German Elections -- Results

[notyoueither]

The offer to try should first go to Merkel, shouldn't it?

[Boris Godunov]

I don't think he's obligated to pick her party, even though they will have a 3-vote edge. At least, that was the gist of what I read.

[notyoueither]

Bypassing the most numerous party would cause the **** to hit the fan in most countries with parliaments. I'm not sure how close the Germans are to Westminster though.

[kronic]

Far away from Westminster. Wouldn't be the first time that the strongest party has to go into opposition. And since the CDU/CSU just has ~35 % of the votes it wouldn't be undemocratic if there was another coalition with 50+ % of the votes.

[notyoueither]

But isn't the opportunity given first to the largest party?

There is a difference between the largest party declining because they cannot cobble together a majority and not being asked at all.

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Germany needs to go forward, not backwards.

We have to go forward, not backwards, upwards, not forwards, and always twirling, twirling, twirling, towards freedom!

[Colon™]

Originally posted by notyoueither
But isn't the opportunity given first to the largest party?

That's tradition but now law. The president theoretically could propose anyone he likes, but that person has to get the majority of the votes in the parliament in order to get appointed as chancellor, which is why they go through the process of coalition building. (I only quickly checked the German constitution so don't shoot me if I'm wrong: http://www.aceproject.org/main/samples/lf/lfx_l015.pdf )

[Colon™]

Originally posted by Atahualpa
This is what vienase paper die Presse wrote about the german elections:



Summary:
Germany has not shown a clear sign for a political change, rather expressed its own ambiguity. A voting result as mirror of the german soul, on the one hand the wish for reforms and on the other hand the fear for it. The result of these ambiguous feelings is what we were seeing all the years: stagnation.

My understanding is that they wanted to vote for the CDU on the one hand, but didn't like Merkel, and wanted to vote for Schröder on the other hand, but didn't like the SDP. It's hard to send an unambigious signal if you aren't offered an easy picking.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Colon

That's tradition but now law. The president theoretically could propose anyone he likes, but that person has to get the majority of the votes in the parliament in order to get appointed as chancellor, which is why they go through the process of coalition building. (I only quickly checked the German constitution so don't shoot me if I'm wrong: http://www.aceproject.org/main/samples/lf/lfx_l015.pdf )

That's sort of what I thought, but a bit different.

Here it would be the GG asking the leader of the largest party 'can you form a majority?' and then, 'if you can't, will you govern as a minority?' He says no majority, but he would try minority. The GG goes to the next guy, 'can you form a majority?' 'Yes.' He's the next PM.

The PM wouldn't be appointed in the Commons, but his government would have to survive confidence (first vote, Throne Speech).

So it's a bit different, but the principles sound the same.

[RGBVideo]

Germany has not shown a clear sign for a political change

How's this:
Major parties got pwned, radicals gained votes. It's a clear mandate for a change.

Merkel didn't get >40% because she campaigned too safely, ducking the issues and trying to appease everyone.

Could someone from Germany answer my questions, btw:

How blindly do the invididual MEP's follow the party policy in Germany? How well is the Linke's party structure organised? SPD could try to form a majority with the Greens if they succeed in wooing enough invididual commies to support them.

[Harovan]

Originally posted by Colon
My understanding is that they wanted to vote for the CDU on the one hand, but didn't like Merkel, and wanted to vote for Schröder on the other hand, but didn't like the SDP. It's hard to send an unambigious signal if you aren't offered an easy picking.

You are probably right on spot about the CDU and Merkel. I am an East German living in arch-catholic and dark black (CSU dominant) Bavaria, and I know quite some people here, who were CSU voters for ages, but this time voted SPD, because they outright refuse to vote for a possible chancellor from East Germany. (EDIT: And as if this weren't already enough, she's also a woman - hint: the catholic church doesn't have female clerics - and as evangelic she has the wrong confession: /EDIT)

This would also explain the poor result of the CSU in Bavaria (usually about 60%, even up to 2/3, this time below 50%). Of course, this will never been officially admitted (out of PC reasons), but I have the gut feeling, that the CDU could have comfortably won with a West German candidate.

[Harovan]

Originally posted by VJ
Could someone from Germany answer my questions, btw:

How blindly do the invididual MEP's follow the party policy in Germany? How well is the Linke's party structure organised? SPD could try to form a majority with the Greens if they succeed in wooing enough invididual commies to support them.

Following party policy is very widespread, dissidents happen, but are usually isolated and brought back in line quick.

The Linke is still unorganized, because it was founded mere 2 months ago out of an East German party (PDS, which is well organized) and a West German organization (WASG, poorly organized).

The SPD will hardly try a minority government tolerated by the left. The trenches between both are too deep and it would contain too much political dynamite. Besides, the very reason of the existence of the Linke is the fact, that the SPD has drifted too far toward the center, leaving its left flank open. They would hardly support the positions of the SPD.

[Harovan]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
My understanding is that if they are unsuccessful in forming a government, then the President gets to appoint a minority government. I'm guessing he'd appoint Schroeder's Social Dems, yes?

Hardly, considering the fact, that he was elected for president with the votes of the conservatives, against the candidate of the SPD. Of course, as head of state he should be above party politics - and I don't accuse him otherwise - so far he's been a good president, but considering the fact, that the CDU has a slim majority, he would rather choose his roots, i.e. the conservative canditate.

[siron]

My understanding is that they wanted to vote for the CDU on the one hand, but didn't like Merkel, and wanted to vote for Schröder on the other hand, but didn't like the SDP.

My interpretation of the result:

They didnt want red-green for sure. (they couldnt do anything without cdu anyway...so everything was far to slow.)

Merkel was 24 points ahead a few months ago. Because the west german left didnt vote the ex-commies pds.

Then linke was founded by two charismatic figures (Lafontaine and Gysi). Further, Merkel was absolutely sure that she had won already. She asked an ex-lawyer and "tax-expert" to join there team but I dont think that any of his extreme proposals would help us. This guy is rarely a tax expert...he is more like A. Laffer a populist.

So the germans actually want a grand coalition. And with this surprising result it seems that Schroeder should be chancellor. The SPD claims now they are the party with the most seats because they separate between CDU and CSU now.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Colon


My understanding is that they wanted to vote for the CDU on the one hand, but didn't like Merkel, and wanted to vote for Schröder on the other hand, but didn't like the SDP. It's hard to send an unambigious signal if you aren't offered an easy picking.

yah, well, thats so, cough, cough.