German Elections -- Results

[DanS]

In the other thread with response to Siren:

Actually I am proud of his resistance with respect to the lies we heard from the Bush-administration.

Don't you have enough domestic issues on which to vote? I'm surprised that you're willing to forgive Schroeder's long list of failures for one largely irrelevant success.

[germanos]

Originally posted by DanS
Is this a proper description: The CDU/CSU did worse than expected; the FDP did better than expected; the SPD did better than expected; the greens did worse than expected?

Depends who did the expecting

It looks like the two main parties got a beating, and the voters are looking outside the mainstream politics (FDP=liberals and Linke=left wing).

Despite all the rethoric you'll hear, it's clear from the stats that both SPD and CDU/CSU have lost to FDP and Linke, with the Greens staying put.

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by DanS
Is this a proper description: The CDU/CSU did worse than expected; the FDP did better than expected; the SPD did better than expected; the greens did worse than expected?

Yep, except that AFAIK the Greens weren't really expected much better, they basically are on the same level as in 2002, with only minor losses. But the rest is correct, and the results were pretty surprising.

[Atahualpa]

[Q=DanS]Don't you have enough domestic issues on which to vote? I'm surprised that you're willing to forgive Schroeder's long list of failures for one largely irrelevant success.[/Q]

If you'd have seen the Head-Head with Schröder and Merkl, you'd have noticed that it was almost only about domestic issues. Mainly fiscal and employment policies.

[BeBMan]

Yeah, Schröder tried a bit to play the "I'm a man of peace, while Merkel would follow the US into war"-card, but it didn't play much of a role in this election, I guess mainly because another war isn't at the table now.

[DanS]

That's what I expected and that's why I'm wondering why Iraq is a factor for siron.

Yep, except that AFAIK the Greens weren't really expected much better, they basically are on the same level as in 2002, with only minor losses. But the rest is correct, and the results were pretty surprising.

The FDP did a whole lot better than expected, right? The FDP was being hammered in the last polls that I saw.

[BeBMan]

Yes, the FDP was better. But the CDU was expected much, much better, and this is really quite weak for the chances they had, if we look on polls from the last months.

[DanS]

To my mind, this is a slightly unfortunate outcome. The two main parties got beaten, but they likely will form the government. The SPD will be tempted to shift left to block its left flank, but will have to play nice in a CDU/CSU center-right government.

[DanS]

I guess you could have a Frankenstein gov't. CDU/CSU + FDP + Greens. That would be a strange beast.

[BeBMan]

Yeah, noone wanted it, but now they have to deal with it.

However, it is still unclear if a grand coalition is really that bad. Of course, everyone complains that it is bad for democracy, that there's no real opposition anymore etc. but otoh in many issues both big parties were already forced to work together before this election, since the SPD/Greens had the majority in the parliament, while the CDU ruled in the Bundesrat, the parliament of the federal states, which has much influence on many laws. Sometimes that led to deadlock, but in other cases noone could afford to simply block decisions without damaging its own position.

CDU/CSU + FDP + Greens would be theoretically possible but with all the "hostilities" esp. between FDP and Greens I'd say this is highly unlikely.

[DanS]

Well, I guess this means the end for Schroeder, right? Who picks the chancellor? Does the chancellor then ask the party with the highest number of votes to form a gov't?

[Atahualpa]

This is discussed as well, but it's unlikely that the greens will follow. They will totally drown and will have to follow vote with parties they usually campaign against. I'd consider it political suicide. They had troubles promoting their agenda under Schröder, it'd be impossible to do under a government that is more to the right.

[Atahualpa]

Originally posted by DanS
Well, I guess this means the end for Schroeder, right? Who picks the chancellor? Does the chancellor then ask the party with the highest number of votes to form a gov't?

The president says who's going to appoint a govt.

[siron]

http://www.wahlrecht.de/

21:00 Uhr - Mehr Überhangmandate als 2002

(wz) Die bisher vorliegenden Ergebnisse lassen eine wesentlich größere Zahl von Überhangmandaten als bei der letzten Bundestagswahl erwarten. Diese werden voraussichtlich vor allem die SPD stärken. Es ist nicht einmal ausgeschlossen, daß die Sozialdemokraten auf diesem Wege trotz deutlich weniger Zweitstimmen als CDU und CSU zusammen die stärkte Fraktion im Bundestag stellen wird.


This would explain his behaviour in the "Elephantenrunde".

[BeBMan]

Yep, normally it is about the highest number. But with the results so close it is quite difficult now. IIRC last time the CDU thought they were winning while later in the evening it turned out that it was Schroeder again.

For now they do the usual game -- each side claims victory.