CanPol: Gomery and a Looming Federal Election

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Is it conceivable that one or two from Quebec might cross to the Tories if they could extract suitable assurances from Harper?

It's conceivable but i wouldn't bet on their chances at re-election. And i don't think they could get assurances that would suit them as well as the rest of the Conservatives.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by notyoueither
... otherwise it could get pretty lonely during a possible referendum in Quebec should Charest lose his government.

Was listening to a guy from Sun publishing on one of the morning radio talk shows. He did not paint a picture that many Canadians should look forward to.

A devastated Liberal party, the Tories with few or no prominent voices in Quebec, and then Charest loses to the PQ.

Who campaigns for non?

You raise an interesting point. On the other hand, you could also ask " Who campaigns for Oui?".
The PQ is having a leadership crisis, with Bernard Landry being challenged every 6 months it seems. And the problem with the other potential leaders is that they're also associated with the old guard, which doesn't help since the independence movement is seen as an old option.
I guess a lot would depend on how much they can use Gomery to revive the movement.

[St Leo]

Kevin Brennan:
As Brault's testimony at the Gomery Inquiry leaks out, I've noticed some on the left (although certainly not all) bemoaning the gift all of this presents to Harper and the Conservatives. It's not much of a step from there to wishing, even subconsciously, that this had never come out.

You shouldn't do that.

One of the primary reasons the left has suffered in recent years is the widespread belief that government, and politicians, are corrupt, wasteful of money, and so forth. Yes, the sponsorship scandal and things like it certainly re-inforce that belief. But if you want voters to accept big social programs and other spending that may require tax hikes, you really need to rebuild a sense of trust in people. Social programs are only viable in the long term if you have clean and transparent government.

Voting for the Liberals to keep the Conservatives out may seem like a good idea in the short term, but in the long term, you're just promoting the basic idea that government is a useless and ineffective pit of bribery and embezzlement, because you keep electing people who see that as just part of the price of doing business. In the long run, that encourages people to think that government is never the best solution for a problem--and if they think that, then why would they ever vote for the NDP?

Clean government. It's not just the right thing to do--it's also smart politics.

In the long term, this could be a boon for the NDP (as long as there is no Unite the Left campaign; ugh).

[St Leo]

Odd stuff:
- Females have switched from Libs to all non-Lib parties
- Males have switched from Libs to Consies
- NDP has lost ground in the Maritimes
- NDP has lost ground among the under-25s

And, of course, the Ipsos-Reid poll disagrees about a bunch of stuff.

[St Leo]

"The Liberal party is starting to look like the `NDP lite' on social issues."
- Pat O'Brien, Liberal MP (London-Fanshawe)

The chap is thinking of switching parties.

[Kontiki]

It will be the Conservative's election to lose. I think they're up to the task.

[Ben Kenobi]

Thanks St. Leo

That's the data I was looking for last night, and couldn't find.

Awesome.

[Ben Kenobi]

Interesting.

The NDP is the party of the poor.

The Liberals of the rich

and the Conservatives of the Middle Class.

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Interesting.

Based on the EKOS poll that just came out, here would be my take on the numbers we would get.

Seat Share

CPC 51.2
BQ 20.3
LIB 17.6
NDP 10.3
GRN 0.7

EKOS poll results

36.2 Conservative
25.0 Liberals
20.5 NDP
12.6 BQ
5.0 GRN

I will laugh my ass of if that happens.

[Seeker]

Yeah gotta love that First Past the Post skewing...

[Jon Miller]

summary?

JM

[St Leo]

Of the $250 million the Liberals gave to various Quebec ad companies for no actual return, $2.5 million went back directly into the personal pockets of Liberal leaders. AKA embezzlement.

Now that this has come out, Liberals have sunk 20 points in the polls. The Conservatives have been the primary beneficiaries.

When the Conservatives, Bloc, and NDP agree that it's time for a new election, we'll have one.

[Jon Miller]

who are the conservatives?

JM

[Jon Miller]

are they like Asher and NYE?

or like, umm, Bush?

Jon Miller

[KrazyHorse]

Half NYE half Bush.