It's the College Football thread!

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by Eroberer
I thought you all would really like to keep up on the world of college basketball, which is to say that you'd like to keep up with Carolina. And I know you all do, you're just being modest.

I too like college basketball. Especially since Michigan State Men's have been to the final 4, 4 out of 7, I believe. I think they are sweet 16, 7 of the last 8.

Also, isnt Michigan State ranked preseason #1 in 2 different publications and in the top 3 in 7.

Or were you talking about women's basketball. Michigan State finished 2nd in the nation last year.

But lets remember this is a football thread.

The beauty of this season for Michigan State is...
THEY WEREN'T SUPPOSED TO DO ANYTHING THIS YEAR.

Next year Stanton comes back a senior. Ringer will be a Sophomore. Trannon, even though he is listed as a Senior, has 1 more year of elgibility if he chooses. Caultrict is coming back. Most of the other receivers are coming back. I'd honestly have to say that State should be the Big 10 favorite next year (at least in the runnung) and a preaseason Top 10.

They just gotta figure out how to stop blowing big games that the have control of.

That the difference between their basketball program and their footbal program. And as much as it pains me to say it, thats why they are a 2nd tier football program and teams like OSU and Michigan are 1st tier. Hopefully that will change.

[Kuciwalker]

Er, 601 posts...

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by DanS
JHC. His predictor has ND ranked 4th. Interestingly, his predictor ranks Michigan 8th, which I feel is a better representation of the team than the 25th ranking of ELO-CHESS ranking. People picked Michigan to win against Penn State in a very close game and their intuition was on the money.

He also ranks the SEC as only the third best conference in the country, although he ranks the top 3 conferences closely together. This also strikes me as accurate.

Thanks for the rundown.

I think his predictor is more or less spot on, although... Georgia 17th?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Next year Stanton comes back a senior.

IF he comes back . He probably could be drafted highly if he left this year.

[Guynemer]

The early rumor is that he will be returning to State. If that indeed does come to pass... scary.

[Jonny]

Originally posted by Eroberer
Also, I would like to say that Brandan Wright, who signed with Carolina today, was previously considered a veritable lock to dook. UNC was considered 4th in a group of 4 contending for this services of the #1 PF in the nation, so it was a very good surprise.

People have been saying some pretty amazing things about him... I suppose I should go see him play sometime this winter. Not that I'll be cheering for him at UNC or anything...

Now back to your regularly scheduled football. (Vandy and UT waning after starting strong... )

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by Guynemer


I think his predictor is more or less spot on, although... Georgia 17th?

I always thought the predictor was his best. It seems to predict upsets, find diamonds in the rough and put some big name over-rated teams teams in their place.

[Drake Tungsten]

SO WHAT if it was dumb luck?! Plenty of teams in the Top 10 beat teams that aren't in the Top 10 by dumb luck. They get a lucky turnover (think Miami-Clemson earlier this year), or a good call, or whatever. NC State almost beat Virginia Tech, 20-16, this season, for example.

Yep. Nebraska's only loss, for example, was a result of dumb luck that rescued current BCS #7 Texas Tech. Nebraska isn't even in the top 25 of the AP or Coaches' poll, let alone the top ten. And, even as a fan, I don't think they have a right to be. Close losses to top teams don't mean anything; as Charlie Weis said, a loss is still a loss.

[DanS]

A loss is still a loss. No doubt.

Really, as an ND fan, I'm not concerned about this at all. Presumably, over the course of the rest of the season, the "prediction" ranking will converge more-or-less with the CHESS-ELO ranking.

For instance, if Notre Dame really is the fourth best team by "prediction", then by all means it should win the rest of its games handily and start climbing the ranks in CHESS-ELO. If Michigan really is the 8th best team by "prediction", it will win the rest of its games but the OSU game.

11 or 12 games in a season should be enough for these rankings to converge to a reasonable difference. The precision may not be all that great, but it still should be pretty much OK. If it ends up not being OK for Notre Dame, then the system will be changed to make it more favorable to Notre Dame in the future. I still think the AP poll is the gold standard, but it's biased. If people get their panties in a twist over this bias, then I would be willing to look at any computer ranking that factors in strength of schedule as a major component.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I would be willing to look at any computer ranking that factors in strength of schedule as a major component.

Most of them have SOS as a factor. Some as a bigger factor and some smaller. Not sure which does which.

[Deity Dude]

Well, I think there is a problem in the NCAA mandating that points cannot be considered. Notre Dame is a great example.

Notre Dame lost in overtime to the #11 team (if points are considered) and by 3pts on the last play of the game to the #1 team.

Can anyone honestly say that if Notre Dame had lost those games 50-0 each that you would feel the same about Notre Dame as you do now.

Thats why people (the polls) have them ranked 9th, 11th and 12th whereas the NCAA mandated computer formula has them ranked 23rd but the computer formula that considers points ( and is felt to be most accurate by the person who wrote te formula) has them ranked 4th.

[Imran Siddiqui]

ONE computer formula that considers margin of victory. Its kind of silly to hear that the computers eliminate voter bias, and then you have people straining to say one computer ranking is better than the others!

[Deity Dude]

OK, here it goes

1. USC
2. Texas
3. Va Tech
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6. Texas Tech
7. UCLA
8. Fla St
9. Penn St.
10. Miami Fl

[Drake Tungsten]

Well, I think there is a problem in the NCAA mandating that points cannot be considered.

I agree. I understand that the NCAA doesn't want to encourage teams to run up the score on lesser opponents, but taking MOV out of the equation for the computer polls has made them less accurate.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Wasn't MOV taken out because some controversy or another about one team getting in over another because some thought they played in a weaker conference and so could run up the score more easily?

It used to be in there, after all.