose a traditional tie-in is the Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 champion Texas) so it gets first choice of the remaining teams.

This is where we enter the great unknown: Usually, the selections to fill the remaining slots after the national championship game and the traditional conference tie-ins are done in accord with BCS rankings, meaning that the Fiesta would select Big Ten champion Penn State as its first representative. However, a strong case can be made that the Fiesta would select independent Notre Dame to host its game based on prestige and prior precedent. Hence, this week, I am providing two sets of projected matchups based on this deviation.

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's payout and its priority stature in previous years. (Each bowl submits a list of its top three teams, and the bowl is given the highest-listed team available based on the bowl's priority.) The BCS has established the following priority order based on these factors for this year's bowls:

1. Orange Bowl
2. Fiesta Bowl
3. Sugar Bowl

By rule, if a conference champion is available for this last stage of allocations, they cannot be ranked third on the list that a bowl submits.

Fiesta Bowl Selects Penn State
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State v. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Louisiana State v. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame

In this scenario, Big East champion West Virginia is the only conference champion not allocated, and trails both Big Ten at-large Ohio State & independent at-large Notre Dame in the BCS rankings. Hence, they would be ranked second on all lists.

The likelist means of allocation in this scenario is that Notre Dame is selected first by the Orange Bowl, despite their BCS ranking being poorer than Ohio State's. West Virginia would then be selected second by the Fiesta Bowl, in order so that a matchup between members of the same conference does not occur. Finally, Ohio State would be selected third by the Sugar Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl Selects Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame v. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Louisiana State v. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Penn State

In this scenario, Big Ten at-large Ohio State is the only non-conference champion not allocated. Hence, they would be ranked third on all lists, and would be allocated to the Sugar Bowl. Big Ten champion Penn State would be selected first by the Orange Bowl due to its strong BCS ranking, while Big East champion West Virginia would be left to face Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.

[DanS]

Very interesting scenarios. I was wondering about the following...

By rule, if a conference champion is available for this last stage of allocations, they cannot be ranked third on the list that a bowl submits.

What is the text of this rule? I note that Ohio State is the co-champ of the Big Ten, even though they didn't receive the automatic bid for BCS.

It doesn't seem right that the bowl with the highest priority has to pick the runt of the litter, W. Va.

[Imran Siddiqui]

simply because as a friend of mine pointed out to me this Saturday

Oh, and seeing how the NCAA wants at least 5 conference champions to qualify for the BCS, anyone 'blaming' the Big East should get their heads checked unless they also believe that the NFL should just seed teams 1-12 and play for the SuperBowl that way .

[DanS]

To my mind, W. Va. "deserves" a bid by virtue of it being in the top 12. However, it doesn't deserve an automatic bid, since the Big East is a weak conference and it's not in the top 8. Of course, the criteria for actual bid selection once you take care of the automatic bids are not favorable to West Virginia.

[reismark]

Yup, you were who I was referring to, Imran. (I couldn't mention you by name since I post this on several sites, but take solace in that fact.)

What is the text of this rule? I note that Ohio State is the co-champ of the Big Ten, even though they didn't receive the automatic bid for BCS.

Thanks for alerting this to my attention, Dan S, because it doesn't read quite that way. The rule actually reads like this:

Any BCS bowl game(s) still remaining unfilled will submit a listing of its top three team selections to fill its at-large slot. Any team that is guaranteed a berth in a BCS bowl game and that has not already placed in such a game must be listed among such bowl game's first two selections. Each BCS bowl will then be given its highest preference of teams.

So the 1-2 rule could also apply to a non-BCS conference team like Utah last year, or to an at-large team that finishes third in the BCS standings (another bylaw I just uncovered).

Oh, and seeing how the NCAA wants at least 5 conference champions to qualify for the BCS, anyone 'blaming' the Big East should get their heads checked

You do realize that the Big East is the sixth conference, right? And that the other five conferences would have no problem ever fulfilling both the BCS's standard and my (stronger) one?

Oregon should be going bowling while West Virginia sits at home. Period. And the fact that they're not is the BCS's fault for still including the Big East, not Notre Dame.

[DanS]

The 1-2 rule seems to be the selections after the round of hosts being chosen (i.e., there are two different rounds). So the Fiesta Bowl wouldn't be stuck choosing West Virginia. That would go to the Sugar Bowl, because it couldn't choose a third at-large team.

This fulfills the intent of sticking the lowest listed bowl with the worst matchup.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by reismark
You do realize that the Big East is the sixth conference, right? And that the other five conferences would have no problem ever fulfilling both the BCS's standard and my (stronger) one?

Yes, but the point is that the BCS favors the conference champions, just as the NFL favors division champs, even if there is a 'Wild Card' who has a better record. And if either Colorado or FSU wins next Saturday, the Big East won't be sixth... not by a long shot. And if Georgia wins, then the Big East will be barely sixth.

Oregon should be going bowling while West Virginia sits at home. Period. And the fact that they're not is the BCS's fault for still including the Big East, not Notre Dame.

West Virginia would beat Oregon. And yes, it is NOTRE DAME's fault. Oregon didn't win their conference championship, therefore they are battling for the at-large. They know the system favors the conference champs. Notre Dame is getting an at large berth, denying Oregon. Oregon in no way, shape, or form would be able to get West Virginia's slot, and wouldn't have for the past 10 years. So now, its not WVU's fault and never was.

Quite aptly, most of the ire is being directed as the Irish.

I figure you are the person who blames the division winner in the other conference in the NFL rather than the one in the same conference as the team that got 'gypped'.

[DanS]

The Irish can't win in this situation. According to Imran, the conference champs always have the excuse that they are conference champs. Notre Dame is an Independent (a hallowed tradition), like Navy and Army, and is therefore always rightly to blame.

What Imran is choosing to forget is that college football is dissimilar to the NFL, in that college football includes independents and lesser Division I-A conferences, while the NFL does not contemplate such a thing.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I'm not forgetting anything. Get in a conference or fight your way in yourself.

As long as ND is an indy, they will always suffer the blame. Look who most of the sports shows are asking. They aren't saying does WVU deserve it... they are asking about ND.

And Hell, ND is affiliated with the Big East in everything else. Get the sweetheart deal (keep your TV deal, leeway in scheduling) and have an easier way to the BCS.